Canada’s largest real estate markets have seen a dramatic slowdown since the onset of the pandemic. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows the number of permanent residents made a sharp decline in May. While Toronto and Vancouver can attribute this trend to the pandemic, it’s been a more long-term issue for Montreal.
Toronto Immigration Drops Over 69%
The number of permanent residents admitted to settle in Greater Toronto is down for a third month now. There 3,630 permanent residents admitted in May, down 69.6% from a year before. This is an improvement from the 84.2% drop experienced in April, but is still less than half the admissions we saw last year. The decline can almost exclusively be attributed to the pandemic, having started in March of this year.
New Canadian Permanent Residents By Market
The monthly number of permanent residents admitted to Canada, by intended market to reside.
Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Immigration Drops Over 63%
Permanent residents to the Greater Vancouver region are still dropping, for a third consecutive month. There were 1,430 permanent residents admitted in May, down 63.8% from last year. This is an improvement from the 91.1% decline the month before, but is also still down by more than half. Vancouver’s decline also lines up with the pandemic, having started in March.
New Canadian Permanent Residents By Market Change
The percent change of permanent residents admitted to Canada per month, by intended market to reside.
Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Montreal Immigration Drops Over 63%
Permanent residents to Greater Montreal made a sharp drop, but this has been a much more long-term trend. There were 1,215 permanent residents admitted in May, down 63.2% from a year before. An improvement over the 93.9% a month before, but year over declines for the region have been relatively consistent since 2016.
The decline in migration is likely temporary, especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver that line up with the pandemic declaration. That said, immigraiton typically lines up with the business cycle, rising during global peaks and falling during global downturns. Considering forecasts are expecting the global economy to be in a recessionary environment until at least next year, this could put a damper on a quick recovery.
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