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Grantham’s 10 tips for investment success in both good & bad times – Economic Times

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Famed value investor Jeremy Grantham says the best returns on investments do not come from taking biggest risks, but from buying cheapest assets.

He says the lesser an investor pays for a stream of earnings, the higher will be the chances of his return over time.

“You don’t get rewarded for taking risk; you get rewarded for buying cheap assets. If the assets you bought got pushed up in price simply because they were risky, you are not going to be rewarded for taking the risk; you are going to be punished for it,” he told investors in his quarterly letter.

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Jeremy Grantham is a British investor and Co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm.

Grantham has a reputation for accurately predicting about three major market bubbles: Japan’s asset-price bubble in 1989, the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the US mortgage crisis in 2008.

Grantham’s investment strategy

Grantham’s investment strategy is built on the idea of mean reversion. He makes his investment choices by looking for irrationally priced stocks.

He says financial assets can be too expensive or too cheap at any given moment, but will always go back to average. The worst thing investors can do is to get in or out of an investment for the simple fear of lagging behind their peers, says he.

Why individual investors are at an advantage

Grantham says the basic truth of investment is that investor behaviour is driven by career risk. He feels most investment managers fear taking bold calls and prefer going with the flow and doing what their peers are doing, because it is the safest option to survive in the investment industry.

Grantham says individual investors can take advantage of this practice of investment managers, as it creates herding and thus drive prices well above or below their fair values.

“The prime directive is first and last to keep your job. To do this, you must never, ever be wrong on your own. To prevent this calamity, professional investors pay ruthless attention to what other investors in general are doing. The great majority ‘go with the flow’, either completely or partially. This creates herding, or momentum, which drives prices far above or far below fair price,” says he.

Giving the example of the Internet Bubble, he says companies that were suffering big losses and had no future were getting billion-dollar valuations and fund managers were buying them at excessive prices, just because they feared missing out or deviating from the performance of their peers.

10 lessons for individual investors
Grantham lists out 10 timeless investment lessons for individual investors setting out on dangerous investment voyages.

1. Believe in history: In investing, history tends to repeat itself and all investment challenges pass away in due course. Investors should try and survive the tough times and ignore vested interests of the industry who try to mislead them from time to time about the market, says Grantham.

“The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience (and, for professionals, those of their clients too), it will go back to fair value. Your task is to survive until that happens,” he says.

2. Don’t be a lender or a borrower: If an investor plans to borrow capital for investment, it tends to interfere with their survival in the industry. The temptation to borrow has proven to be so seductive that individuals have shown themselves to be incapable of resisting it, as if it were a drug.

“Unleveraged portfolios cannot be stopped out, leveraged portfolios can. Leverage reduces patience, an investor’s critical asset. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed. It increases your returns over and over until, suddenly, it ruins you. For individuals, it allows you to have today what you really can’t afford until tomorrow,” he says.

3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat: It is best not to put all the capital into one investment, as several different investments give a portfolio resilience and the ability to withstand shocks. “Clearly, the more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you,” he says.

4. Be patient and focus on the long term: It is important for investors to have patience to exploit favourable market conditions. There will always be ups and downs in the market. So it is best to invest for the long term when a good investment opportunity arises. “Wait for the good cards. If you’ve waited and waited some more until finally a very cheap market appears, this will be your margin of safety. Now all you have to do is withstand the pain as the very good investment becomes exceptional. Individual stocks usually recover, entire markets always do. If you’ve followed the previous rules, you will outlast the bad news,” he says.

5. Recognise your advantages over the professionals: Individual investors have a big advantage over professional managers as they don’t have to report their results to anyone but themselves. Also, they don’t have to match the market’s return every year and don’t have the fear of getting fired. Also, unlike a professional investment manager, individuals can afford to hold a temporary loser for a winning outcome in the long run which is a huge advantage for many reasons like minimising taxes and transaction costs.

“The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing, which is almost impossible for professionals,” he says.

6. Try to contain natural optimism: Although optimism is often regarded as a positive survival characteristic in the investment world, it comes with a downside, especially for investors who don’t like to hear the bad news. “In a real stock bubble like that of 2000, bearish news in the US was greeted like news of the bubonic plague; bearish professionals were fired just to avoid the dissonance of hearing the bear case, and this was an example where the better the case was made, the more unpleasantness it elicited,” he says.

Investors should not be overly optimistic and learn to give importance to both the good and the bad news of the investment industry. One should be willing to hear bearish, bad news about the risks they have taken with their capital and make informed decisions about them.

7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave: Professional investors have the ability and the skill to often spot bargains, but they can’t and don’t always act on it. This is due to the fact that professional investors don’t want to risk lagging behind their peers and lose their jobs if they go wrong on an investment bet.

But Grantham feels individuals don’t have that worry and they should trust their research if they find an investment that looks cheap even if it’s likely to be out of favor for a while. “You can make bigger bets than professionals can when extreme opportunities present themselves because, for them, the biggest risk that comes from temporary setbacks – extreme loss of clients and business – does not exist for you. So, if the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it,” says he.

8. Resist the crowd, cherish numbers only: It is toughest for investors to resist the enthusiasm of a crowd. “Watching you neighbours get rich at the end of a bubble while you sit it out patiently is pure torture,” he says. So, Grantham advises investors to do their own simple measurements of value, or find a reliable source and check their calculations from time to time.

He says investors should ignore especially the short-term news like the ebb and flow of economic and political news. “Stock values are based on their entire future value of dividends and earnings going out many decades into the future. Shorter-term economic dips have no appreciable long-term effect on individual companies let alone the broad asset classes that you should concentrate on. Leave those complexities to professionals, who will on average lose money trying to decipher them,” he says.

9. In the end it’s quite simple. Really: Investors should look to calculate estimates and forecasts of an attractive investment proposition by using simple methodology and shouldn’t let any external factors affect their research. “These estimates are not about nuances or PhDs. They are about ignoring the crowd, working out simple ratios and being patient,” he says.

10. This above all, to thine own self be true: To become successful, it is imperative for investors to know their limitations as well as their strengths and weaknesses. “If you can be patient and ignore the crowd, you will likely win. But to imagine you can, and to then adopt a flawed approach that allows you to be seduced or intimidated by the crowd into jumping in late or getting out early is to guarantee a pure disaster. You must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head,” he says.

He also believes that if investors cannot resist temptations, then they should absolutely not manage their own money. People can either hire a manager who has those skills to manage their money efficiently or they can pick a sensible, globally diversified index of stocks and bonds for investment which they should never look at again until they retire, says he.

Grantham also feels that if individuals have patience, a decent pain threshold, an ability to withstand herd mentality, some basic college level education in math, and a reputation for common sense, then they can be successful in the investment world.

“In my opinion, you hold enough cards and will beat most professionals which is sadly, but realistically, a relatively modest hurdle and may even do very well indeed,” he says.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on Jeremy Grantham’s GMO Quarterly Letter).

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Investment Statistics (10 Investment Statistics Investors Need To Know) – Forbes

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Understanding investment markets can be difficult, as there’s so much information to sort through. Fortunately, you don’t need to understand every single concept or piece of data to have success as an investor.

A few important, simple and often surprising investment statistics can guide your choices and make you a better investor in the long term. Here are a few worth considering.

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1. The Annual Return of the S&P 500 (10% Per Year)

The stock market has been a consistent way to build wealth over the past 100 years. Likewise, from April 1, 1936 through March 31, 2024, the S&P 500 Index–a widely followed barometer for the broad U.S. stock market–averaged an annual return of 10.75%.

To put that return into perspective, if you earn 10% per year on your savings, and your gains compound quarterly, you’ll double your money roughly every seven years. Put $20,000 in an S&P 500 fund today, and if you earn the historical return of 10% per year, you’ll have $40,000 in about seven years.

Of course, the stock market is unpredictable and goes through swings. Your portfolio might go down some years and up by more than 10% in others. The key takeaway is that the stock market posts a substantial average annual return over time.

2. The Average Annual Inflation Rate (3.8% Per Year)

Inflation is another reason why it’s essential to invest. When prices go up, the purchasing power of each of your dollars goes down. On average, U.S. inflation has been 3.8% percent per year from 1960 to 2022. If you aren’t earning at least that much on your money, it’s losing value. Your balance might stay the same in a bank account, but it buys less and less, making you poorer.

Investments like stocks historically outperform inflation. By investing some of your money in stocks and stock funds, your savings and spending power can keep up with rising prices.

3. The Number of Active Day Traders Who Lose Money (80%)

Using an index fund, you can often match the performance of the entire S&P 500 and various major stock markets. This is different from buying and selling–or trading–individual stocks. Trading individual stocks can be exciting when it succeeds, leading sometimes to sharp short-term gains, but profiting consistently is very hard.

In fact, 75% of day traders trying to invest professionally quit within two years, and 80% of their trades are unprofitable, according to a University of Berkeley study. And individual stock day traders working through a taxable account often generate short-term capital gains, which are taxed at higher ordinary income rates than long-term capital gains. Day traders can also trigger a lot of investment fees. Also, as a day trader you’re competing against the best professional investors on Wall Street, many backed by big research teams.

Most regular investors are better off using mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that aim to match the stock market instead. It’s less exciting but still lucrative in the long term.

4. The Cost of an Index Fund vs. an Active Fund for a $1 Million Portfolio ($1,200 vs. $6,000 Per Year)

If you’re trying to pick an investment fund, consider the cost. An index fund keeps costs low by simply trying to mimic the performance of a specific segment of the market. The S&P 500 is one. It consists of 500 of the largest companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. The Nasdaq 100 consists of stocks issued by 100 of the largest nonfinancial businesses listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

Many index funds track each of those groups. Generally, their costs are kept low because they don’t have to pay for lots of investors, analysts and software wizards to find stocks. In contrast, actively managed funds do pay for talented people who can pick stocks that outperform. Those costs get passed on to shareholders like you.

Index funds, on average, charge 0.12% per year versus the 0.60% charged by active investment funds. That means on a $1 million portfolio, you’d pay $1,200 per year for an index fund versus $6,000 a year for an active fund.

Despite charging much more, 79% of active funds, trying to earn higher returns, underperformed the S&P 500 in 2021. Often, you’re paying extra fees for actively managed funds without getting any additional return in exchange.

5. The Average Length of a Bear Market (14 Months)

One drawback to investing is that your returns are not guaranteed. In some years you’ll earn a lot. In others, your portfolio could lose money. It’s not fun to lose money, but during this stretch, remind yourself that the market will turn around eventually.

The average historical bear market, a period when stocks are losing value, has lasted 14 months. On the other hand, the average historical bull market, when stocks go up in value, has lasted five years.

The market will go through cycles of gains and losses. Remember that the positive stretches last longer than the negative ones.

6. The Number of ‘Best Investing Days’ That Can Turn a Positive Portfolio Negative If Missed (20 Days Over Two Decades)

When the market crashes, you might feel tempted to cash out and wait until things start picking up again. This is one of the most expensive mistakes investors make.

Why is that? Because so much of the stock market’s long-term returns come from single-day gains. The market sometimes shoots up by 5%, 7% or even 10% in a single day. Those days are impossible to predict. And they often occur at the start of a rally.

Individual retail investors often miss those explosive, unexpected upturns because they cashed out or moved to bonds amid the market’s earlier downturn.

A JPMorgan report found that if investors missed the top 10 best days of investing over a two-decade period from January 1999 to December 2018, it cut their portfolio return in half. If investors missed the top 20 best investing days, their return turned negative, meaning that they lost money over that two-decade period. Don’t try to time the market. Stay invested for the long term for the best results.

7. The Monthly Investment Needed to Reach $1 Million If You Start at Age 25 vs. Age 45 ($350 vs. $1,650)

The earlier you start investing, the more time you have to build wealth. This makes it easier to hit your long-term financial goals.

Let’s say you want $1 million in your nest egg for retirement at age 67. You expect to earn 7% a year, a reasonable return for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. If you start at age 25, you would need to save about $350 per month. If you start at age 45, you must save around $1,650 a month.

If you’re still early in your career, consider ways to save more money. Even a little extra today will make reaching your future financial goals easier. Don’t get discouraged if you are later in your career. You may wish you had started earlier, but anything you put aside now will help you once you retire. As the saying goes, perhaps the best time to start was years ago, but the second-best is now.

8. The Number of People With a Workplace Retirement Plan (44%)

A workplace retirement plan, like a 401(k), can help you invest. Those plans let you save money and defer yearly tax on growth in your investments inside your account. With a traditional 401(k), you also get a tax deduction for the money you kick into your account. In most cases, your employer also contributes to your account.

Only 44% of American workers have access to a workplace retirement plan. If you have one, study how it works to take full advantage.

The majority of workers, 56%, do not have a retirement plan at their job. Consider an individual retirement account, or IRA, if you are in that situation. It offers similar tax advantages for your retirement savings and investment goals.

9. The Expected Life Expectancy of Males and Females Turning 65 (82 and 85 Years)

The top reason most people invest is to save for retirement. And retirement might last a lot longer than you expect. The typical male turning 65 today is expected to live until 82, while females are expected to live until 85, according to the Social Security Administration.

That is a retirement lasting an average of nearly two decades. Some people will live even longer, reaching 90, 100 or even older. This is why saving and investing regularly is important—to build extra savings to fund your retirement lifestyle.

10. The Average Baby Boomer 401(k) Balance ($230,900)

Fidelity measured the average 401(k) balance by age of its customers. This can give you an idea of where your savings stack up against your peers:

  • Gen Z: $9,800
  • Millennials: $54,000
  • Gen X: $165,300
  • Baby Boomers: $230,900

This represents investments in a 401(k). People may have more money in an IRA or other investment account. Still, those figures show that the typical person does not retire with $1 million. Therefore, you shouldn’t feel behind if you’re just starting to save for retirement. Do what you can to beat these averages and grow your portfolio.

Hopefully, these statistics help shed some light on the importance of investing and investing wisely. Consider meeting with a financial advisor to discuss your portfolio for more advice.

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Deutsche Bank's Investment Bankers Step Up as Rate Boost Fades – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG relied on its traders and investment bankers to make up for a slowdown in income from lending, as Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing seeks to deliver on an ambitious revenue goal.

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Fixed income trading rose 7% in the first quarter, more than analysts had expected and better than most of the biggest US investment banks. Income from advising on deals and stock and bond sales jumped 54%.

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Revenue for the group rose about 1% as the prospect of falling interest rates hurt the corporate bank and the private bank that houses the retail business.

Sewing has vowed to improve profitability and lift revenue to €30 billion this year, a goal some analysts view with skepticism as the end of the rapid rate increases weighs on revenue from lending. In the role for six years, the CEO is cutting thousands of jobs in the back office to curb costs while building out the advisory business with last year’s purchase of Numis Corp. to boost fee income.

“We are very pleased” with the investment bank, Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. The trends of the first quarter “have continued into April,” he said, including “a slower macro environment” that’s being offset by “momentum in credit” and emerging markets.

While traders and investment bankers did well, revenue at the corporate bank declined 5% on lower net interest income. Private bank revenue fell about 2%. Both units benefited when central banks raised interest rates over the past two years, allowing them to charge more for loans while still paying relatively little for deposits.

With inflation slowing and interest rates set to fall again, that effect is reversing, though markets have scaled back expectations for how quickly and how deep central banks are likely to cut. That’s lifted shares of Europe’s lenders recently, with Deutsche Bank gaining 25% this year.

“Deutsche Bank reported a reasonable set of results,” analysts Thomas Hallett and Andrew Stimpson at KBW wrote in a note. “The investment bank performed well while the corporate bank and asset management underperformed.”

–With assistance from Macarena Muñoz and Oliver Crook.

(Updates with CFO comments in fifth paragraph.)

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How Can I Invest in Eco-friendly Companies? – CB – CanadianBusiness.com

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Welcome to CB’s personal-finance advice column, Make It Make Sense, where each month experts answer reader questions on complex investment and personal-finance topics and break them down in terms we can all understand. This month, Damir Alnsour, a lead advisor and portfolio manager at money-management platform Wealthsimple, tackles eco-friendly investments. Have a question about your finances? Send it to [email protected].


Q: It’s Earth Month! And… there’s a climate crisis. How can I invest in companies and portfolios funding causes I believe in?

Earth Day may have been introduced in 1970, but today it’s more relevant than ever: In a 2023 survey, 72 per cent of Canadians said they were worried about climate change. Along with carpooling, ditching single-use plastics and composting, you can celebrate Earth Month this year by greening your investment portfolio.

Green investing, or buying shares in projects, companies, or funds that are committed to environmental sustainability, is an excellent way to support projects and businesses that reflect your passions and lifestyle choices. It’s growing in favour among Canadian investors, but there are some considerations investors should be mindful of. Let’s review some green investing options and what to look out for.

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Green Bonds

Green bonds are a fixed-income instrument where the proceeds are put toward climate-related purposes. In 2022, the Canadian government launched its first Green Bond Framework, which saw strong demand from domestic and global investors. This resulted in a record $11 billion green bonds being sold. One warning: Because it’s a smaller market, green bonds tend to be less liquid than many other investments.

It’s also important to note that a “green” designation can mean a lot of different things. And they’re not always all that environmentally-guided. Some companies use broad, vague terms to explain how the funds will be used, and they end up using the money they raised with the bond sale to pay for other corporate needs that aren’t necessarily eco-friendly. There’s also the practice of “greenwashing,” labelling investments as “green” for marketing campaigns without actually doing the hard work required to improve their environmental footprint.

To make things more challenging, funds and asset managers themselves can partake in greenwashing. Many funds that purport to be socially responsible still hold oil and gas stocks, just fewer of them than other funds. Or they own shares of the “least problematic” of the oil and gas companies, thereby touting emission reductions without clearly disclosing the extent of those improvements. As with any type of investing, it’s important to do your research and understand exactly what you’re investing in.

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) and Impact Investing

SRI and impact investing portfolios hold a mix of stocks and bonds that are intended to put your money towards projects and companies that work to advance progressive social outcomes or address a social issue—i.e., investing in companies that don’t wreak havoc on society. They can include companies promoting sustainable growth, diverse workforces and equitable hiring practices.

The main difference between the two approaches is that SRI uses a measurable criteria to qualify or disqualify companies as socially responsible, while impact investing typically aims to help an enterprise produce some social or environmental benefit.

Related: Climate Change Is Influencing How Young People Invest Their Money

Some financial institutions use the two approaches to build well-diversified, low-cost, socially responsible portfolios that align with most clients’ environmental and societal preferences. That said, not all portfolios are constructed with the same care. As with evaluating green bonds, it’s important to remember that a company or fund having an SRI designation or saying it partakes in impact investing is subjective. There’s always a risk of not knowing exactly where and with whom the money is being invested.

All three of these options are good reminders that, even though you may feel helpless to enact environmental or social change in the face of larger systemic issues, your choices can still support the well-being of society and the planet. So, if you have extra funds this April (maybe from your tax return?), green or social investing are solid options. As long as you do thorough research and understand some of the limitations, you’re sure to find investments that are both good for the world and your finances.

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