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Inflation: What Omicron could mean for prices in 2022 – Global News

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If you’re wondering what inflation will be like in 2022, economists have a go-to answer: it really depends on just how the Omicron wave of COVID-19 evolves.

“We’re pretty comfortable with the notion that if we can get the global supply chain unglued … inflation will come down over time from where it is now,” says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC.

“The problem is, unless you have a crystal ball on COVID and know when we’re going to have enough of the world’s population vaccinated so we don’t keep getting these disruptions to manufacturing and shipping around the world, it’s very difficult to predict how long that’s going to take,” he adds.

Read more:

Canada’s annual inflation rate holds steady in November at 4.7%

Canada’s inflation rate held steady at 4.7 per cent in November, matching the reading from October, which was the highest since February 2003, Statistics Canada said on Dec. 15.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has called the current bout of rapidly rising prices “transitory but not short-lived.” The central bank has attributed inflation to worldwide supply snarls that are pushing up the prices of anything from food to new vehicles, a rebound in the price of some goods that had become cheaper in the earlier stages of the pandemic, and soaring energy costs.

Read more:

Omicron uncertainty clouding Canada’s inflation forecasts: fiscal update

The federal government’s fall fiscal update, which Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled on Dec. 14, warns the rapid spread of the Omicron variant “clouds” the outlook for inflation.

“The path forward will depend on a number of tailwinds and headwinds, which could either bolster the recovery or push it off course. Of concern, the global health situation has deteriorated in recent weeks, with resurgences of COVID-19 in some regions and the emergence of a new variant, Omicron,” the update reads.

Rising case counts tied to the new variant could further complicate global supply chain challenges but also slowed energy demand, temporarily dampening energy prices, economists told Global News.


Click to play video: 'Omicron and travel restrictions'



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Omicron and travel restrictions


Omicron and travel restrictions

Inflation likely to remain elevated next year

Another spike in COVID-19 cases could throw a wrench in the process of getting factory production and global shipping capacity back to normal, Shenfeld says.

Still, some of the factors that drove up prices in 2021 might “ebb somewhat” in 2022, says Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO.

Auto prices, for example, are unlikely to rise as much as they did this year amid the global chips shortage, he says. And Canada’s home prices are also unlikely to replicate the gravity-defying climb of 2021, he adds.

Read more:

Quebec, Ontario, P.E.I., introduce new measures to slow Omicron spread

In a report released on Dec. 15, Royal LePage said it expects the aggregate price of a home in Canada to rise 10.5 per cent year-over-year in 2022. While significant, that price gain would be smaller than the year-over-year increases recorded throughout 2021.

In November, for example, Canada’s average home sale price was $720,850, up nearly 20 per cent from the same month last year, according to the latest available data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Still, food inflation may yet get worse before it gets better due to the global supply chain logjams, high energy prices and extreme weather events that have curtailed crop yields.

Food prices are expected to rise between five and seven per cent in 2022, the steepest increase yet forecasted by Canada’s Food Price Report, which has been estimating food inflation for the past 12 years. Restaurant meals, dairy, vegetable and bakery prices will deliver the biggest hit to Canadians’ bottom lines, with the average family of four expected to spend an additional $1,000 a year on groceries over the next 12 months.

READ MORE: Why everything you want is out of stock or more expensive

Overall, BMO expects inflation to average around 3.5 per cent in 2022, much higher than what Canadians have become accustomed to over the past 20 years, but lower than the rate seen over the past few months.


Click to play video: 'Bank of Canada renews inflation target, Freeland says'



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Bank of Canada renews inflation target, Freeland says


Bank of Canada renews inflation target, Freeland says

Omicron could temporarily result in lower gas prices

The spread of Omicron could temporarily lower prices at the pump by once again depressing global demand for travel and delaying the return to the office for commuters around the world, says Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter.

Oil prices dropped to around US$73 ($94) a barrel on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency predicted Omicron would dent global demand recovery.

But any dip in gas prices would likely be short-lived, Johnston adds.

Read more:

Omicron is raging in the U.K. What can Canada learn?

OPEC+, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia, plans to boost supply every month by 400,000 barrels per day after sharply cutting output last year.

On the other hand, U.S. oil production likely won’t increase as much as it has done in the past in response to previous increases in oil prices, Johnston says.

U.S. oil producers seem keen to reward stockholders with share buybacks and dividend increases rather than spending cash to invest and boost output, he adds.

While motorists may see a bit of a reprieve in the first three months of the year, Johnston says gasoline prices are likely to climb back up later on in the year, making for an expensive driving season in 2022.


Click to play video: 'How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022'



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How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022


How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022

Interest rate still likely in the spring

Despite the economic uncertainty tied to Omicron, economists still expect the Bank of Canada to go ahead with interest rate hikes starting in the spring of 2022.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow, cooling down economic activity and putting downward pressure on inflation.

“We still think that the Bank of Canada can start raising interest rates in the spring,” Shenfeld says.

Still, Canada’s central bank can “afford to take it slowly,” he adds. Interest rates will likely climb by less than a percentage point in 2022, with a few further hikes expected in 2023, according to Shenfeld.

Higher rates would likely dampen inflation quickly, Porter says.

“It might take 18 months (for a rate hike) to fully work its way through the system, but I suspect that rate increases could be having a real effect within six months.”

with files from Reuters

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COVID-19 antiviral pill on its way across Canada, as some hospitalizations dip – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News

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Alanna Smith, The Canadian Press


Published Wednesday, January 19, 2022 2:47PM EST


Last Updated Wednesday, January 19, 2022 5:07PM EST

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the first shipment of an oral COVID-19 pill is making its way across Canada but is no substitute for vaccination against the rapidly spreading virus.

The entire northern Quebec region of Nunavik is on “red alert” with more than half of its 14 Inuit communities struggling with high viral transmission.

Other provinces and territories are bracing for a peak in the pandemic’s fifth wave with hospitalizations beginning to level out.

The antiviral drug Paxlovid is meant to protect against hospitalization and death. Canada has purchased one million courses for delivery this year.

“It’s important to remember that this will be a powerful tool to continue to keep people from people getting extremely sick but it needs to be used right,” Trudeau said Wednesday.

“It’s not a replacement for getting vaccinated, for wearing masks, for staying safe, for keeping your distance.”

The Omicron variant-fuelled fifth wave appears to be peaking in some provinces, while others warn the worst is yet to come.

Quebec reported its lowest daily increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations with a rise of eight, bringing the total to 3,425 people in hospital. It also saw a slight decline in intensive care patients.

In Nunavik, a curfew is in effect and all non-essential public places are closed with private indoor gatherings banned.

Meanwhile, Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott said there are “glimmers of hope” that COVID-19 cases will peak this month with hospitalization and intensive care admissions to follow.

The province recorded a small dip in the number of people with COVID-19 in hospital to 4,132 patients from 4,183, as intensive care patients rose by eight to 589. Fifty-nine new deaths were also reported.

Many types of Ontario businesses continue to be closed under public health restrictions, but Premier Doug Ford said to expect a “positive” announcement on measures later this week.

In British Columbia, some businesses are eligible for a financial boost from the province as they are forced to stay closed for at least another month to curb COVID-19 spread.

Places such as event venues, bars and nightclubs that don’t serve meals can now apply for grants of up to $20,000. Businesses that have been able to reopen can claim up to half that amount.

Manitoba’s top doctor said Wednesday the Omicron wave could peak soon, as the province logged a slight increase in hospitalizations and intensive care cases.

“Looking at other jurisdictions … it would be reasonable to expect that peak in the near future if we maintain the same trajectory,” said Dr. Brent Roussin, adding “it’s a little early to consider.”

Meanwhile, Saskatchewan is bracing for a tide ofCOVID-19 hospitalizations and absences among workers until mid-February,while more than 1,600 volunteers have answered a call from New Brunswick for pandemic assistance.

A surge of hospitalizations and a shortage of health-care staff led New Brunswick to ask people to help with clinical or non-clinical work, such as vaccine administration.

Almost 350 workers were isolating Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19. New Brunswick has a record 123 people in hospital with COVID-19.

Prince Edward Island announced new restrictions this week to protect its health system. Nova Scotia, meanwhile, was the only Atlantic province to return to in-person learning at public schools this week.

Alberta is seeing hospitalization rates rising to levels not seen since mid-October. As case rates continue to climb, one of its largest school boards is asking the government to open vaccine clinics in schools.

Edmonton Public Schools said more than 5,000 of its students were absent Tuesday due to COVID-19 – about five per cent of its total student population.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 19, 2022.

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Airlines cancel some flights after reduced 5G rollout in U.S. – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News

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Jon Gambrell And David Koenig, The Associated Press


Published Wednesday, January 19, 2022 11:20AM EST


Last Updated Wednesday, January 19, 2022 6:00PM EST

DALLAS (AP) – Some flights to and from the U.S. were canceled on Wednesday even after AT&T and Verizon scaled back the rollout of high-speed wireless service that could interfere with aircraft technology that measures altitude.

International carriers that rely heavily on the wide-body Boeing 777, and other Boeing aircraft, canceled flights or switched to different planes following warnings from the Federal Aviation Administration and the Chicago-based plane maker.

Airlines that fly only or mostly Airbus jets, including Air France and Ireland’s Aer Lingus, seemed relatively unaffected by the new 5G service.

Airlines had canceled more than 250 flights by midafternoon Wednesday, or 3% of the U.S. total, according to FlightAware. That was far less disruptive than during the Christmas and New Year’s travel season, when a peak of 3,200, or 13%, of flights were canceled on Jan. 3 due to winter storms and workers out sick with COVID-19.

A trade group for the industry, Airlines for America, said cancellations weren’t as bad as feared because telecom providers agreed to temporarily reduce the rollout of 5G near dozens of airports while industry and the government work out a longer-term solution.

At O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Sudeep Bhabad said his father-in-law’s flight to India was cancelled.

“They have to resolve this problem,” Bhabad said. “It would have been a lot better if they had resolved it way before and we knew this in advance, instead of, like, finding out when we are here at the airport.”

Similar mobile networks have been deployed in more than three dozen countries, but there are key differences in how the U.S. networks are designed that raised concern of potential problems for airlines.

The Verizon and AT&T networks use a segment of the radio spectrum that is close to the one used by radio altimeters, devices that measure the height of aircraft above the ground to help pilots land in low visibility. The telecoms and the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, which set a buffer between the frequencies used by 5G and altimeters, said the wireless service posed no risk to aviation.

But FAA officials saw a potential problem, and the telecom companies agreed to delay their rollout near more than 80 airports while the agency assesses which aircraft are safe to fly in proximity of 5G, and which will need new altimeters.

At the moment, close to 40% of the U.S. airline fleet lacks FAA approval to land in low-visibility near 5G signals. The FAA said it recently cleared five more models of altimeters, including three on Wednesday.

“I assume whatever process they are using could be used to clear the rest,” said Randall Berry, a professor of electrical engineering at Northwestern University.

The Boeing 777 isn’t the only aircraft using altimeters awaiting approval from the FAA, and not all 777s have altimeters that are incompatible with 5G, according to the FAA.

The FAA says there are several reasons why the 5G rollout has been more of a challenge for airlines in the U.S. than in other countries: American cellular towers use a more powerful signal strength than those elsewhere; the 5G network operates on a frequency closer to the one many altimeters use, and cell tower antennae point up at a higher angle.

Some experts say poor coordination and cooperation among federal agencies is as much to blame as any technical issues.

“The fights around this from federal agencies have just gotten more and more intense,” said Harold Feld, an expert on telecom policy at the advocacy group Public Knowledge.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency said it wasn’t aware of any problems on the continent caused by 5G interference. To mitigate airline interference, French telecom providers reduce the strength of their high-speed networks near airports.

Boeing Co. said in a statement it would work with airlines, the FAA and others to ensure that all planes can fly safely as 5G is rolled out.

In the meantime, airlines scrambled to adjust to the new reality.

Emirates, which relies heavily on the 777, halted flights to several American cities on Wednesday, but maintained service to Los Angeles, New York and Washington.

“We are working closely with aircraft manufacturers and the relevant authorities to alleviate operational concerns, and we hope to resume our U.S. services as soon as possible,” the state-owned airline said.

Tim Clark, president of Emirates, pulled no punches when discussing the issue. He told CNN it was “one of the most delinquent, utterly irresponsible” situations he’d ever seen as it involved a failure by government, science and industry.

Japan’s All Nippon Airways canceled 20 flights to cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, while Japan Airlines said it will stop using the 777 in the continental U.S. for now. Eight of its flights were affected Wednesday.

Air India announced on Twitter it would cancel flights to Chicago, Newark, New York and San Francisco because of the 5G issue. But it also said it would try to use other aircraft on U.S. routes – a course several other airlines took.

Korean Air, Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific and Austrian Airlines said they substituted different planes for flights that were scheduled to use 777s. Germany’s Lufthansa swapped out one kind of 747 for another on some U.S.-bound flights.

Choi Jong-yun, a spokeswoman of Asiana Airlines, said the company hasn’t been affected so far because it uses Airbus planes for passenger flights to the U.S.

However, Choi said airlines have also been instructed by the FAA to avoid autopilot landings at affected U.S. airports during bad weather conditions, regardless of plane type. Asiana will redirect its planes to nearby airports during those conditions, she said.

FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said in a statement that the 5G “deployment can safely co-exist with aviation technologies in the United States, just as it does in other countries around the world.” However, she urged the FAA to conduct its safety checks with “both care and speed.”

Gambrell reported from Dubai. Associated Press video journalist Teresa Crawford in Chicago and AP writers Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul, South Korea, Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo, Ken Moritsugu in Beijing, David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, Frank Jordans in Berlin, Angela Charlton in Paris, Kelvin Chan in London and Isabel DeBre in Dubai contributed to this report.

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Airlines say Canadian flights unaffected by turmoil over 5G wireless launch in U.S. – CTV News

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MONTREAL –

Canadian airlines say flights to the U.S. remain unaffected by the rollout of new 5G wireless technology.

Several international airlines cancelled flights to the United States this week over concerns that 5G mobile phone service could interfere with aircraft technology.

On Wednesday, telecommunications giants Verizon and AT&T announced last-minute delays to the service launch near key U.S. airports — the latest of three postponements since early December — after U.S. carriers warned that the wireless frequency could cause widespread flight disruptions.

Critics say the new C-band 5G service operates in a frequency range that could interfere with airplane radio altimeters, which measure an aircraft’s height above the ground and help pilots land in low visibility.

Air Canada and WestJet Airlines Inc. say no flights to the U.S. have been cancelled due to the issue.

Last fall, the federal Industry Department established protective measures, including so-called exclusion zones near airports, to reduce any interference with radio altimeters while allowing deployment of 5G systems in the 3,500-megahertz band in Canada.(The planned 5G rollout by American telecoms falls between 4,200 and 4,400 megahertz.)

It also imposed a “national antenna down-tilt requirement” on telecoms to protect helicopters and planes used in low-altitude military and search and rescue operations as well as medical evacuations, “which by nature do not fly predictable routes into and out of major airports,” the department’s Nov. 18 decision reads.

“It is expected that as new information and studies become available, and as new radio altimeter standards are developed internationally, these measures may be modified or relaxed well within the 20-year term of ISED’s 3,500 MHz licenses,” Industry Department spokesman Hans Parmar said in an email.

John Gradek, head of McGill University’s aviation management program, says 5G networks in Canada run at lower wireless speeds that would not interfere with landings, and that only some older planes whose technology has not been upgraded pose a risk.

“The question you have to ask yourself is, are the airlines investing in what I would call hardening the radio altimeter equipment so it no longer gets interfered with by C-band 5G?” he said in a phone interview.

“People knew this was coming. The airlines could have done something to invest in their airplanes to get the equipment in place, but they have not. We all know it’s money — airlines are kind of short on money these days.”

On Wednesday, Emirates announced it would halt flights to several U.S. cities due to “operational concerns associated with the planned deployment of 5G mobile network services in the U.S. at certain airports.” It said it would continue flights to Los Angeles, New York and Washington.

Emirates president Tim Clark pulled no punches when discussing the issue. He told CNN it was “one of the most delinquent, utterly irresponsible” situations he’d ever seen as it involved a failure by government, science and industry.

Of particular concern appears to be older Boeing 777 wide-body jetliners. Emirates only flies that model and the Airbus A380 jumbo jet — and it was among one of the most affected airlines.

Japan’s All Nippon Airways cancelled 20 flights to cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration “indicated that radio waves from the 5G wireless service may interfere with aircraft altimeters,” the carrier said. Along with Japan Airlines, it said Boeing announced restrictions on airlines flying its 777s.

Air India also announced on Twitter it would cancel flights to Chicago, Newark, New York and San Francisco because of the 5G issue. But it also said it would try to use other aircraft on U.S. routes — a course several other airlines took.

In Canada, the industry and transport departments are working with the telecom and aviation sectors “to ensure that appropriate rules are in place to protect the critical operations of radio altimeters” and minimize potential interference, Transport Canada spokeswoman Sau Sau Liu said in an email.

Transport Canada also issued a civil aviation alert on Dec. 23 offering recommendations on how to fly an airplane “in a 5G environment,” she noted.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 19, 2022.

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