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Four Years of Crisis: Charting Iran's Economy Under Trump – BNN

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(Bloomberg) —

Iran had barely started to reap the economic benefits of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers when Donald Trump withdrew and imposed sanctions so tight they plunged the country into its worst economic crisis since the 1980s.

Sworn in on Wednesday, the new U.S. president, Joe Biden, has already reversed some of his predecessor’s most controversial policies on immigration, climate and health. He’s also promised to re-engage with the Islamic Republic and picked some of the architects of the original pact for top policy posts.

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Even if sanctions are eventually eased again, Iran’s road to recovery could be even more fraught this time around. Below are five charts that show how the Iranian economy changed during the Trump years:

Iran’s economy contracted sharply during the Trump years. Unable to export most of its oil due to the new sanctions, its government turned to other exports instead, making a big push to develop domestic manufacturing and expand trade with immediate neighbors. That helped offset some of the impact. It also meant that by the time Covid-19 hit global oil demand last year, Iran was better primed to absorb the shock than fellow crude exporters.

The biggest casualty of Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy was the Iranian rial, which lost about 80% of its value against the dollar, fueling inflation, devastating purchasing power and pushing millions of families into poverty. Efforts to stabilize the currency by controlling the rate and prosecuting money changers backfired, weakening the rial further as the black market thrived.

As the rial lost value, stocks saw unprecedented gains. The main index on the Tehran Stock Exchange has risen more than 600% since January 2019 as record numbers of new investors sought to shield their savings from inflation. The market has already begun to lose value since Biden’s election on expectations that sanctions will ease and the rial will strengthen again.

The European Union was Iran’s biggest trade partner before the bloc imposed oil sanctions in 2012 over the country’s nuclear program. Since then, China has become Iran’s top destination for energy exports and biggest source of imports. It has been the lone customer for Iranian crude since Trump’s sanctions came into force in 2018. While Europe’s tried to keep the nuclear deal alive, it struggled to maintain economic ties in the face of U.S. penalties.

In May 2019, the Trump administration suspended sanctions waivers that had enabled Iran to keep selling oil to a select number of countries. That sent crude exports plunging to 290,000 barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, from about 2.6 million in January 2017, when Trump entered office. Iran has demanded the U.S. lift sanctions on its oil and banking industries as soon as possible and is preparing to increase production.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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Economy

LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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