Strong equity performance globally resulted in a major selloff in gold. The global rally in equities began last night in China. The underlying factor was action by China’s central bank. The People’s Bank of China (PBC) added huge amounts of capital last night through open market operations in attempts to offset the lack of confidence because of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to Yahoo finance, “The remarks were published on the official WeChat account of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) after it injected a total of 1.7 trillion yuan ($242.74 billion) via reverse repos on Monday and Tuesday.”
Fears about the coronavirus epidemic resulted in both Chinese equities and commodities selling off aggressively on Monday. In that short period of time those fears eradicated roughly $393 billion in the Chinese stock market capitalization.
The result was a rally in Chinese equities which spilled over into the European stock market, and then into US equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 400 points in trading today, and as of 4:22 PM EST is currently fixed at 28,807.63.
Obviously, this global rally in equities created an extremely strong-risk on market sentiment, which in turn put tremendous selling pressure on the safe haven asset class, with gold having the greatest percentage drawdown on the day of the precious metals complex.
Gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently at $1557.60, after trading down $24.70, which is a drop of 1.57%. Although dollar strength was a component of today’s selloff, it accounted for only a small percentage of today’s total decline. Currently the dollar index is up 0.17% and fixed at 97.79.
Spot gold also sold off sharply, and is currently fixed at $1554.10 after factoring in today’s $22.40 decline. On closer inspection we can see that that selloff was a direct result of traders bidding the precious yellow metal lower which accounted for $20.50 of today’s decline. The remaining decline of $1.90 is a direct result of dollar strength, this according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX).
Unlike yesterday’s lower pricing in gold, today’s sharp decline definitively caused technical chart damage. The support trendline we have been looking at which is based upon the low achieved mid-January at $1536, and drawing a line from there based upon a series of higher lows. Today gold prices broke below that trendline indicating the potential for further declines in gold.
Our technical studies indicate that the first level of support does not occur until $1530, which is a 50% retracement of the rally which took gold pricing as high as $1613. Below that price point is major support at $1511.50, which is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec posted a negative return of 7.9 per cent for the first six months of the year, in what chief executive Charles Emond noted was the worst period for stock and bond markets over the past 50 years.
As of June 30, the Caisse had net assets of $392 billion, with the $28.2-billion decrease due to investment losses of $33.6 billion offset by $5.4 billion in net deposits. The losses included a full write off of the fund’s US$150 million investment in crypto lender Celsius Network LLC, which is now in Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in the United States.
“The first six months of the year were very challenging,” Emond said in a statement. “The mix of factors we faced had not been witnessed in several decades: spiking inflation that triggered rapid and sharp interest rate hikes, rare simultaneous corrections in both stock and bond markets, fears of an economic downturn and the war in Ukraine with its many collateral effects.”
Over the same period, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board reported a positive return of 1.2 per cent on Monday.
During a news conference Wednesday to discuss the Caisse results, Emond said the Quebec pension fund wrote off the Celsius crypto investment even though it is considering its legal options and intends to preserve its rights in the court-monitored U.S. bankruptcy proceedings.
“We decided to take it now” out of prudence, Emond said of the writeoff. “The last chapter hasn’t been written.”
He said his team conducted extensive due diligence with outside experts and consultants. They were aware of management and regulatory issues at Celsius and underestimated the time it would take to resolve them, he said, adding the Caisse was keen on “seizing the potential of block chain technology” and perhaps the investment in Celsius had been made “too soon” in the company’s development.
He noted that the investment was a very small part of a large venture portfolio that has produced 35 per cent returns over the past five years.
“In these disruptive technologies, there’s ups and downs…. Some big winners and many losers,” Emond said.
Although the Caisse posted an overall return in negative territory for the first six months of the year, the performance exceeded that of its benchmark portfolio — which posted a negative return of 10.5 per cent.
“Over five and 10 years, annualized returns were 6.1 per cent and 8.3 per cent respectively, also outpacing benchmark portfolio returns,” the pension manager noted.
Emond said the Caisse is managing the “turbulence” with a combination of asset diversification and strategic adjustments made since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
“For the past two years, we’ve been working in an environment of extremes characterized by particularly fast and pronounced changes. These unusual and unstable conditions will persist for some time,” he said.
“In the short term, we’ll be watching what central banks do to contain inflation and how that impacts the economy.”
During the first six months of the year, negative returns in equities and fixed income were partially offset by gains in the Caisse’s investments in real assets including infrastructure and real estate.
The pension giant posted a negative return of 13.1 per cent in fixed income, which beat the negative 15.1 per cent return for its benchmark portfolio. This represented nearly $3 billion in “value added” attributable to all credit activities, the Caisse said.
A negative return of 16 per cent in equities beat the negative 17.2 per cent return in the benchmark portfolio.
The Caisse’s real estate and infrastructure portfolios, meanwhile, generated a 7.9 per cent six-month return, “demonstrating their diversifying role which contributes to limiting inflation’s impact on the total portfolio.”
The real asset class performance also beat the benchmark portfolio’s return, which was 2.4 per cent.
“So that asset class played its role. The two portfolios are doing well,” Emond said.
He said it is challenging to compare the short-term performance of Canadian pension funds because they have e different mandates and investment models. The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, for example, has less exposure to equity markets than the Caisse and more exposure to natural resources and commodities, which performed well in the first half of the year.
Air Canada says it has improved its service levels through the summer, reducing wait times and cancellations and bringing its baggage mishandling rate back to 2019 levels.
The Montreal-based airline provided an update on Wednesday on the operational improvement initiatives that have been underway as the company grapples with numerous challenges in the post-pandemic recovery.
Air Canada says that from the week of June 27 to the week of August 8, it saw the strongest improvement in baggage handling. While the company did not disclose its baggage mishandling rate, it says that the rate during the week of June 27 was 2.5 times the rate in 2019, before the pandemic hit. As of Aug. 8, Air Canada says the rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with a baggage handling success rate of 98 per cent.
The airline has also experienced a reduction in flight delays of more than one hour between, with 1,160 fewer flights per week facing longer delays. Air Canada also says delays are getting shorter, with the average arrival delay improving from 28 minutes longer than 2019 levels in the week of June 27, to 12 minutes longer than 2019 levels in the week of Aug. 8.
The number of flights cancelled fell 77 per cent between June 27 and Aug. 8. The airline’s flight completion rate reached 96.7 per cent, less than one percentage point lower than in the same week in 2019.
“We know how much our customers value travel and their reliance on us to transport them safely, comfortably and without disruption. This is always our goal and we share with them their disappointment that, coming out of the pandemic, the global industry faltered due to the unprecedented challenges of restarting after a two-year, virtual shutdown,” Air Canada chief executive Michael Rousseau said in a statement on Wednesday.
“While I am very satisfied with the progress to date… we all continue to work hard on behalf of our customers to complete our recovery.”
Air Canada says it currently operates an average of nearly 1,100 flights per day and it will operate 79 per cent of its pre-pandemic schedule through the summer. It now employs 34,000 workers, slightly below the 34,700 that were on staff before the pandemic.
Despite the improvements, Air Canada’s stock was trading down nearly 2 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of 1 p.m. ET.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Walter Spracklin says the improvements are a key positive for the airline, and reinforce that “the worst is behind them in terms of travel disruptions.”
“Taken together, these improvements should offer greater confidence to Air Canada’s customer base,” Spracklin said.
“Looking ahead, we hope to see capacity growth as the system gains resilience from the summer travel boom.”
Air Canada apologized to customers earlier this month for the operational instability seen in the post-pandemic ramp-up that came after travel demand surged for the first time in more than two years. The increase in demand strained the global air transport system and resulted in challenges for Air Canada and chaos at some of the country’s biggest airports.
The airline had pointed to challenges throughout the system as a key source of the issues, including resource challenges that impacted airport security screening, Canada and U.S. border customs processing, air traffic control, maintenance providers, equipment, supply chain, aircraft catering and fuelling partners. Air Canada also says a series of mechanical failures at airport baggage handling systems contributed to ongoing issues.
Alicja Siekierska is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @alicjawithaj.
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