Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) is an American cloud-based platform-as-a-service business that enables software developers to use digital communication such as calls, texts, and emails to enhance the user experience. After reporting blowout Q4 2020 earnings, and the stock sitting close to all-time highs, is it still a good investment?
Twilo has been one of the beneficiaries of the “shift to digital”, where companies would adapt to the internet and mobile in ways that could often take years in the past. Since COVID-19 hit, this timeline has been compressed to weeks and months and has acted as a secular tailwind for the company. This is demonstrated in a report published by Twilio last year surveying over 2,500 companies which found that 97% of companies found that the pandemic sped up this acceleration. Furthermore, companies’ digital acceleration strategy was accelerated by an average of six years. This acceleration has benefitted Twilio to date but looks set to continue in the coming years.
Twilio reported $548.1 million in revenue, an increase of 65% year-over-year, and full-year revenue growth of 55% to $1.76 billion in Q4 2020. It has a diversified revenue base with 27% of sales generated outside of North America and spread across different business types and sizes.
Whether you are aware of it or not, you have likely come across Twilio’s software in everyday life, whether to verify your number via Whatsapp or getting messages from Lyft or Airbnb. Along with several high-profile customers, Twilio reported 221,000 active customer accounts as of December 2020, compared to 179,000 a year prior. Twilio has suffered from losing the business of large customers, such as Uber, which accounted for roughly 12% of revenue. However, despite a short-term fall in the stock price, Twilio continued to grow revenue and decrease its customer concentration levels. Today, its top 10 customers account for 13% of revenue, a 1% decrease YoY. The stickiness of its business and increasing spend by customers is demonstrated in its dollar-based net expansion of 139% in Q4.
A passionate founding CEO is also a positive indicator. Twilio head, Jeff Lawson, has an impressive 95% approval rating on Glassdoor and still owns a large stake in the company. Twilio also has one of the most diverse leadership teams of any publicly-traded company, with women making up 6 out of 13 of its upper management.
Finally, Twilio has acquired SendGrid and Segment over the past 3 years, and while a strategy of growth by acquisition can be risky, it has demonstrated its ability to do so successfully.
Bear Case
Twilio’s valuation may be a cause for concern for investors as it is currently trading at roughly 37x price-to-sales ratio. This high multiple will mean that management will need to continue to execute on its forecasts. Twilio is also not the only player in the space, with Microsoft’s Azure Communication Services providing stiff competition.
Twilio is also still unprofitable despite a great year of revenue growth, reporting a net loss of $490.9 million in fiscal 2020 compared to $307 million a year prior. On an adjusted basis, this loss is lessened due to excluding items such as stock-based compensation. Nevertheless, it is clear that Twilio has some way to go.
Twilio’s gross margins are not as high as other SaaS companies either, coming in at 56% for Q4, a slight decrease YoY. Although management expects 60-65% margins over the long term, this is yet to materialize, and investors should keep an eye on it.
So, Should I Buy Twilio Stock?
Twilio is well-positioned to benefit from a shift to digital during COVID-19 and in a post-pandemic world and the visionary Jeff Lawson at the helm. Twilio has the numbers to back it up and could be a great addition to a portfolio. The stock is likely to be volatile due to the run-up in recent times, but investors should take advantage of any weakness in the stock as it is likely to continue to keep performing.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”
Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.
Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.
Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.
In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.
The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
