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Iran-Saudi deal and China’s growing clout in Middle East

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After China successfully brokered a deal last week to restore relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing appears set to take on a larger role in the Middle East and potentially challenge US dominance in the oil-rich region.

Under the agreement reached in the Chinese capital on Friday, Riyadh and Tehran agreed to reopen their embassies and exchange ambassadors after seven years of severed diplomatic ties and tensions.

The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively the leading Shiite and Sunni Muslim powers in the Middle East, has dominated regional politics in recent years, affecting not only the two nations but also others with both sides backing rival camps in proxy wars from Yemen to Syria and elsewhere.

Beijing described the result as a “major outcome” achieved through “concerted efforts” by the three countries, emphasizing that China “pursues no selfish interest whatsoever in the Middle East.”

“China has no intention to and will not seek to fill the so-called vacuum or put up exclusive blocs,” Beijing said in a statement on Saturday, adding: “China will be a promoter of security and stability, partner for development and prosperity, and supporter of the Middle East’s development through solidarity.”

Tricky region for Chinese diplomacy

The deal is a major triumph for Chinese diplomacy, said Camille Lons, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

It also marks a shift in Beijing’s strategy as “until now, it had refused to get entangled in regional disputes, and smartly benefited from the US-led security umbrella while doing business with the entire region,” she noted.

“But by getting more involved in politics, China takes the risk of exposing its own limits.”

What are Saudi Arabia and Iran hoping to gain?

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Ian Chong, an expert on China’s foreign policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS), shared a similar view.

He pointed out that Beijing may find the Middle East to be a tricky region to operate in.

“There are lots of complicated interests and tensions so how brokering this deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia will play out remains to be seen,” he told DW.

A long presence in the Middle East

China has cultivated strong economic and political ties with both Riyadh and Tehran in recent years. Saudi Arabia is China’s largest oil supplier, with trade between the two countries amounting to $87 billion (€81 billion)  in 2021.

Commerce between Iran and China, meanwhile, was worth more than $16 billion in the same year, with Tehran depending on the Asian giant for as much as 30% of its foreign trade.

China has also pledged to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years.

Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Saudi Arabia in December for a state visit, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Beijing in February.

Chong from NUS said that by facilitating this deal, Beijing is signaling that it is now not just a leading economic player but is also willing to get involved in politics in the Middle East, a region which is the primary source of China’s energy imports.

Tuvia Gering, an expert on China-Middle East relations at the Diane and Guilford Glazer Center at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel (INSS), said Beijing hopes to carve out a bigger role for itself because the region has become “strategically important” to it.

“It’s not just for energy security, but on this wider gamut of areas,” Gering told DW, pointing to Chinese investments in regional infrastructure as part of its massive multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

The Saudi-Iran deal comes at a time when many countries in the region perceive the US as winding down its engagement there.

This doesn’t mean Beijing could replace Washington in the Middle East, said Gering.

“China said it doesn’t want to be dragged into regional conflicts, and I don’t think that wish has changed even though recent developments may have given Beijing a bit more appetite to become more active,” he underlined, adding that China still needs to gain the region’s trust before it can become a reliable partner. “China is still a new actor and these things take a long time.”

Saudi Prince: ‘Historic phase’ in China relations

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Is US influence waning?

The US, meanwhile, welcomed China’s efforts to help end the war in Yemen and deescalate tensions in the Middle East, but rejected the notion that it was stepping back from the region.

It also stressed that the agreement was two years in the making.

“This is not about China. We support any effort to deescalate tensions in the region. We think that’s in our interests, and it’s something that we worked on through our own effective combination of deterrence and diplomacy,” said White House national security spokesperson John Kirby.

John Calabrese, director of the Middle East-Asia Project at the Middle East Institute, said Beijing’s role in brokering the deal doesn’t fundamentally alter Washington’s position.

In his view, Beijing’s main goal in the region is still “maintaining its economic interests and expanding its economic equities.”

“This requires regional stability to the extent that the US is still equipped to do so,” he said, adding that de-escalation between Tehran and Riyadh is in the interest of the Middle East, China and the US.

And despite US-Saudi tensions over an array of issues — ranging from human rights violations to Riyadh’s continued participation in a pandemic-era oil pact with Russia — Saudi Arabia remains one of Washington’s staunchest security partners in the region.

Lons from IISS said the agreement shows that Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are willing to diversify their security and strategic partnerships so that they do not rely entirely on the US.

She described these countries’ approach as “pragmatic” and warned against overestimating Beijing’s importance to the region.

“When it comes to hard security guarantees, they are fully aware that the US remains their key partner.”

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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Promise tracker: What the Saskatchewan Party and NDP pledge to do if they win Oct. 28

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:

Saskatchewan Party

— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.

— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.

— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.

— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.

— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.

— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.

— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults

— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.

— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.

— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.

— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.

NDP

— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.

— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.

— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.

— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.

— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.

— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.

— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.

— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.

— Scrap the marshals service.

— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.

— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Bad weather forecast for B.C. election day as record numbers vote in advance polls

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VANCOUVER – More than a million British Columbians have already cast their provincial election ballots, smashing the advance voting record ahead of what weather forecasters say will be a rain-drenched election day in much of B.C., with snow also predicted for the north.

Elections BC said Thursday that 1,001,331 people had cast ballots in six days of advance voting, easily breaking a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.

More than 28 per cent of all registered electors have voted, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout on Saturday.

“It reflects what I believe, which is this election is critically important for the future of our province,” New Democrat Leader David Eby said Thursday at a news conference in Vancouver. “I understand why British Columbians are out in numbers. We haven’t seen questions like this on the ballot in a generation.”

He said voters are faced with the choice of supporting his party’s plans to improve affordability, public health care and education, while the B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are proposing to cut services and are fielding candidates who support conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic and espouse racist views.

Rustad held no public availabilities on Thursday.

Elections BC said the record advance vote tally includes about 223,000 people who voted on the final day of advance voting Wednesday, the last day of advance polls, shattering the one-day record set on Tuesday by more than 40,000 votes.

The previous record for advance voting in a B.C. election was set in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, when about 670,000 people voted early, representing about 19 per cent of registered voters.

Some ridings have now seen turnout of more than 35 per cent, including in NDP Leader David Eby’s Vancouver-Point Grey riding where 36.5 per cent of all electors have voted.

There has also been big turnout in some Vancouver Island ridings, including Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where 39 per cent of electors have voted, and Victoria-Beacon Hill, where Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is running, with 37.2 per cent.

Advance voter turnout in Rustad’s riding of Nechako Lakes was 30.5 per cent.

Total turnout in 2020 was 54 per cent, down from about 61 per cent in 2017.

Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said many factors are at play in the advance voter turnout.

“If you have an early option, if you have an option where there are fewer crowds, fewer lineups that you have to deal with, then that’s going to be a much more desirable option,” said Prest.

“So, having the possibility of voting across multiple advanced voting days is something that more people are looking to as a way to avoid last-minute lineups or heavy weather.”

Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.

Environment Canada said the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.

Eby said the forecast of an atmospheric weather storm on election day will become a “ballot question” for some voters who are concerned about the approaches the parties have towards addressing climate change.

But he said he is confident people will not let the storm deter them from voting.

“I know British Columbians are tough and they’re not going to let even an atmospheric river stop them from voting,” said Eby.

In northern B.C., heavy snow is in the forecast starting Friday and through to Saturday for areas along the Yukon boundary.

Elections BC said it will focus on ensuring it is prepared for bad weather, said Andrew Watson, senior director of communications.

“We’ve also been working with BC Hydro to make sure that they’re aware of all of our voting place locations so that they can respond quickly if there are any power outages,” he said.

Elections BC also has paper backups for all of its systems in case there is a power outage, forcing them to go through manual procedures, Watson said.

Prest said the dramatic downfall of the Official Opposition BC United Party just before the start of the campaign and voter frustration could also be contributing to the record size of the advance vote.

It’s too early to say if the province is experiencing a “renewed enthusiasm for voting,” he said.

“As a political scientist, I think it would be a good thing to see, but I’m not ready to conclude that’s what we are seeing just yet,” he said, adding, “this is one of the storylines to watch come Saturday.”

Overall turnout in B.C. elections has generally been dwindling compared with the 71.5 per cent turnout for the 1996 vote.

Adam Olsen, Green Party campaign chair, said the advance voting turnout indicates people are much more engaged in the campaign than they were in the weeks leading up to the start of the campaign in September.

“All we know so far is that people are excited to go out and vote early,” he said. “The real question will be does that voter turnout stay up throughout election night?”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version said more than 180,000 voters cast their votes on Wednesday.

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