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Likely Tokyo Emergency Adds to Fears Economy Will Shrink Again – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s heavy hint that he will declare an emergency in the area around Tokyo later this week has deepened fears that Japan’s economy will shrink again even with the support of a recent $700 billion stimulus package.

Bloomberg Economics’ Yuki Masujima sees a Tokyo emergency declaration shaving up to 0.7% off the economy for each month it lasts.

Gross domestic product could contract by 5% on an annualized basis in the three months through March and by 10% if the declaration is made nationwide, according to Ryutaro Kono, chief Japan economist at BNP Paribas, writing in a report Monday.

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The looming decision will set back Suga’s hopes of stoking growth with his recent stimulus measures and restarting travel subsidies criticized for contributing to the uptick in infections.

“Japan is off to a dire start this year,” said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at the Itochu Research. “Tokyo and surrounding areas account for a big chunk of the whole economy and this will also cool sentiment and economic activity throughout the nation.”

The prime minister’s warning of action to limit activity mainly at restaurants and bars and a possible emergency declaration comes amid record virus cases in the capital in recent days. Eating and drinking establishments are seen as one of the key locations for the recent spread of infections.

While the action is likely to be less stringent than a nationwide emergency called in April, economists say the likelihood of the economy shrinking this quarter has clearly increased.

Tokyo and its surrounding prefectures account for about a third of Japan’s economic output and would rank as the world’s ninth largest economy based on a breakdown of the Cabinet Office’s regional data from 2017.

The capital logged another 884 cases on Monday, down from more than 1,300 on New Year’s Eve, but still at a relatively high level for Japan. Suga said he will consult with an advisory panel to finalize plans on a possible emergency declaration covering Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“Another state of emergency would put substantial pressure on the economy, which was showing a loss of momentum in 4Q 2020, and disrupt government efforts to support demand.”

— Yuki Masujima, economist

To read the full report, click here.

Analysts said any contraction would be smaller than last year’s record 29.2% annualized slide in the second quarter. That’s because the declaration won’t bring full scale business closures like it did last year, according to Masamichi Adachi, economist at UBS Securities.

“This would be different from the previous declaration,” said Adachi. “Still, the psychological impact is hard to measure. What is clear is that Japan’s recovery is now going to be even more underwhelming than other developed nations.”

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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