PARIS – Permafrost in Canada, Alaska and Siberia is abruptly crumbling in ways that could release large stores of greenhouse gases more quickly than anticipated, researchers have warned.
Scientists have long fretted that climate change — which has heated Arctic and subarctic regions at double the global rate — will release planet-warming carbon dioxide and methane that has remained safely locked inside Earth’s frozen landscapes for millennia.
It was assumed this process would be gradual, leaving humanity time to draw down carbon emissions enough to prevent permafrost thaw from tipping into a self-perpetuating vicious circle of ice melt and global warming.
But a study published in Nature Geoscience says projections of how much carbon would be released by this kind of slow-and-steady thawing overlook a less well-known process whereby certain types of icy terrain disintegrate suddenly — sometimes within days.
“Although abrupt permafrost thawing will occur in less than 20 percent of frozen land, it increases permafrost carbon release projections by about 50 percent,” said lead author Merritt Turetsky, head of the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research in Boulder, Colorado.
“Under all future warming scenarios, abrupt thaw leads to net carbon losses into the atmosphere,” she said.
Permafrost contains rocks, soil, sand and pockets of pure ground ice. Its rich carbon content is the remains of life that once flourished in the Arctic, including plants, animals and microbes.
This matter — which never fully decomposed — has been frozen for thousands of years.
It stretches across an area nearly as big as Canada and the United States combined, and holds about 1,500 billion tons or carbon — twice as much as in the atmosphere and three times the amount humanity has emitted since the start of industrialization.
Some of this once rock-solid ground has begun to soften, upending indigenous communities and threatening industrial infrastructure across the sub-Arctic region, especially in Russia.
The evidence is mixed as to whether this not-so-permanent permafrost has started to vent significant quantities of methane or carbon dioxide.
Projections are also uncertain, with some scientists saying future emissions may be at least partially offset by new vegetation, which absorbs and stores carbon dioxide.
But there is no doubt, experts say, that permafrost will continue to give way as temperatures climb.
In a special report published in September, the U.N.’s scientific advisory body for climate change, the IPCC, looked at two scenarios.
If humanity manages — against all odds — to cap global warming at under 2 degrees Celsius, the cornerstone goal of the 2015 Paris climate treaty, “permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 percent by 2100,” it concluded.
At the other extreme, if fossil fuel emissions continue to grow over the next 50 years — arguably an equally unlikely prospect — up to 70 percent of permafrost could disappear, the IPPC said.
But both scenarios assume the loss will be gradual, and that may be a mistake, Turetsky suggested.
“We estimate that abrupt permafrost thawing — in lowland lakes and wetlands, together with that in upland hills — could release 60 to 100 billion tons of carbon by 2300,” she noted in a comment also published by Nature.
One ton of carbon is equivalent to 3.67 tons of carbon dioxide, which means this would be equivalent to about eight years of global emissions at current rates.
“This is in addition to the 200 billion tons of carbon expected to be released in other regions that will thaw gradually,” she said.
Current climate models do not account for the possibility of rapid permafrost collapse and the amount of gases it might release, the study notes.
Abrupt thawing is “fast and dramatic,” Merritt said. “Forests can become lakes in the course of a month, landslides can occur with no warning, and invisible methane seep holes can swallow snowmobiles whole.”
HPC helps identify new, cleaner source for white light – EurekAlert
When early humans discovered how to harness fire, they were able to push back against the nightly darkness that enveloped them. With the invention and widespread adoption of electricity, it became easier to separate heat from light, work through the night, and illuminate train cars to highways. In recent years, old forms of electric light generation such as halogen lightbulbs have given way to more energy efficient alternatives, further cheapening the costs to brighten our homes, workplaces, and lives generally.
Unfortunately, however, white light generation by newer technologies such as light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is not straightforward and often relies on a category of materials called “rare-earth metals,” which are increasingly scarce. This has recently led scientists to look for ways to produce white light more sustainably. Researchers at Giessen University, the University of Marburg, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology have recently uncovered a new class of material called a “cluster glass” that shows great potential for replacing LEDs in many applications.
“We are witnessing the birth of white-light generation technology that can replace current light sources. It brings all the requirements that our society asks for: availability of resources, sustainability, biocompatibility,” said Prof. Dr. Simone Sanna, Giessen University Professor and lead computational researcher on the project. “My colleagues from the experimental sciences, who observed this unexpected white light generation, asked for theoretical support. Cluster glass has an incredible optical response, but we don’t understand why. Computational methods can help to understand those mechanisms. This is exactly the challenge that theoreticians want to face.”
Sanna and his collaborators have turned to the power of high-performance computing (HPC), using the Hawk supercomputer at the High-Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS) to better understand cluster glass and how it might serve as a next-generation light source. They published their findings in Advanced Materials.
Clear-eyed view on cluster glass formation
If you are not a materials scientist or chemist, the word glass might just mean the clear, solid material in your windows or on your dinner table. Glass is actually a class of materials that are considered “amorphous solids;” that is, they lack an ordered crystalline lattice, often due to a rapid cooling process. At the atomic level, their constituent particles are in a suspended, disordered state. Unlike crystal materials, where particles are orderly and symmetrical across a long molecular distance, glasses’ disorder at the molecular level make them great for bending, fragmenting, or reflecting light.
Experimentalists from the University of Marburg recently synthesized a particular of glass called a “cluster glass.” Unlike a traditional glass that almost behaves as a liquid frozen in place, cluster glass, as the name implies, is a collection of separate clusters of molecules that behave as a powder at room temperature. They generate bright, clear, white light upon irradiation by infrared radiation. While powders cannot easily be used to manufacture small, sensitive electronic components, the researchers found a way to re-cast them in glass form: “When we melt the powder, we obtain a material that has all the characteristics of a glass and can be put in any form needed for a specific application,” Sanna said.
While experimentalists were able to synthesize the material and observe its luminous properties, the group turned to Sanna and HPC to better understand how cluster glass behaves the way it does. Sanna pointed out that white light generation isn’t a property of a single molecule in a system, but the collective behaviors of a group of molecules. Charting these molecules’ interactions with one another and with their environment in a simulation therefore means that researchers must both capture the large-scale behaviors of light generation and also observe how small-scale atomic interactions influence the system. Any of these factors would be computationally challenging. Modeling these processes at multiple scales, however, is only possible using leading HPC resources like Hawk.
Collaboration between experimentalists and theoreticians has become increasingly important in materials science, as synthesizing many iterations of a similar material can be slow and expensive. High-performance computing, Sanna indicated, makes it much faster to identify and test materials with novel optical properties. “The relationship between theory and experiment is a continuous loop. We can predict the optical properties of a material that was synthesized by our chemist colleagues, and use these calculations to verify and better understand the material’s properties,” Sanna said. “We can also design new materials on a computer, providing information that chemists can use to focus on synthesizing compounds that have the highest likelihood of being useful. In this way, our models inspire the synthetization of new compounds with tailored optical properties”
In the case of cluster glass, this approach resulted in an experiment that was verified by simulation, with modelling helping to show the researchers the link between the observed optical properties and the molecular structure of their cluster glass material and can now move forward as a candidate to replace light sources heavily reliant on rare-earth metals.
HPC expedites R&D timelines
HPC plays a major role in helping researchers accelerate the timeline between new discovery and new product or technology. Sanna explained that HPC drastically cut down on the time to get a better understanding of cluster glass. “We spend a lot of time doing simulation, but it is much less than characterizing these materials in reality,” he said. “The clusters we model have a diamond-shaped core with 4 ligands (molecular chains) attached to it. Those ligands can be made of any number of things, so doing this in an experiment is time consuming.”
Sanna pointed out that the team is still limited by how long they can perform individual runs for their simulations. Many research projects on supercomputers can divide a complex system into many small parts and run calculations for each part in parallel. Sanna’s team needs to pay special attention to long-distance particle interactions across large systems, so they are limited by how much they can divide their simulation across computer nodes. He indicated that having regular access to longer run times—more than a day straight on a supercomputer—would allow the team to work more quickly.
In ongoing studies of cluster glass Sanna’s team hopes to thoroughly understand the origin of its light generating properties. This could help to identify additional new materials and to determine how best to apply cluster glass in light generation.
Sanna explained that HPC resources at HLRS were essential for his team’s basic science research, which he hopes will lead to new products that can benefit society. “The main computational achievement in this journal article was only possible through our access to the machine in Stuttgart,” he said.
Method of Research
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Cluster-Glass for Low-Cost White-Light Emission
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The sun is dying: Here’s how long it has before exhausting its fuel – Firstpost
A new study has estimated the sun’s evolutionary process will continue for billions of more years before it runs out of its fuel and turns into a red giant. It has revealed the past and future of the sun, how the sun will behave at what stage and when it will enter the dusk of its life
The sun is very likely going through its middle age, a recent study published in June this year by the European Space Agency (ESA), based on the observations from its Gaia spacecraft, has revealed.
The ESA’s Gaia telescope has revealed information that could help determine when the sun will die, which was formed around 4.57 billion years ago.
The study has estimated the sun’s evolutionary process to continue for billions of more years before it runs out of its fuel and turns into a red giant. The study has revealed the past and future of the sun, how the sun will behave at what stage and when it will enter the dusk of its life.
What has the ESA study revealed?
According to the report made public on 13 June, 2022, at the age of around 4.57 billion years, our sun is currently in its ”comfortable middle age, fusing hydrogen into helium and generally being rather stable; staid even”.
However, it will not be the case forever. The sun will eventually die. The information by ESA’s Gaia observatory has also revealed the process of its decay.
“As the hydrogen fuel runs out in its core, and changes begin in the fusion process, we expect it to swell into a red giant star, lowering its surface temperature in the process.”
Exactly how this happens depends on how much mass a star contains and its chemical composition.
To deduce this, astronomer Orlagh Creevey, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, France, and collaborators from Gaia’s Coordination Unit 8, and colleagues combed the data looking for the most accurate stellar observations that the spacecraft could offer.
“We wanted to have a really pure sample of stars with high precision measurements,” says Orlagh.
When will the sun die?
The study found that the sun will reach a maximum temperature of approximately 8 billion years of age, before starting to cool down and increase in size.
“It will become a red giant star around 10–11 billion years of age. The Sun will reach the end of its life after this phase, when it eventually becomes a dim white dwarf.”
A white dwarf is a former star that has exhausted all its hydrogen that it once used as it central nuclear fuel and lost its outer layers as a planetary nebula.
“If we don’t understand our own Sun – and there are many things we don’t know about it – how can we expect to understand all of the other stars that make up our wonderful galaxy,” Orlagh said.
By identifying similar stars to the sun, but this time with similar ages, the observational gap can be bridged in how much we know about the sun compared to other stars in the universe.
To identify these ‘solar analogues’ in the Gaia data, Orlagh and colleagues looked for stars with temperatures, surface gravities, compositions, masses and radii that are all similar to the present-day Sun. They found 5863 stars that matched their criteria.
With inputs from agencies
SLS ready to roll to LC-39B for launch, teams prepare for multiple launch trajectories – NASASpaceFlight.com – NASASpaceflight.com
NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket has completed all pre-launch preparations inside the Vehicle Assembly Building at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and is ready for its 4.2-mile (6.7-km) journey to Launch Complex 39B.
The multi-hour rollout process is currently set to begin at 9 PM EDT on Tuesday, August 16 (01:00 UTC on Wednesday, August 17), weather permitting – which should result in a sunrise arrival at the pad.
The rollout is the last major milestone ahead of launch, which will differ from most recent missions in that the rocket’s needed azimuth — or flight path — will continuously change through each day’s launch window.
Launching to the Moon
Launching into a rendezvous orbit with a satellite or station in low Earth orbit can be relatively simplified as needing to launch directly into the plane – and therefore the same orbital inclination – of the target’s orbit.
For example, when launching to the International Space Station from Florida, the azimuth the rocket follows is 44.98°. This does not change based on when within the daily window liftoff occurs.
However, the same is not true when trying to launch into an intercept trajectory with the Moon.
As related by Artemis 1 Ascent/Entry Flight Director Judd Frieling to NASASpaceflight during Artemis Day events in Mission Control at the Johnson Space Center, the Moon’s motion in its orbit coupled with its constantly-changing relative inclination to the launch site complicates the needed launch azimuth for SLS.
On each launch day, the azimuth SLS must fly moves incrementally, second-by-second, throughout the window to match the movement of the Moon relative to the Earth for the translunar injection (TLI) burn.
According to NASA, for SLS and Artemis 1, the azimuth at the opening of the window on all three launch attempts on August 29, September 2, and September 5 is 62°, resulting in a 38° inclination orbit.
At the end of each window, the azimuth flown would be 108° into a 32° inclination orbit.
But before SLS can be readied for its roll onto course on launch day, it must first arrive at the pad.
Rolling out for launch
The Artemis 1 launch rollout will mark the first time since May 31, 2011, that a vehicle will emerge from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at the Kennedy Space Center for launch operations.
As it has twice already for its wet dress rehearsal campaigns, the SLS rocket for Artemis 1 will make the journey to LC-39B atop crawler-transporter 2, one of two crawler-transporters owned by NASA and the only one modified to carry the full stack Artemis/SLS vehicle to the pad.
The upgrades were necessary due to the crawler’s age and the increased mass of the SLS vehicle with its combined Mobile Launcher (ML).
The combined SLS/ML weight is approximately 15 million pounds (6.8 million kg) and is significantly heavier than the previous record holder in the Space Shuttle at 12 million pounds (5.4 million kg).
Upgrades included a rating to handle 18 million pounds (8.1 million kg), a 50% greater load than was originally envisioned, as well as a new 1,500-kilowatt electrical power generator, parking and service brakes, redesigned and upgraded roller bearings, and several other modifications for the Artemis program.
Like the crawlers, their purpose-built road, the crawlerway, also underwent upgrades between Shuttle and SLS.
Beginning in 2013, the crawlerway’s foundations were repaired with new lime rock to return them to their original condition and ready them for the Block 1B SLS, presently scheduled for later this decade, which will be heavier than the Block 1 SLS used for Artemis 1.
Additionally, 30,000 tons of new Alabama river rock were added to return the crawlerway to its optimal depth.
For Launch Complex 39B, which was used for Apollo, Skylab, Apollo-Soyuz, Space Shuttle, and Ares I-X missions, the pad was slowly modified in stages, beginning in the final years of the Shuttle program, into a clean pad configuration with three, 600-foot (183 m) lightning towers connected with catenary wires.
The clean pad is without the Shuttle-era fixed and rotating service structures that serviced the Shuttle stack.
The sound suppression system, flame trench, cabling, and other systems were also upgraded during the transition to SLS. Work on Pad 39B has also included a new 1.25 million gallon liquid hydrogen tank, though this is not yet complete and will not be used for Artemis 1.
Pad 39B’s clean pad configuration was designed to be able to handle different types of rockets as part of a multi-user spaceport emphasis. To date, only Northrop Grumman expressed interest in the pad share for their now-canceled OmegA rocket.
Artemis 1 is scheduled to spend 13 days at Pad 39B after the August 16 rollout. During this time, the ML will be hooked up to the plumbing servicing the rocket with liquid oxygen, liquid hydrogen, helium, and liquid nitrogen.
Other round systems required for the launch will also be activated while teams conduct system checks on the SLS and Orion. Should all go well, the stage will be set for the 60th overall launch — and the second flight to the Moon after Apollo 10 — from Pad 39B.
The Artemis 1 countdown is currently scheduled to begin with Call To Stations at 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) on August 27. Fueling would begin early in the morning of August 29 for a two-hour launch window opening at 8:33 AM EDT (12:33 UTC).
Overall, Artemis 1 has 25 days to launch after the flight termination system (FTS) testing on the launch vehicle was completed on August 12.
Should Artemis 1 not be able to launch on August 29, launch windows for September 2 and 5 are available.
The two-hour September 2 launch window starts at 12:48 PM EDT (16:48 UTC) while the September 5 window lasts for 90 minutes, starting at 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC).
Should Artemis 1 not be able to make any of the launch windows, crawler-transporter 2 would return to Pad 39B to roll the stack back to the VAB for FTS replacement and any other work the vehicle or ML might need before the next available launch window, most likely October 17 through 31.
Wide-angle photo showing the enormous Vehicle Assembly Building, standing 525 ft. tall. The crawler-transporter 2 is now in place under @NASA_SLS and @NASA_Orion and ready for tomorrow’s roll out to Launch Pad 39B. pic.twitter.com/fCDGS0wouf
— NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems (@NASAGroundSys) August 15, 2022
Together, the first two SLS/Orion Artemis missions will pave the way for the first human lunar landing since 1972 on Artemis 3, currently scheduled for no earlier than late 2025.
Artemis 3 will use the SLS and Orion to ferry astronauts to lunar orbit, where a waiting SpaceX Starship lander procured under the HLS contract will transport them to and from the surface near the Moon’s south pole.
Just under 50 years after humanity last left the Moon in December 1972, Artemis 1 stands ready to begin our return journey. This time, to stay.
(Lead photo: SLS basking in the morning sun at LC-39B. Credit: Stephen Marr for NSF)
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