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Germany’s Economy Was Stronger Than Expected in Third Quarter

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(Bloomberg) — Germany’s economy proved more resilient in the third quarter than initially reported, growing 0.4% on strong consumer spending.

An initial reading of 0.3% already had been a positive surprise, defying the country’s struggles with surging energy costs and uncertainty stoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Data published Friday showed that growth was primarily driven by household consumption, which registered a 1% increase from the previous quarter.

“Despite continuing sharp price increases and the expanding energy crisis, consumers took the opportunity to travel and go out more,” the statistics office said in a statement. “The German economy remains robust.”

The months ahead are set to be more challenging: Europe’s largest economy is widely expected to endure a recession as companies and households buckle under the energy-price spike. Its extent, is however, “extremely uncertain,” according to the Bundesbank, and the risk of damaging natural gas shortages has receded thanks to unusually warm autumn weather and storage facilities that are almost full.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is also preparing wide-ranging measures to subsidize gas and electricity, mitigating the hit to incomes from the highest inflation since the creation of the euro.

A gauge of business expectations by the Ifo institute rose on Thursday, reflecting optimism that the recession could be less severe than initially feared. Sentiment in surveys of purchasing managers by S&P Global this week also didn’t deteriorate further as economists had predicted.

–With assistance from Kristian Siedenburg and Bryce Baschuk.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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