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Hiring marginalized workers could jumpstart economy, boost incomes by $5K: Deloitte – Preeceville Progress

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TORONTO — A new report by Deloitte Canada says that Canada’s economy was headed for slowing growth in the next decade, even if COVID-19 had never hit.

The consulting and audit firm says that boosting the number of hours worked in the economy would reverse Canada’s economic slowdown and lift the pace of yearly economic growth by 50 per cent, adding $4,900 to Canadians’ average annual income by 2030 without raising tax rates.

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To do that, Deloitte says Canada needs to be more inclusive of groups that are underemployed in the economy, otherwise the number of workers will shrink over the next decade.

The report, which looks at more than 1,000 variables, says Canada has a low fertility rate, and the share of Canadians over age 65 is expected to nearly double.

That means retirees must be replaced in the workforce by underrepresented groups such as women, immigrants, people with disabilities and Indigenous Canadians.

Deloitte suggests that for the economy to grow faster, companies need better disability accommodations, workplace inclusion policies, and childcare benefit packages — while regulators need to expand apprenticeship options and degree equivalencies for immigrants.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 29, 2020.

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Canada's economy grew 1.2% in August as pace of growth cools down – Radio Canada International – English Section

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Statistics Canada says the pace of economic growth slowed in August as real gross domestic product grew 1.2 per cent in the month. (Matt York/THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP)

Canada’s economy grew by 1.2 per cent in August slightly higher than what economists were expecting but significantly slower than in previous months as the pace of economic recovery began losing steam.

In July, Canada’s economy had grown by 3.1 per cent, the national statistics agency said Friday.

Statistics Canada noted that August marked the fourth straight month of growth following the steepest drops on record back in March and April amid pandemic lockdowns.

The economy was expected to grow by further 0.7 per cent in September, according to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate.

Both goods-producing and services-producing industries were up as 15 of 20 industrial sectors posted increases and two were essentially unchanged in August, Statistics Canada said.

August saw healthy increases in the public sector, especially in education, professional services, manufacturing and construction, the data agency said.

Accommodation and food services, the hardest hit sectors by the pandemic, also continued their recovery, though at a much slower pace.

However, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector decreased 1.7 per cent in August, Statistics Canada said.

(Statistics Canada)

RBC economist Claire Fan said the economy has retraced around 75 per cent of the losses earlier in spring, but still sits about five per cent below February’s pre-pandemic level.

The bigger concern is how much of that third quarter growth can be sustained beyond September, Fan said.

COVID cases have been on the rise, prompting local governments to re-introduce some containment measures in hotspots, she said.

“The less stringent and more targeted response this time around probably means activity held up much better than it did back in April,” Fan wrote in a research note to clients. “But the economic rebound was already slowing ahead of the virus resurgence, and there is still clearly a risk that broader containment measures could yet be needed.”

Fan said she expects growth in activity for the industrial sector and some services industries like retail and professional services to persist beyond September.

But hospitality industries, alongside the oil and gas sector, will once again face much bigger challenges as demand weakens, she warned.

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Lifted by U.S., Mexico economy rebounds 12% in third quarter from coronavirus – The Journal Pioneer

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By Dave Graham

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy grew 12.0% during the third quarter, largely as expected, making up for much of the record contraction over the previous three months at the height of the coronavirus lockdown, preliminary data showed on Friday.

The seasonally-adjusted jump in gross domestic product (GDP) published by national statistics agency INEGI was fractionally better than the 11.9% expansion predicted by a Reuters poll.

The quarter-on-quarter increase was easily the biggest since current records began at the start of the 1980s, and benefited from massive stimulus spending in the United States.

U.S. demand helped Mexico rack up large trade surpluses during the past four months, as exports picked up speed, especially in the automotive industry. By contrast, domestic demand has lagged, with many businesses still struggling.

Alfredo Coutino, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Mexico was still heavily reliant on the U.S. economy, and forecast the recovery would slow in the months ahead.

“The Mexican economy is benefiting from the upturn in the U.S. business cycle, mainly through the U.S. demand for Mexican exports and remittances sent by Mexican migrants working in the U.S.,” Coutino said in a research note.

Between April and June, at the peak of Mexico’s pandemic lockdown, the economy shrank 17.1% from the first quarter.

Mexico has not recovered as quickly as the U.S. economy, which shrank by an annualized rate of 31.4% in the second quarter then jumped by 33.1% in the July-September period.

COMEBACK

Despite the economic chaos of the pandemic, remittances to Mexico have surged this year, and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has forecast they will reach a record $40 billion.

During a regular news conference, Lopez Obrador hailed the GDP figures as evidence the economy was bouncing back.

A breakdown of the data showed primary activities like farming, forestry and fishing advanced by 7.4% compared with the previous quarter. Secondary activities such as manufacturing increased by 22.0%, INEGI said. Meanwhile tertiary activities, which encompass consumer spending and services, climbed 8.6%.

Lopez Obrador was eager to point out that the primary sector, which he has pushed with schemes to boost farming and tree planting, is doing better now than it was a year ago.

Mexico’s economy is forecast to shrink almost 10% in 2020, its deepest annual contraction since the Great Depression.

However, primary activities, which make up only a small part of the economy, were up 2.7% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period in 2019, INEGI said.

The severest months for the Mexican economy were April and May, when much of business activity ground to a halt, leading to the loss of roughly one million formal jobs. By Oct. 28, more than 400,000 jobs had been recovered, Lopez Obrador said.

Compared with the same period last year, Latin America’s no. 2 economy shrank by 8.6% in unadjusted terms in the third quarter, just less than the Reuters forecast of 8.7%.

Final third quarter data is due to be published on Nov. 26.

(Reporting by Dave Graham; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Chizu Nomiyama and Marguerita Choy)

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Lifted by U.S., Mexico economy rebounds 12% in third quarter from coronavirus – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Dave Graham

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy grew 12.0% during the third quarter, largely as expected, making up for much of the record contraction over the previous three months at the height of the coronavirus lockdown, preliminary data showed on Friday.

The seasonally-adjusted jump in gross domestic product (GDP) published by national statistics agency INEGI was fractionally better than the 11.9% expansion predicted by a Reuters poll.

The quarter-on-quarter increase was easily the biggest since current records began at the start of the 1980s, and benefited from massive stimulus spending in the United States.

U.S. demand helped Mexico rack up large trade surpluses during the past four months, as exports picked up speed, especially in the automotive industry. By contrast, domestic demand has lagged, with many businesses still struggling.

Alfredo Coutino, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Mexico was still heavily reliant on the U.S. economy, and forecast the recovery would slow in the months ahead.

“The Mexican economy is benefiting from the upturn in the U.S. business cycle, mainly through the U.S. demand for Mexican exports and remittances sent by Mexican migrants working in the U.S.,” Coutino said in a research note.

Between April and June, at the peak of Mexico’s pandemic lockdown, the economy shrank 17.1% from the first quarter.

Mexico has not recovered as quickly as the U.S. economy, which shrank by an annualized rate of 31.4% in the second quarter then jumped by 33.1% in the July-September period.

COMEBACK

Despite the economic chaos of the pandemic, remittances to Mexico have surged this year, and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has forecast they will reach a record $40 billion.

During a regular news conference, Lopez Obrador hailed the GDP figures as evidence the economy was bouncing back.

A breakdown of the data showed primary activities like farming, forestry and fishing advanced by 7.4% compared with the previous quarter. Secondary activities such as manufacturing increased by 22.0%, INEGI said. Meanwhile tertiary activities, which encompass consumer spending and services, climbed 8.6%.

Lopez Obrador was eager to point out that the primary sector, which he has pushed with schemes to boost farming and tree planting, is doing better now than it was a year ago.

Mexico’s economy is forecast to shrink almost 10% in 2020, its deepest annual contraction since the Great Depression.

However, primary activities, which make up only a small part of the economy, were up 2.7% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period in 2019, INEGI said.

The severest months for the Mexican economy were April and May, when much of business activity ground to a halt, leading to the loss of roughly one million formal jobs. By Oct. 28, more than 400,000 jobs had been recovered, Lopez Obrador said.

Compared with the same period last year, Latin America’s no. 2 economy shrank by 8.6% in unadjusted terms in the third quarter, just less than the Reuters forecast of 8.7%.

Final third quarter data is due to be published on Nov. 26.

(Reporting by Dave Graham; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Chizu Nomiyama and Marguerita Choy)

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