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If Trump wins in 2020 Here’s what Canadians can expect
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TORONTO —
This November, Americans will cast their ballots in what will undoubtedly be the most watched election of the year.
Whether or not U.S. President Donald Trump can pull off a second win is far from certain. The Democratic race for president remains unusually crowded, and while it’s unlikely that the Republican-held Senate will vote to remove Trump from office, the results of the impeachment proceedings are still technically undecided.
What is clear is that a second term for Trump would give the billionaire president another four years in the Oval Office – a time when many presidents focus on crafting their political legacies.
But what would that look like? And what would it mean for Canada?
CTVNews.ca spoke with several political scientists, economists and Canada-U.S. relations experts to get a sense of what our country could expect if Trump wins re-election.
LUMBER, AUTO INDUSTRIES IN LIMBO
For certain businesses that rely on cross-border trade, a second term for Trump could lead to more volatility.
Canada’s auto industry directly employs 125,000 workers and indirectly affects another 400,000 workers. Some of those jobs could be at risk thanks to Trump’s war with California over fuel efficiency standards, according to Werner Antweiler, a business professor at the University of British Columbia and an expert in international trade.
In hopes of making cars more energy efficient and cutting back on gas emissions, former U.S. president Barack Obama introduced measures that would have nearly doubled fuel efficiency for all vehicles by 2025. Trump campaigned on a plan to freeze those standards. But California — the country’s most populous state — opted to follow through on Obama’s goals, a move that prompted Trump to tweet that Henry Ford was “rolling over” in his grave.
This uncertainty leaves Canadian auto makers in the lurch, Antweiler said, because they will be forced to choose which group to side with.
“Where will Canada be? Will Canada follow California, or will it revert to the lower federal standards in the U.S.?” he said. “We have a very important auto industry in Canada that is historically always aligned with the U.S., and I see a battle shaping up.”
Then there is the Canadian lumber industry, which was hit by steep tariffs during Trump’s first year in office. The U.S. has accused Ottawa of unfairly subsidizing lumber and then selling it to the U.S.
Canada has filed complaints under the World Trade Organization and NAFTA, but the issue remains unresolved, even under the newly agreed upon Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA.
“This file is still one that’s dangling,” Antweiler said.
“Ultimately, we need something that provides predictability to the lumber sector in Canada so that we’re not going to get short-changed again from arbitrary rules from the U.S.”
A RECESSION IN 2020?
Fears of a recession have been on economists’ lips since August, when markets reported a yield curve inversion. Every recession since 1957 has followed a yield curve inversion, which happens when the payout for 10-year bonds suddenly slips below the payout for two-year bonds — a scenario that is essentially the opposite of what happens in a well-functioning, healthy economy.
Trump’s ongoing trade war with China — pitting the world’s two biggest economies against each other — has only worsened those fears.
“There are danger signs on the horizon,” Antweiler said.
“If Mr. Trump undermines the confidence of the world economy and we end up in a recession, that would be a particularly bad outcome for the United States, but also for Canada as well.”
‘TRUMP ERA’ SOLIDIFIED
Pollsters didn’t forecast a win for Trump in 2016, and so his victory came as a surprise to many political pundits.
If Trump were to win in 2020, the narrative would be different, according to Fan Lu, assistant professor of political studies at Queen’s University.
“When Trump won the first time, we thought it was a fluke. But if he wins a second time, it’s a pattern and something that is symptomatic,” she said.
“If that’s the case, then Canada as a country has to decide if it wants to serve as a counterpoint to Trump’s America or follow in its footsteps.”
As close neighbours, Canada and the U.S. share many similar problems, but Lu expects conversations around immigration will be especially heated if Trump wins again.
“I think the conversation already started when Trump imposed the Muslim ban and Trudeau tweeted out in 2017 … ‘to those fleeing persecution, Canadians will welcome you,’” Lu said. “And (Trudeau) has been somewhat blamed by some Canadians for increasing the illegal entries into Canada at these border crossings.”
Since the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada started tracking irregular border crossers in February 2017, Canada has received 45,517 refugee claims as of June 2019. Of those, 9,069 have been accepted. Another 27,173 claims are pending, while 7,786 claims have been rejected.
If Trump is re-elected, Lu expects debate around illegal border crossings will “ramp up and become even more salient.”
Lu’s research closely follows race in America. Trump has called Mexicans “rapists,” told four Congresswomen of colour to “go back home” and described a majority-black district in Baltimore as a “rat and rodent infested mess.”
Those sorts of comments only embolden people who hold racist views, Lu said, including “certain wings of Canada that would welcome” such behaviour.
“So if he gets re-elected, it legitimizes this sect of the electorate even more.”
DRUGS AND HEALTH CARE
Trump isn’t afraid to call out political leaders or foreign policies he doesn’t agree with. Recently, he threatened to use Britain’s National Health Service as a bartering tool in Brexit trade negotiations.
Wayne Petrozzi, a professor emeritus of politics from Ryerson University, suspects that Trump wouldn’t be afraid to similarly meddle in Canada.
“I have no doubt. Look at his willingness to use tariffs against Canada in discussions around the (CUSMA) trade agreement. All of the sudden there was this idea that Canada was a national security risk, so all of the sudden (Trump was) putting tariffs on Canadian steel,” he said.
On the chopping block, Petrozzi suggests, could be the Canadian health-care system or the pharmaceutical industry, which sells drugs like insulin at a fraction of American prices thanks to the government’s involvement in controlling prices.
“This has been an issue that has risen to the surface and slid back under the waves in the past,” Petrozzi said.
“There’s a longstanding complaint from the pharmaceutical sector in the United States about the way Canadian governments use bulk buying in order to reduce prescription drug costs. There has been criticism coming out of (the U.S.) about what they call the uneven playing field in Canada and the United States, and they’re concerned about that … I could easily see pharmaceuticals and more broadly the Canadian health sector becoming a flash point.”
However, on access to low-cost drugs, it appears Trump is open to working with Canada. In mid-December, the Trump administration said it intended to move ahead with a plan to allow Americans to import certain brand name drugs from Canada at cheaper prices.
The move was criticized by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s spokesperson, who pointed out that Trump has offered no deadline to implement the plan.
WHAT IF A DEMOCRAT WINS?
If a Democrat pulls off a win in November, don’t expect Canada-U.S. relations to immediately get warmer.
In fact, depending on the Democrat, Canada could face entirely new challenges, according to Craig Geoffrey, an assistant professor who teaches classes on corporate finance at the University of Toronto.
Some candidates, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have campaigned on plans to rein in big banks. Many Canadian jobs — especially in Toronto — are closely tied to the financial service industry, and if Sanders or Warren followed through on those promises, “that’s going to have a negative impact for employment in Canada,” Geoffrey said.
“They have a lot of exposure to the U.S.,” he said. “If there are real legislative changes in the U.S. that make financial services less profitable, that’s going to hurt them.”
OTTAWA –
The first instalment of the 2024 Canada carbon rebate will be delivered to some Canadians Monday as long as they filed their taxes by the middle of March.
Canadians living in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and all four Atlantic provinces will receive the first of four instalments Monday if they filed their 2023 taxes by March 15.
Those who filed their taxes since March 15 will see their first instalment on May 15, while those who file after Monday will wait until June or July.
The payments are based on household size and for a family of four range from $190 in New Brunswick to $450 in Alberta.
Ottawa also has just launched a new online estimator that shows how much you should get from the rebates.
In a bid to make the rebates more understandable Ottawa renamed them the “Canada Carbon Rebate” this year but is still negotiating with the big banks about changing how the deposits are labelled when they show up in your account.
Ottawa has been battling with banks about how the deposits are labelled since they moved to quarterly payments for the rebates in 2022.
Many Canadians were confused, or didn’t realize they even got the rebate, when payments showed up with vague labels including “EFT deposit from Canada”, “EFT Credit Canada.” or sometimes just “federal payment.”
The federal government asked the banks to help label them with the old moniker — the climate action incentive payment — but some didn’t arguing they had a 15 character limit for deposit description.
The deposits will be labelled different depending on where you bank, with some going with the full Canada Carbon Rebate name, others shortening it “CDACarbonRebate” or “Canada CCR/RCC.”
In French, the labels could be “Carbone RemiseCA” or “Dépôt direct/Remise canadienne sur carbone.”
The rebates are sent to offset what people pay in carbon pricing when they buy fuel so they’re not left worse off as a result.
People who do things to lower their fuel use are even better off because they still get the same rebate but pay less in carbon pricing.
The rebate amounts are set annually based on how much carbon price Ottawa expects to collect in each province.
British Columbia, Quebec and Northwest Territories have their own carbon pricing system for consumers so residents there don’t receive the federal payment. Yukon and Nunavut use the federal system but have an agreement to distribute the proceeds themselves.
The parliamentary budget officer says about 80 per cent of Canadians get back more from the rebates than they pay.
He also says though that the economic impact of carbon pricing could lower wages over time, erasing that benefit for some Canadians. The government however argues that climate change itself can cause economic harm if it is left unchecked.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 15, 2024.
Since Meta blocked links to news in Canada last August to avoid paying fees to media companies, right-wing meme producer Jeff Ballingall says he has seen a surge in clicks for his Canada Proud Facebook page.
“Our numbers are growing and we’re reaching more and more people every day,” said Ballingall, who publishes up to 10 posts a day and has some 540,000 followers.
“Media is just going to get more tribal and more niche,” he added. “This is just igniting it further.”
Canada has become ground zero for Facebook’s battle with governments that have enacted or are considering laws that force internet giants — primarily the social media platform’s owner Meta and Alphabet’s Google — to pay media companies for links to news published on their platforms.
Facebook has blocked news sharing in Canada rather than pay, saying news holds no economic value to its business.
It is seen as likely to take a similar step in Australia should Canberra try to enforce its 2021 content licensing law after Facebook said it would not extend the deals it has with news publishers there. Facebook briefly blocked news in Australia ahead of the law.
The blocking of news links has led to profound and disturbing changes in the way Canadian Facebook users engage with information about politics, two unpublished studies shared with Reuters found.
“The news being talked about in political groups is being replaced by memes,” said Taylor Owen, founding director of McGill University’s Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, who worked on one of the studies.
“The ambient presence of journalism and true information in our feeds, the signals of reliability that were there, that’s gone.”
Young people on Instagram will face new barriers if they send or receive nude photos. The move is intended to protect kids against abuse and blackmail, but child advocates say parent company Meta isn’t doing enough.
The lack of news on the platform and increased user engagement with opinion and non-verified content has the potential to undermine political discourse, particularly in election years, the studies’ researchers say. Both Canada and Australia go to the polls in 2025.
Other jurisdictions, including California and Britain, are also considering legislation to force internet giants to pay for news content. Indonesia introduced a similar law this year.
Blocked
In practice, Meta’s decision means that when someone makes a post with a link to a news article, Canadians will see a box with the message: “In response to Canadian government legislation, news content can’t be shared.”
Where once news posts on Facebook garnered between five million and eight million views from Canadians per day, that has disappeared, according to the Media Ecosystem Observatory, a McGill University and University of Toronto project.
Although engagement with political influencer accounts such as partisan commentators, academics and media professionals was unchanged, reactions to image-based posts in Canadian political Facebook groups tripled to match the previous engagement with news posts, the study also found.
The research analyzed some 40,000 posts and compared user activity before and after the blocking of news links on the pages of some 1,000 news publishers, 185 political influencers and 600 political groups.
A Meta spokesperson said the research confirmed the company’s view that people still come “to Facebook and Instagram even without news on the platform.”
Canadians can still access “authoritative information from a range of sources” on Facebook, and the company’s fact-checking process was “committed to stopping the spread of misinformation on our services,” the spokesperson said.
‘Unreliable’ sources
A separate NewsGuard study conducted for Reuters found that likes, comments and shares of what it categorized as “unreliable” sources climbed to 6.9 per cent in Canada in the 90 days after the ban, compared to 2.2 per cent in the 90 days before.
“This is especially troubling,” said Gordon Crovitz, co-chief executive of New York-based NewsGuard, a fact-checking company which scores websites for accuracy.
Crovitz noted the change has come at a time when “we see a sharp uptick in the number of AI-generated news sites publishing false claims and growing numbers of faked audio, images and videos, including from hostile governments … intended to influence elections.”
School boards in the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa are taking some of the largest social media companies to court over their products, alleging they are harming students and the broader education system. CBC’s Dale Manucdoc dives into what we know so far about the lawsuit.
Canadian Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge in an emailed statement to Reuters called Meta’s blocking of news an “unfortunate and reckless choice” that had left “disinformation and misinformation to spread on their platform … during need-to-know situations like wildfires, emergencies, local elections and other critical times.”
Asked about the studies, Australian Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones said via email: “Access to trusted, quality content is important for Australians, and it is in Meta’s own interest to support this content on its platforms.”
Jones, who will decide whether to hire an arbitrator to set Facebook’s media licensing arrangements, said the government had made clear its position to Meta that Australian news media businesses should be “fairly remunerated for news content used on digital platforms.”
Meta declined to comment on future business decisions in Australia but said it would continue engaging with the government.
Facebook remains the most popular social media platform for current affairs content, studies show, even though it has been declining as a news source for years amid an exodus of younger users to rivals and Meta’s strategy of de-prioritizing politics in user feeds.
In Canada, where four-fifths of the population is on Facebook, 51 per cent obtained news on the platform in 2023, the Media Ecosystem Observatory said.
Two-thirds of Australians are on Facebook and 32 per cent used the platform for news last year, the University of Canberra said.
Unlike Facebook, Google has not indicated any changes to its deals with news publishers in Australia and reached a deal with the Canadian government to make payments to a fund that will support media outlets.
More than 800 workers responsible for providing food and beverages on flights leaving Toronto Pearson International Airport are on strike.
The Gate Gourmet workers, an airline catering and logistics company, went on strike Tuesday after voting 96 per cent to reject a final offer from the company, Teamsters Local Union 647 said in a statement.
“Our members accepted a wage freeze during the pandemic to help this company survive,” said Martin Cerqua, lead union negotiator and president of Local Union 647.
“Now their managers brag about how profitable their operations have become at Pearson, while proposing wage increases as low as 89 cents an hour.”
The union expects many flights leaving Toronto will have little to no food on board; impacted airlines include WestJet, United Airlines, Delta Airlines, TAP Air Portugal, Air India, Aero Mexico, SAS Scandinavian Airlines, Jetlines, as well as Air Canada, which the union said will be most affected by the strike.
The union added Gate Gourmet workers are paid on average between $17.69 and $20 per hour, below other airline catering companies in Toronto and Gate Gourmet workers in Vancouver. The union also claims slashed staffing levels have put workers at risk.
In a statement, Gate Gourmet Canada said it’s “disappointed” that a strike is underway.
“On Friday, the union informed us that they would cease negotiations and demanded a final offer, which Gate Gourmet Canada presented. The union walked away from the negotiating table, despite our belief that Gate Gourmet’s offer is fair and market competitive,” it said, adding the company was offering a 12 per cent pay raise over three years.
“At our operation in Toronto, we have established contingency plans with our airline customers to minimize any impact on them and their passengers. We remain committed to doing right by our employees and ending the strike so that we can continue to partner with our airlines customers and serve the travelling public.”
Air Canada, WestJet respond to strike
Air Canada and WestJet, Canada’s largest airlines, said in separate statements they’ve prepared for the work stoppage.
“We anticipate there will be no impact on our international flights, but we plan to make some adjustments to food and beverage service on certain North American flights departing from and, in some cases on shorter routes, returning to Toronto,” an Air Canada spokesperson told Global News Toronto in a statement Tuesday.
“Short-haul flights of less than two hours duration being most impacted.”
The airline added that flights over two hours within North America will have fewer menu options, while flights under two hours will not have hot meals available; snacks and water service will remain.
Meanwhile, WestJet said its Boeing 737 flights leaving Pearson will be impacted.
“Guests who are eligible to receive an inflight meal including those in the Premium cabin or extended comfort seating, and all guests travelling on transatlantic flights will receive either an alternative option or a food and beverage voucher for use in the terminal, pre-departure,” the company said in a statement on its website.
“In addition, WestJet is advising guests travelling to or from Toronto to plan ahead and bring an extra snack and/or beverage for their journey.”
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© 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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