As the grim two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a new poll suggests Canadians’ engagement with the conflict is waning and support for Ukraine is weakening — especially among Conservatives.
A survey released Tuesday morning by the Angus Reid Institute says a quarter of Canadians believe Canada is offering “too much support” to Ukraine in its fight, up from 13 per cent who said the same thing in May 2022.
Conservative supporters are a driving force behind that result, according to the poll.
The percentage of Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election, and who now say Canada is doing too much to assist Ukraine, has more than doubled — from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent now — according to the public opinion research group’s findings.
“It’s a massive jump,” said Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute. “This has the potential to be something of a political Gordian knot for Pierre Poilievre.”
Sorting out the reasons behind the shift is largely an exercise in speculation at this point, said Kurl.
On the one hand, she said, there’s a longstanding tradition of support for the military among Conservative voters. That position may be in tension with Conservative support for small governments and lower taxes, she added.
“I don’t want to overemphasize it … but what is burgeoning, what is starting to sort of grow from out of the weeds into a fairly healthy seedling here, is this almost the Trump-esque, ‘Canada First’ mentality,” she said.
“That mindset of conservative is not representative of the majority of the Conservative Party base in the country, or the entirety of the base. It is a minority, but it is a passionate, vocal and growing minority.”
The poll suggests the belief that Canada is giving Ukraine too much is also growing among NDP and Liberal voters. The percentage of voters who think Canada is doing too much for Ukraine jumped from 5 to 10 per cent among 2021 Liberal supporters, and from 5 to 12 per cent among 2021 NDP supporters.
Poilievre says Trudeau is a ‘big talker’ on Ukraine
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre blasted the prime minister’s record on Ukraine and talked about his own plans to make Canadian natural gas available to Europe.
Since early 2022, the federal government has committed more than $2.4 billion in military assistance and more than $352 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Asked at a news conference Tuesday if he believes the Trudeau government has given too much to the war effort, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said the prime minister “is a big talker and a little do-er when it comes to Ukraine.”
“He has made all of these announcements of hundreds of millions of dollars of different equipment that is never actually delivered,” he told a news conference in Montreal.
Poilievre vowed to donate to Ukraine tens of thousands of surplus air-to-ground rockets now slated for disposal, and to sell it Canadian natural gas to bolster its vulnerable energy system.
“That will bring money home to this country, while fighting an evil dictator who is invading an innocent country,” he said.
Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly said her government will continue to support Ukraine.
“Poilievre has been talking a lot about and crying about the importance of freedom, but the reality we know [is] that he’s about freedom for some and not for all,” she said. “Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and ours, and we will continue to support them for as long as it takes.”
An emotional debate about trade with Ukraine
The poll landed on the day MPs are set to vote at third reading on a bill to implement an update to the Canada-Ukraine free trade deal.
The Liberals accused Poilievre and his party of abandoning Ukraine when Conservative MPs voted against the bill in November. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has attributed the opposition to “American MAGA-influenced thinking.”
Poilievre, whose party has maintained a large polling lead over Trudeau’s Liberals for months, has said his party still supports Ukraine and its objection is to the mention of “carbon pricing” in the legislation.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses the national Conservative caucus on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
“I really think it speaks to how pathologically obsessed Trudeau is with the carbon tax that, while the knife is at the throat of Ukrainians, he would use that to impose his carbon tax ideology on those poor people,” Poilievre said in November.
The trade agreement imposes no obligation on the Ukrainian government to introduce a carbon tax.
The Angus Reid poll suggests Canadians, by a three-to-one ratio, believe the Conservatives’ vote against the Canada-Ukraine free trade agreement will undermine Canada’s reputation on the world stage. Half of likely Conservative voters believe there will be no effect at all, the poll says.
Kurl said elections based on foreign policy issues are rare in Canada, but for the first time in months Poilievre’s opponents have something to talk about.
“He’s spent little to no time on the defence and it has enabled him to stay very disciplined in terms of message and stay very focused in terms of a relentless attack on the government. And I’m not saying that those attacks in some cases haven’t been cogent, or that they haven’t been the result of really a litany … of own-goals on the part of this government,” said Kurl.
“But, you know, for the first time we we may be seeing something that puts Poilievre on the defence.”
Canadians’ interest dwindling
The Angus Reid Institute’s survey suggests the number of Canadians closely following news of the conflict has dropped from 66 per cent in May 2022 to 45 per cent now.
“Overall, Canadians are checking out of this conflict,” said Kurl.
“And you can see that those who are less engaged are much more likely to also say, you know, we’re helping too much, we’ve fulfilled our commitments.”
The poll suggests Canadians remain divided on the role Canada should play in the war going forward.
One third of respondents agreed Canada should support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” while one-in-ten believe that support should continue for only another year.
Situation in Ukraine is ‘dire,’ says Joly
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, who recently visited Ukraine, said Canada will support the country ‘as long as it takes.’
Another 30 per cent are uncertain, while 20 per cent say they believe the war should end now with negotiations for peace initiated by Ukraine.
Just five per cent of respondents want Canada to end its support entirely.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted the online survey from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2024 using a randomized sample of 1,617 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
How thousands of Ukrainian men are trying to dodge the draft
Ukraine says it needs 500,000 more soldiers to fight Russia, but thousands of men have fled the country to avoid getting drafted. CBC’s Briar Stewart got rare access to the Moldovan border control unit tasked with catching men sneaking over the border and some of the men who fled.
Toronto , On – “Small Talk” by Canadian pop star, Isla-Maria drops October 25th. “Small Talk” follows the singer’s recent R&B/Soul single ‘Silver Shoes” and the self-penned single ‘Attention Seeking’ that soared to the #1 position on the aBreak58 Playlist. The hit single garnered Isla-Maria audience and industry praise at home and internationally. The music industry has taken notice of the young pop singer for her authenticity and the heartfelt connect too her music. And Isla-Maria’s star continues to rise. The pop teen has just moved on to the third round of Auditions for Season 23’s American Idol.
Isla-Maria was born in the small town of Bracebridge, Ontario. From the age of three her talent was obvious and her intent unwavering. She was encourged by everyone who heard her sing. The singer/songwriter took that encouragement and never looked back. The artist has appeared in musical theatre, competitive dance and concerts around the country. Isla-Maria embarked on the Boys of Summer Tour, taking the stage in major cities across the USA. She has also performed at Canadian Music Week in Toronto and Shake the Lake Music Festival in Bala, Ontario. The award-winning pop singer is determined to show her personal style with the same passion and confidence shown in her performances and in the studio. Her song writing ability contributes to her identity as the kind of independent artist she strives to be. Isla-Maria fearlessly pushes boundaries performing songs of love, heartbreak and the roller coaster of emotions that define teenage existence. The multi- talented artist captures the fearless honesty of youth with the soul of an artist far beyond her age.
Isla- Maria…. Hear the Voice.
“Small talk” by Isla- Maria drops, October 25th on all major music platforms. Hear the voice that made it to Season 23 American Idol Auditions.
Available now:
Silver Shoes Music Video – https://youtu.be/G4RV8b5Cfh4?si=FR0zesqR_PpqIoQh
OTTAWA – The minister of mental health and addictions says there are not enough beds in jurisdictions across the country to support involuntary treatment for addictions and mental health.
Ya’ara Saks says health care is under provincial jurisdiction, and that it’s up to the provinces “to outline the policies that they see fit.”
But before they have discussions about compulsory care, she says they need to ensure adequate treatment services are in place.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said Thursday he’s in favour of mandatory, involuntary drug and psychiatric treatment for kids and prisoners who are found to be incapable of making decisions for themselves.
Compulsory care for mental health and addictions is being contemplated or expanded in several provinces as communities struggle to cope with a countrywide overdose crisis.
Poilievre says he’s still researching how mandatory treatment would work in the case of adults.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
OTTAWA – Former public safety minister Bill Blair told a federal inquiry Friday he had no knowledge about delays in approving a spy service warrant in 2021 that may have included references to people in his own government.
A commission of inquiry into foreign interference has heard that it took 54 days for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service warrant application to be approved by Blair.
The average turnaround time for such applications is four to 10 days.
Michelle Tessier, CSIS deputy director of operations during the period, told the inquiry in previous testimony there was frustration with the delay, though there was no concern about interference of any sort or pushback from the minister’s office.
In his testimony, Blair — who is now minister of national defence — said the existence of the warrant wasn’t brought to his attention until he saw an entry in his calendar that he would need to be briefed on a confidential matter by CSIS.
“It was indicated on my calendar it was for the purposes of a warrant, but no information was provided in a non-secure setting about what that warrant was about,” Blair told the commission in his testimony Friday.
He didn’t know about the content of the warrant until he got that briefing, 54 days after the CSIS director and deputy public safety minister asked for his authorization. He signed it the same day.
A past report in the Globe and Mail and a lawyer at the inquiry have suggested the subject of the warrant was Michael Chan, an influential Liberal and former Ontario minister. But federal officials have refused to confirm who CSIS hoped to surveil through the warrant, citing national security concerns.
This week, Blair’s former chief of staff Zita Astravas faced questions about whether she tried to delay the warrant in order to protect connections in the Liberal government and party.
Blair’s chief of staff was briefed about the situation 13 days after the initial request for the minister’s approval was made, but Blair said no information about that briefing was passed on to him.
Blair said he never felt conflicted about approving the warrant, he simply didn’t know it existed.
“I can’t approve something I didn’t know anything about,” the minister told the inquiry.
“No one suggested to me that there were any difficulties bringing those matters forward to me in a proper way.”
Blair said he still doesn’t know why it took 54 days for the warrant to come to his attention.
Once he got the information, he said he didn’t share any information with the prime minister, the prime minister’s office, or anyone outside of the secure briefing.
The commission of inquiry’s latest hearings are looking at the ability of federal agencies to identify and counter foreign interference. A final report is due by the end of the year.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
