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It’s Time For A Technical Oil Trade

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Regular readers will know, as will anyone that has ever attended one of my instructional courses, that I very rarely arrive at a trade idea just by looking at a chart. Rather, I prefer to arrive at an idea in a “top down” style, starting with a big picture view of the global economy, then deciding which energy commodity or stocks will be most impacted. Only then do I look at charts, to find things that are poised to break out of a pattern and to find logical exit points for the position I am looking to put on.

Sometimes, though, even a market that is really about fundamentals is in balance, and then technical levels and patterns take on much greater importance. That is the case right now with crude. A look at the chart for WTI futures (CL) below shows a narrowing wedge, which indicates the kind of balance I am talking about, but a simple Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the next move of a couple of dollars or so in price will be quite significant.

There are two ways of looking at the waves marked by the gold arrows.

The first is that we are just entering wave three of a large bearish pattern. If that is the case, then we can expect oil to head significantly lower over the next few weeks as that wave develops and crude drops below the channel support at around $72. If, on the other hand, you treat the first gold arrow as just a range-setting move, then we are currently in the second, correctional wave of a new bullish pattern. If that…

Regular readers will know, as will anyone that has ever attended one of my instructional courses, that I very rarely arrive at a trade idea just by looking at a chart. Rather, I prefer to arrive at an idea in a “top down” style, starting with a big picture view of the global economy, then deciding which energy commodity or stocks will be most impacted. Only then do I look at charts, to find things that are poised to break out of a pattern and to find logical exit points for the position I am looking to put on.

Sometimes, though, even a market that is really about fundamentals is in balance, and then technical levels and patterns take on much greater importance. That is the case right now with crude. A look at the chart for WTI futures (CL) below shows a narrowing wedge, which indicates the kind of balance I am talking about, but a simple Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the next move of a couple of dollars or so in price will be quite significant.

Gold

There are two ways of looking at the waves marked by the gold arrows.

The first is that we are just entering wave three of a large bearish pattern. If that is the case, then we can expect oil to head significantly lower over the next few weeks as that wave develops and crude drops below the channel support at around $72. If, on the other hand, you treat the first gold arrow as just a range-setting move, then we are currently in the second, correctional wave of a new bullish pattern. If that is the case, then we will turn higher again soon and break through the resistance at around $82.

The levels to watch are marked by the white horizontal lines added to the second view of the chart, at $80.62, the high from February 13th, and $76.52, the low from February 9th.

Levels

A break of either of those levels will prompt me to trade with the momentum, short on a break of the support or long should we move above the resistance. Those levels will decide if we are in a bearish or bullish pattern, but until then, any directional trade would be the result of just guesswork.

This is a trade signal and style that is almost the opposite of what I usually prefer in several ways. Not only do I rarely trade base a trade solely on the chart as I mentioned, but I also tend to favor a contrarian style over momentum. This, though, is different.

Crude is stuck in a rut for a reason. Supply is still quite tight given OPEC policy and the continued Russian war in Ukraine, but seems to be in balance with current demand. However, there are questions about maintaining the current level of demand for oil. Central banks around the world are trying to slow growth to combat inflation, but there is always a danger that they will be too successful in that and will force major economies, and therefore the world, into a painful recession. So, the next fundamental move will be dictated by something that nobody has yet been able to figure out, how much pain developed economies will be able to bear.

So, the market is waiting for a signal from itself as to where the next big move will take us, and when enough people are focused on a level, or two in this case, a break of it can cause a quite sharp follow-on move. That could come in either direction here, and which direction it is will probably depend on traders’ opinions formed on economic data. I don’t want to guess whether that will be positive or negative at this point, so I am content to sit on my hands and wait for a move either above $80.62 or below $76.52 before joining in, then just going with the flow.

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Job Search Success Is Not Complicated

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News Media Canada

Most people over-complicate the process of achieving success.

Achieving success is often perceived as a complex puzzle, or according to those who play the ‘I’m a victim!’ card, only available to those who are supposedly privileged. The fact is there’s a simple equation for achieving success, which Zig Ziglar famously encapsulated, “You can have everything in life you want if you will just help other people get what they want.”

Side note: “all you want” should be interpreted as “all you need.”

I recommend considering the hiring process from the employer’s perspective. By doing so, you’ll empathize with employers and understand positioning yourself as a candidate who has the skills, experience, and proven track record of helping employers get what they want is a job search strategy that’ll set you apart from your competition, who aren’t approaching their job search with an “I want to help employers” mindset as they have the all-too-common “I want!” mindset.

Success isn’t a complicated journey. With the right mindset, it’s a simple path—help others achieve what they want. However, the mindset I come across most often is the exact opposite; job seekers focused on what they want, as opposed to what employers want, resulting in employers being turned off. Who isn’t turned off by someone solely concerned with their needs and wants, who comes across as “predatory”?

Most job seekers: “Employers need to understand my issues and needs.”

Savvy job seekers: “I need to understand the employer’s issues and needs.”

Job seekers who have their thinking clean and show employers how they can help them achieve what they want are few and far between. Being that rare candidate makes you unique and highly valuable, which is a significant competitive advantage. I can guarantee that your interviewer almost never encounters a candidate who projects an “I’m here to help you” aura.

When viewed holistically, employers want five things:

  • be profitable
  • reduce/control costs
  • have low employee turnover
  • optimize employee performance
  • provide a customer experience that’s evangelized

 

How can you help an employer achieve any of, or a combination of, the above?

What’s your employee value proposition?

For instance, you can never go wrong assuming the employer wants to be profitable; hence, suggesting cost-saving measures or revenue-generating ideas during your interview will demonstrate your desire to help the company get what it wants, which is to be profitable.

Imagine yourself as a hiring manager. One of your standard interview questions is: “How will you contribute to the company’s success?” or, more directly, “Why should I hire you?”

 

Candidate A:

 

“If hired, I will bring enthusiasm, dedication, and hard work to the team. I am a fast learner and have a strong work ethic. I am also a team player.”

 

Candidate B:

 

“I bring over 15 years of technical expertise, problem-solving skills, and a commitment to innovation. As head of Gekko’s IT, I led a project to streamline its data analysis processes, increasing efficiency by 20% and reducing employee hours. I achieved this by implementing Cyberdyne Systems’ latest data visualization tools and automating repetitive tasks. I plan to bring this kind of efficiency oversight to Soylent Corporation.”

 

Which candidate would you lean towards hiring?

 

Candidate A offers nothing more than their unsubstantiated opinions, which, as I’ve stated in previous columns, employers don’t hire; they hire results. Opinions about yourself, which you should rarely give without quantifying, don’t help your interviewer envision how you’ll help the company get what it wants.

 

On the other hand, candidate B outlined how they can help the company achieve wanting to optimize employee performance and cost savings. Candidate B thinks like an employer and understands employers are a sucker for candidates with a track record of helping employers get what they want.

 

Getting hired doesn’t come down to having the shiniest resume, with all the right keywords, being impeccably dressed, having a perfect smile, or sheer luck. Employers hire candidates they feel will get them what they want.

 

Consider all the successes around you and why they exist.

 

  • Amazon: Shopping delivered to your door.
  • Apple iPhone: Handheld communication.
  • Facebook: Having a voice. Keeping in touch.
  • Starbucks: Coffee served around an experience.
  • Taylor Swift: Music young people in angst can relate to.
  • MasterCard: Easy to use credit.
  • Zig Ziglar: Motivation and encouragement.

 

The success of the above can be attributed to the fact that they’ve designed their offering with the end-user in mind, helping people get what they want.

 

  • Amazon: Convenience
  • Apple iPhone: Connectivity
  • Facebook: Popularity
  • Starbucks: Self-care
  • Taylor Swift: Understanding
  • MasterCard: Lifestyle
  • Zig Ziglar: Hope

 

All successful businesses are based on selling a product or service that’ll help people (read: consumers) get what they want, which is usually intrinsic. A product or service must satisfy a need or want in order to sell. The same applies to job searching. You must fulfill an employer’s need or want. Think of employers as the end users of your services; how do you help employers achieve what they want? Are you communicating your how and willingness to help throughout your job search?

Showing how you can help employers get what they want is how you achieve job search success.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Mergers and acquisitions to pick up in 2025 as conditions ease: KPMG

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KPMG says nine in 10 Canadian CEOs are considering making an acquisition within the next three years to help boost their company’s growth.

A pair of surveys by the firm released Monday show four in 10 Canadian CEOs are planning major deals, while nearly three quarters of small- and medium-sized businesses are considering acquisitions.

KPMG says Canadian chief executives see mergers and acquisitions as their second-most important growth strategy in the next three years, behind organic growth.

Meanwhile, smaller businesses rely less on these deals as a top growth strategy, but many are still planning to make acquisitions in the coming years, and four per cent are seeking to be acquired.

John Cho, national leader for KPMG in Canada’s deal advisory practice, says recent interest rate cuts by Canadian and U.S. central banks, plus lower inflation, are “breathing life” back into the merger and acquisition market.

He says with more confidence in the air, 2025 could be one of the busiest years in quite some time for mergers and acquisitions.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 7, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Coeur Mining signs all-stock deal to buy SilverCrest Metals valued at US$1.7B

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VANCOUVER – Coeur Mining Inc. has signed a deal to buy SilverCrest Metals Inc. that values the company at about US$1.7 billion.

Under the agreement, SilverCrest shareholders will receive 1.6022 Coeur common shares for each SilverCrest common share they hold.

The proposal values SilverCrest shares at US$11.34 per share, based on the closing price of Coeur common shares on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. The offer is a 22 per cent premium to where SilverCrest shares closed before the deal was announced.

Vancouver-based SilverCrest owns the Las Chispas operation in Sonora, Mexico.

Coeur shareholders will hold a 63 per cent stake in the combined company, while SilverCrest shareholders will own 37 per cent.

The deal, which requires shareholder, court and regulatory approvals, is expected to close late in the first quarter of 2025.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SIL)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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