The Canadian Press
Published Monday, July 18, 2022 4:01PM EDT
Last Updated Monday, July 18, 2022 4:01PM EDT
A BMO Capital Markets senior economist says the Bank of Canada’s recent move to increase its key interest rate is setting up the housing market for an even deeper correction next year.
Robert Kavcic says governor Tiff Macklem’s surprise one-percentage-point rate hike last week was like taking a hammer to the housing market.
In a note to investors, Kavcic says the increase which prompted the commercial banks to increase their prime rates has made it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage under Canada’s stress test rules.
The test sets the qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages at either two percentage points above the contract rate or 5.25 per cent, whichever is greater.
Kavcic says before the move, variable-rate borrowers were still qualifying at 5.25 per cent, but that has now shifted up to around six per cent, which he considers “a massive pill for the market to swallow.”
Fixed-rate borrowers are qualifying around seven per cent, which he says will carve into their purchasing power too.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 18, 2022.
RBC warns house price correction could be deepest in decades | CTV News – CTV News Toronto
A housing correction, which has already led to four consecutive months of price declines in the previously overheated Greater Toronto Area market, could end up becoming “one of the deepest of the past half a century,” a new report from RBC warns.
New data released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) last week revealed that the average benchmark price for a home in the GTA fell six per cent month-over-month in July to $1,074,754.
Sales were also down a staggering 47 per cent from July, 2021.
In a report published on Aug. 4, RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue said recent data from real estate boards underlines that higher interest rates are beginning to take a “huge toll” on the market.
Hogue said that with further hikes to come, prices will likely continue to slide in the coming months.
That prediction, it should be noted, goes against a report from Royal LePage last month which painted a rosier forecast for sellers in which values would more or less holding for the rest of the year following some declines in the second quarter.
“Our expectations for further hikes by the Bank of Canada—another 75 basis points to go in the overnight rate by the fall— will keep chilling the market in the months ahead,” Hogue said. “We expect the downturn to intensify and spread further as buyers take a wait-and-see approach while ascertaining the impact of higher lending rates. Canada’s least affordable markets Vancouver and Toronto, and their surrounding regions, are most at risk in light of their excessively stretched affordability and outsized price gains during the pandemic.”
The Bank of Canada has hiked the overnight lending rate by 225 basis points since March and has warned that further hikes will be necessary given that inflation remains at a near 40-year high.
In his report, Hogue pointed out that the housing correction “now runs far and wide across Canada” but he said that it is particularly pronounced in the costlier markets of Toronto and Vancouver.
In fact, Hogue said that housing resale activity in Toronto is at its slowest pace in 13 years, outside of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The stockpile of available homes is also up 58 per cent from a year ago, he noted.
“With more options to choose from and higher interest rates shrinking their purchasing budgets, buyers are able to extract meaningful price concessions from sellers,” he said, pointing out that the average price of a home in the GTA is down 13 per cent from March. “We expect buyers to remain on the defensive in the months ahead as they deal with rising interest rates and poor affordability.”
While Hogue did say that condos in the City of Toronto are likely to remain “relatively more resilient” he said that prices elsewhere will continue to fall for the time being, especially in the 905 belt “where property values soared during the pandemic.”
The July data from TRREB suggested that the average price of a home in the GTA was still up one per cent from July, 2021.
Commuters face GO transit cancellations, possible strike – CityNews
Canada Revenue Agency plans email blitz to get Canadians to cash outstanding cheques worth $1.4-billion – The Globe and Mail
The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is planning a massive e-mail notification campaign to reach Canadians across the country who have uncashed cheques worth a net $1.4-billion.
The e-mail notifications will target recipients of the Canada child benefit and related provincial and territorial programs, as well as recipients of the GST/HST credits and the Alberta Energy Tax Refund.
The CRA said it plans to send approximately 25,000 e-mails in August, another 25,000 in November and a further 25,000 e-mails by May, 2023.
However, even without receiving an e-mail notification, the agency said a taxpayer can check if they have a cheque by logging into My Account, a secure portal on its website to check if they have an uncashed cheque over a period of six months. It added that representatives can also view uncashed cheques of their clients.
Each year, the CRA said it issues millions of payments to Canadian taxpayers in the form of refund benefits. These payments are issued by either direct deposit or by cheque.
“Over time, payments can remain uncashed for various reasons, such as the taxpayer misplacing the cheque or even a change of address which did not allow for delivery,” the agency said in a statement.
The CRA said since the e-mail notification initiative was first launched in February, 2020, about two million uncashed cheques valued at $802-million were redeemed by May 31, 2022.
The average amount per uncashed cheque is $158 with some of them dating as far back as 1998, the agency said.
As of May, 2022, there were an estimated 8.9 million uncashed cheques with the CRA. In May, 2019, about five million Canadians had an estimated 7.6 million uncashed cheques.
“As government cheques never expire or stale date, the CRA cannot void the original cheque and re-issue a new one unless requested by the taxpayer,” the statement read. “These upcoming e-notifications are to encourage taxpayers to cash any cheques they have in their possession.”
The agency said taxpayers can register for the direct deposit option on its website to receive payments directly into their bank accounts.
Your time is valuable. Have the Top Business Headlines newsletter conveniently delivered to your inbox in the morning or evening. Sign up today.
Alex Jones Begs The Question, What's More Expensive For Media: Lies, Or The Truth? – Forbes
Perseid meteor shower: when to catch it in Manitoba | CTV News – CTV News Winnipeg
Stable weather allows fire crews to focus on containment of B.C. wildfires
Silver investment demand jumped 12% in 2019
Europe kicks off vaccination programs | All media content | DW | 27.12.2020 – Deutsche Welle
Global Media Markets, 2015-2020, 2020-2025F, 2030F – TV and Radio Broadcasting, Film and Music, Information Services, Web Content, Search Portals And Social Media, Print Media, & Cable – GlobeNewswire
News18 hours ago
Dawn Walker: Sask. woman facing charges in U.S., Canada – CTV News
Economy16 hours ago
Analysis | Industrials' Long Coattails Can Carry the US Economy – The Washington Post
Sports5 hours ago
What you need to know ahead of the restaged 2022 World Junior Championships – ESPN
Art24 hours ago
Celebrate Ontario art with the Apsley Autumn Studio Tour in September – kawarthaNOW.com
News9 hours ago
Beware the Darkverse and the Cyber-Physical Threats it Will Enable
Economy2 hours ago
In an Unequal Economy, the Poor Face Inflation Now and Job Loss Later – The New York Times
Tech22 hours ago
Samsung Galaxy Unpacked: How to watch Samsung announce its latest foldable phones – ZDNet
Health7 hours ago
First West Nile virus-positive mosquitoes of the year confirmed in Peel Region – CP24