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Goodbye ‘hawkish bias’: Here’s when economists think the Bank of Canada will cut rates

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Economists react to Bank of Canada’s latest decision to hold and predict where policymakers are headed next

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at five per cent for the fourth consecutive time on Jan. 24. Here’s what economists, who widely expected the bank to hold, had to say about the announcement and when Canadians can expect a rate cut from the central bank.

Stephen Brown, Capital Economics

“The big change in the policy statement was that the bank dropped its bias toward more tightening,” said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, in a note following the rate announcement.

He is interpreting that to mean Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is edging closer to making his first rate cut, though “there was no sign that cuts are imminent,” Brown said.

The central bank could be of the mind now that inflation isn’t as bad as the headline numbers might suggest, Brown added, noting that the bank’s statement referenced the “outsized role” shelter costs — mortgage interest costs and rents — are having on the consumer price index.

At this stage, the central bank still believes the Canadian economy can avoid a recession and is calling for 2024 GDP of 0.8 per cent. However, Brown believes the bank is overestimating growth and that will force Macklem to shift to cuts sooner than expected.

“Given the shift in tone today, we are sticking to our view that the bank will be prepared to make policy less restrictive by beginning to cut interest rates at the April policy meeting,” Brown said.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, noted that the bank dropped its language regarding the need to hike rates again if inflation persisted, replacing that “hawkish bias” with the more cut-friendly wording that it remains “concerned” about persistent core inflation.

Shenfeld highlighted that the bank is forecasting that growth will pick up in the second half of the year and wondered if that was tied to its expectation for lower rates.

“The governor noted that the meeting has shifted from a discussion of whether rates are high enough to one about how long they need to keep rates at five per cent,” he said. That, he said, was a “dovish tilt … but is still consistent with our call for a first rate cut in June, with as much at 150 basis points of cuts on tap this year if, as we expect, we’ll need that to get the economy moving again after its current stall.”

Charles St-Arnaud, Alberta Central

Inflation remains too elevated for the Bank of Canada, and Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist of Alberta Central, expects it won’t make any moves to cut rates until its preferred measures of core inflation slows to around 2.5 per cent year over year — “something we do not expect until May 2024,” St–Arnaud said.

Currently, those core measures are in the 3.5 per cent range.

“However, a much weaker economy in 2024 is a risk that could force the BoC to move sooner,” he said, noting that a drop in job hiring or outright employment losses could be the deciding factor.

“The tone of the communiqué suggests that the BoC believes it is done tightening monetary policy but is not yet ready to declare victory in its fight against inflation,” St-Arnaud said. “The focus is now on how long interest rates will need to remain elevated to achieve its objective.”

Unless the economy says otherwise, St-Arnaud expects the opportunity to make the first rate cut will come in the middle of the year.

Nathan Janzen, Royal Bank of Canada

Although the Bank of Canada said in its policy statement that it is still worried about inflation, Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said there are plenty of reasons to believe that inflation will continue to slow.

Among them is the “softening economic backdrop,” including a sixth consecutive monthly decline in output per capita. The jobless rate, which has increased as employment is no longer able to match population growth, is another factor. Further, the central bank now estimates the economy has excess supply, taking pressure off inflation.

“We expect slower price growth alongside a weakening economic backdrop will push the BoC to start gradually lowering the policy rate late by mid-year,” Janzen said.

James Orlando, Toronto-Dominion Bank

The shift in the Bank of Canada’s thinking on the role of shelter costs in the inflation debate, with the central bank acknowledging that mortgage interest and rents are “problematic forces,” appeared to be the thing that struck Toronto-Dominion Bank director and senior economist James Orlando most about the Jan. 24 announcement.

“Shelter costs remain the biggest contributor to above-target inflation,” the central bank said in its statement. Some economists had been railing for months against the bank for not giving enough weight to the impact of shelter on inflation. Orlando seemed to think the Bank of Canada’s focus on weakness in the economy was “feeling long in the tooth,” and that it was time to expand its view. For example, there is plenty of hard evidence that consumers have cut spending to compensate for the higher cost of borrowing, he said.

“Normally, this would cause inflation to decelerate quickly, but structural imbalances in the real estate sector are keeping the BoC’s preferred inflation gauges elevated,” Orlando said in a note on Jan. 24. Markets took this apparent shift to heart, with odds of a rate cut in April or June increasing. “We echo this sentiment,” Orlando said.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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