Peter Hodson: The investment game — even for professionals — is never an easy one
Have you ever made a very bad investment call? Sure, you have. We all have. Frankly, if you say you’ve never made any mistakes, then you aren’t trying hard enough, or you’re just lying. Otherwise, we would see your name at the top of all the world’s richest people lists.
But what about making a very public — and very wrong — investment call? Luckily for you, most of your mistakes are very private. Maybe not even your spouse knows about that time you lost $5,000 on a penny mining stock you heard about at a dinner party one day and bought with no research. But mistakes by investment industry professionals can be very public: splashed across research reports, talked about on television, and discussed and ridiculed in investment forums. It’s not fun making a mistake that is so widely known.
Sometimes, investment calls are just so wrong that they follow analysts and companies around for years. Let’s look at some absolute doozies over the years. We’ve chosen five, but, trust us, there are hundreds we could have chosen from. We’re not picking on anyone here, and we’re going to leave out names (Google will know if you really want the details). We just want to remind readers that the investment game — even for professionals — is never an easy one.
We’ll start with a very recent one. Just last week, with the threat of sanctions on China and the likelihood of market delistings in the United States, an extremely large and well-known U.S. investment bank put out a research note on March 14 saying the entire sector was ‘uninvestable.’
Talk about bad timing. Less than 48 hours after the research note was public, China announced a series of measures designed to prop up its financial markets and maintain international stock-market listings. Most Chinese stocks soared, some even had their biggest gains ever, as the index representing the sector had its biggest gain since 2008. Clients of the investment bank who sold missed out on gains of 30 to 40 per cent in less than 10 days. Ouch.
We have to go way back to 1997 for this one, and the infamous Bre-X Minerals Ltd. mining fraud. A very well-known analyst from a large Canadian bank drew a line in the sand with his famous quote above. But, of course, the gold wasn’t there, and $6 billion in stock disappeared as Bre-X went bankrupt. Still, 25 years later, no one has ever been convicted in this giant fraud.
The analyst carried the burden of that call around for years, but it hasn’t impacted him too much: he still works in the industry. And we must give him some slack. Part of the fraud was that someone was “salting” the cores, which involves adding gold to an ore sample. The analyst certainly could have “seen” some gold, but couldn’t have known that the gold in the sample came from elsewhere.
In 2016, a very large bank in the United Kingdom came out with a giant research report with the ominous title Sell Everything. It caused a stir as banks are usually conservative and the report oozed a sense of panic. Lots of readers thought it was a joke. But the bank was deadly serious. It was worried about lots of things, and to quote the report: “Investors face a cataclysmic year, and markets could fall 20 per cent. Oil could fall to US$16 per barrel.”
How did this call work out? Well, the S&P 500 has nearly tripled since the report, and oil, of course, is sitting around US$110 today. We’re not sure if the authors of this report still work in the industry.
We love this one, because it was so wrong, and the author of the research report refused to give up, reiterating his call 12 different times even as Netlfix Inc. shares soared, and Blockbuster LLC shares plummeted towards bankruptcy. It’s a good lesson to learn, in that the market is always right, even if you think you’re the one who is right.
This was a call from a research analyst at a global investment bank in the mid-2000s. Investors who followed it bought a stock that went to $0, and sold a stock that has risen almost 31,500 per cent since going public in 2001. But the analyst was not the only one who got this wrong. Blockbuster, it is widely rumoured, turned down a chance to buy Netflix for US$50 million. It is worth US$170 billion today.
Even investment firms can make very public mistakes. In April 2009, in the middle of the great financial crisis, a very well-known mutual- and hedge-fund company hosted a gala evening called A Night with The Bears. About 3,000 guests gathered at a fancy Toronto theatre, sipped champagne and listened to five famous short sellers who were espousing doom and gloom in the middle of the market downturn. One speaker noted the economy was not likely to recover “for 20 or 30 years.”
We attended this event, and it was very depressing. Walking out of the theatre, guests must have wondered why they owned anything at all. The world — according to the guest speakers — was indeed truly ending. Well, neither the fund company nor the guests knew it at the time, but this event was held less than a month after the absolute market bottom. Since then, the Dow Jones index is up almost six-fold. Another lesson here: When everyone is bearish, it is time to buy.
Peter Hodson, CFA, is founder and head of Research at 5i Research Inc., an independent investment research network helping do-it-yourself investors reach their investment goals. He is also portfolio manager for the i2i Long/Short U.S. Equity Fund. (5i Research staff do not own Canadian stocks. i2i Long/Short Fund may own non-Canadian stocks mentioned.)
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With increased adoption of cryptocurrencies and proliferation in the online gaming industry, Bitcoin casinos are becoming increasingly common. Bitcoin, being one of the alternative currencies, may offer immense advantages in security, anonymity, and speed of every transaction, from appealing to new and seasoned players. The following article will outline the main benefits of using Bitcoin for online casino betting and will describe in detail how this cryptocurrency enhances gaming.
For those interested in exploring the benefits of Bitcoin gaming, theonlinecasinos offers a carefully curated list of reliable Bitcoin casinos. Their guide helps players find the best options available, ensuring a seamless, secure, and rewarding gaming experience.
The main benefit linked to the use of Bitcoin in online casino betting is that it possesses high transaction speed. Unlike the bank transfers and card payments, which take several hours or even days, Bitcoin transactions take just minutes.
Fast transactions equal the ability for players to fund their accounts straight away with no need for confirmation. Since some gamers just want to get started immediately, or just simply cash out and go, this can come pretty in handy. While most bank transfers involve verification by means of a financial intermediary that is likely to be slow, Bitcoin involves a decentralized network of computers handling processing without any interference from an intermediary.
Deposits and withdrawals have made it possible for players to cut down or totally eliminate fees imposed by financial institutions through Bitcoin. Banks, credit organizations, and networks of all kinds impose a fee on any transaction, but especially international ones. Due to the fact that this is a network where users make transactions directly, the network fees for Bitcoin are minimal.
The lower fees translate to savings that the player will make every time a transfer is made. There are some online casinos that absorb even this negligible Bitcoin network fee; thus, this makes deposits and withdrawals absolutely free for players. To players usually performing lots of transactions or large quantities, this difference in fees may prove critical.
Bitcoin uses blockchain technology, one of the most secure and transparent systems in the world. All the transactions involved in blockchain are encrypted; hence, fraud and hacking have almost nil chances of being performed. Furthermore, there is no necessity for sharing personal data while using Bitcoin for online betting as your card number or bank details will not come into play.
In the case of Bitcoin, players can preserve anonymity, since for a transaction, one needs only a Bitcoin address. Hence, Bitcoin casinos are true Catch-22 for those who value privacy in financial operations and want to avoid unnecessary checks from banks and other institutions.
A lot of countries ban gambling or strictly regulate any operations including online casino transactions. This may raise serious barriers for players to access their favorite platforms or even to get accounts suspended. Bitcoin transactions do not go through the banking system and therefore are not regulated like traditional money. This means greater freedom for users.
For players whose countries have restricted gambling, Bitcoin is an easy way around any legal restrictions. For people in countries with unfinished developed banking or those, due to which one can’t access every type of payment, Bitcoin casinos are a great way to access different kinds of bets.
Most online casinos welcome the use of Bitcoin by giving bonuses for cryptocurrency choices. In many cases, higher welcome bonuses, cashback on deposits, free spins within the slot machines, and others are common.
The Bitcoin bonus can increase the player’s budget very much and bring extra value to players. Online casinos are happy to see this cryptocurrency, as it cuts some transaction processing costs for them, either. Because of that, promotion activities targeting depositors and withdrawers of Bitcoins can be regularly found.
Being a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin allows players to have flexible banking of their bankroll. Many users keep their winnings in the form of Bitcoins, since it can surge in price. This adds the opportunity to earn extra income from its volatility when Bitcoin prices surge upwards.
Using Bitcoin Many players keep their winnings in Bitcoin, due to the fact that its price might go up. In this case, casino winnings create passive income. But one should keep in mind that Bitcoin’s price also goes down, so this strategy is to be used with care.
Financial independence is an important component of success. To avoid wasting everything, you need to be able to save and invest. Thanks to this, it will be possible to create a financial cushion. You can get additional income with the help of brokers. Every adult can register on the Trade-X website and start trading activity. The latter is based on the conclusion of transactions for the purchase and sale of material values, currency, contacts and shares of well-known companies. As reviews show, the broker sets a minimum commission and charges the trader a certain amount after a successful profit. With the right approach and the ability to analyze data, the trader receives a tangible profit from his deals.
Let’s consider what the trader’s work is and read the real comments of Trade-X clients.
Choosing a source of income, many people monitor websites and look for what they write about the broker in reviews. After all, safety on the Internet, especially when entering your personal data and bank cards is very important. Newcomers who are just entering the market are especially concerned. It is known that the Trade-X company is officially registered in London and acts according to the legislation. It carries out work with an exchange expert and a hedge fund, has more than 200 assets. Trading conditions, including commissions and spreads, are transparent, which does not allow the broker to change them in its favor.
Participants of Medium, Linkedin, Reddit platforms often write good reviews that no fraudulent schemes were observed on the sites, and the support service always responded quickly to questions and any difficulties, if they arose. The broker company has an arsenal of trading tools, signals and training materials, where everyone can understand the nuances of the profession for free. The reviews also say that the terminals work well without delays, price movements are displayed on the charts. By the way, you can monitor the status of the launched order both from your computer and from your phone by installing the Trade-X broker application.
The provider offers trading platforms with access to many financial instruments. It is a kind of analytical center with access points to currencies.
The following are the features of operations:
Access to the platforms is open to adults who have completed the registration and document verification process. The minimum deposit is 500 dollars. After depositing this amount, you can start investing in any asset. You can follow the course of events by connecting to mobile Internet from anywhere in the city and even in the country. They write in the reviews that it is very convenient. The international resource Trade-X operates in 197 countries, so entry is free for those wishing to invest in the most popular resources. In case of difficulties with authorization, you can use the site mirror or connect VPN services.
More than 200 assets are presented on the site. It is easy to get confused when choosing from such an arsenal. However, experienced participants of the investment market recommend choosing currency pairs. In any case, it is necessary to be aware of possible rate drops or growth. You can learn this from the news, the current chart and your observations.
The most common trading options on the Trade-X website:
Trading on the stock exchange for beginners most often starts with currency pairs – they seem more familiar, clear and predictable. It is not difficult to calculate the dynamics of quotations with the large availability of tools and comprehensive assistance from the administration. Visual representation of price movements is significant for a trader, and the latest news in the world economy provides an additional stimulus for correct calculation of ask and bid.
Trade-X services have long been considered the gold standard of the industry. Since its foundation, the online broker has not stopped its development even for a day or an hour. Its services are becoming more and more technological and interesting for users. This allows to get a significant increase in the client base. Positive reviews allowed the company to stand out among other trading platforms, and assigning a personal manager to you will allow you to feel more confident if you are just at the start of trading.
NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”
Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.
Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.
Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.
In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.
The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.
Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.
The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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