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Japan government expects economy to return to pre-COVID levels by year-end – Financial Post

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TOKYO — Japan’s economy is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year, helped by solid exports as well as consumer spending supported by progress in vaccinations, the government said in revised estimates released on Tuesday.

In a mid-year review, the government now forecasts that during the fiscal year to end-March, the economy will expand 3.7% and at some point real gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed the 547 trillion yen ($4.9 trillion) marked in October-December 2019.

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“Japan’s recovery will be moderate in the first half of this fiscal year but accelerate in the latter half due to steady gains in exports and capital expenditure,” the government said, adding there would also be a pickup in services spending.

The forecasts appear to show a weaker expansion than the government’s January estimate of 4.0% growth for this fiscal year. But that is largely due to a smaller-than-expected 4.6% contraction for the economy in fiscal 2020.

Growth for the next fiscal year is expected to slow to 2.2% as the pace of exports moderates. But robust domestic demand will lift GDP to a record 558 trillion yen, according to the projections which serve as a basis for policy-making and crafting the state budget.

The forecasts follow a central bank report on Monday that painted a cautiously upbeat view on regional economies in a sign policymakers prefer to hold off on ramping up monetary or fiscal stimulus measures any time soon.

The world’s third-largest economy is currently lagging the United States, Britain and many European countries in vaccinations. Rising infection numbers have forced Japan to maintain “quasi” state of emergency curbs weeks before the Tokyo Olympic Games begin on July 23. ($1 = 110.8800 yen) (Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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