Politics
LILLEY: Playing politics with the 'R-word' as Canada's economy sputters – Toronto Sun


They weren’t the numbers the Liberals would have been hoping for.
After disappointing job numbers earlier this month and a drop in retails sales announced last week, Statistics Canada reported a slowing construction sector and a drop in GDP on Monday.
It’s the latest in a series of economic indicators from StatsCan showing Canada’s economy is starting to sputter.
The news will boost the call from the Conservatives that we could be headed towards a made-in-Canada recession.
That’s a claim Finance Minister Bill Morneau has called “irresponsible,” even as the numbers are headed in the wrong direction.
Overall GDP declined 0.1% in October, not a big dip by any means but when added to the delines in key economic sectors it’s a worrying figure. Stats Can also reported a 0.5% decline in construction investment on Monday.
Other key indicators in decline include wholesale sales down 1.1%, manufacturing sales down 0.7% and of course unemployment increased last month with 71,000 jobs disappearing.
The Conservatives raised the prospect of a recession in response to the Liberal fiscal update last week.
The update projected that Canada’s economy would grow in 2020 though at a slower rate than this year.
“What we are facing now is the prospect of a made in Canada recession,” Conservative Finance Critic Pierre Poilievre said last week.
Poilievre said he doesn’t think Canada is in a recession yet but worries the Liberals could exacerbate one if the economy slows.
“I think it’s a little bit irresponsible of the Conservatives to be making people more anxious,” Morneau told CTV’s political show Question Period.
“We need to play our hand cautiously, but I see the economy as strong and I see it as growing.”
It’s a bit rich for the Liberals to be calling out the Conservatives on raising the spectre of a recession when Justin Trudeau’s mandate letter to Morneau does that very thing.
“Preserve fiscal firepower in the event that we need to respond to an economic downturn,” Trudeau instructs Morneau in the letter.
Well that’s not something Morneau did, the fiscal update showed a projected deficit for this year of $26.6 billion compared to the $19.8 billion they predicted in the budget.
Next year’s deficit will be even higher at $28.1 billion.
If that is the kind of spending the Liberals are willing to do in what they consider good times, how much will they be spending if there is a downturn? Or to Trudeau’s point, will we have the ‘fiscal firepower” left to respond?
Trudeau was elected in 2015 on a promise of three small deficits of $10 billion a year before returning the country’s books to balance. Of course he never hit those targets, the deficits were two and three times higher and the return to balance never happened.
In October’s election Trudeau promised even bigger deficits, an extra $94 billion of deficit spending over his second mandate and he was still returned to power.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that trade tensions will slow global growth over the next year or so, a move that if true would have a bigger impact on Canada than most other countries that are less export dependent.
Are the Conservatives playing politics by raising the spectre of a recession? Absolutely, but so are the Liberals in criticizing them for doing so. Even the PM knows we need to be prepared.
Recessions come in regular cycles and we could very much be due for one in 2020, the big question is whether we will be prepared when it comes.
Politics
Senate passes Democrats' sweeping health care and climate bill – CNN


(CNN)The Senate on Sunday afternoon passed Democrats’ $750 billion health care, tax and climate bill, in a significant victory for President Joe Biden and his party.
How Senate Democrats passed the bill on a party-line vote
How the bill addresses the climate crisis
Key health care and tax policy in the bill
Politics
Opinion: What started in Kansas upends American politics – CNN
Sign up to get this weekly column as a newsletter. We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets.
(CNN)In “The Wizard of Oz,” a tornado sends Dorothy and her Kansas home spinning into the “Merry Old Land of Oz.” Last week it was what Politico called a “political earthquake” in Kansas that sent the national debate over abortion into a new phase with many unknowns.
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Politics
Tory leadership hopefuls say it’s time for unity. Here’s what some say that means


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OTTAWA — When three Conservative leadership hopefuls met this past week for a debate, the same word kept getting repeated.
Unity. Or more precisely, the need for it.
In a contest largely seen as a battle for the party’s soul, which has put decades-old fissures on display between groups that make up its very coalition, what might it take to achieve unity after results are revealed Sept. 10?
As that question lingers, many in the party and beyond are preparing for a scenario in which Pierre Poilievre takes victory.
Much of that thinking is based on the longtime MP’s popularity with the existing grassroots, coupled with his ability to draw big crowds and sell what his campaign claims to have been more than 300,000 memberships.
But after winning comes the challenge of leading.
“Somebody has to give some thought to the morning after,” said Garry Keller, former chief of staff to Rona Ambrose, who served as the party’s interim leader after it lost government in 2015.
Of the 118 other members in caucus, a whopping 62 endorsed Poilievre. That’s compared to the party’s 2020 leadership race when the caucus was more evenly split between Peter MacKay and the eventual winner, Erin O’Toole.
O’Toole’s inability to manage caucus after losing the 2021 election to the Liberals ultimately led to his downfall. He was forced out by a vote from his MPs under provisions in the Reform Act, measures which will remain in place for the next leader.
Poilievre has said his campaign message of “freedom” serves as a great unifier among Conservatives. However, Keller said if some in caucus are taking that to mean they will be able to say whatever they want on social media, they shouldn’t.
“I think people will be solely disabused of that notion.”
Poilievre and his supporters have throughout the race been accused of sowing disunity in the party by instigating personal attacks against rivals, namely ex-Quebec premier Jean Charest.
Most recently, MPs endorsing Poilievre — along with Scott Aitchison, a rural Ontario representative and fellow leadership competitor — have called into question whether Charest, who has spent the past 20 years out of federal politics, plans to stick around the party after the race is over.
Longtime British Columbia MP Ed Fast, a co-chair on Charest’s campaign, tweeted “the purity tests must stop” and cautioned party members that when Conservatives are divided, Liberals win.
Fast himself resigned from his role as finance critic after criticizing Poilievre’s vow to fire the Bank of Canada governor, which ruffled some feathers inside caucus.
“It’s a sad situation that Jean Charest, a patriot and champion of Canadian unity, continues to have his loyalty questioned by party members looking to stoke division,” said Michelle Coates Mather, a spokeswoman for his campaign.
“What’s the endgame here exactly? Lose the next federal election by alienating Conservative members who support Charest? Seems a poor strategy for a party looking to expand their base and win a federal election.”
While Poilievre enjoys the majority support of the party’s caucus, most of the party’s 10 Quebec MPs are backing Charest, opening the question of what happens next if he is not successful.
Asked recently about that possibility, MP Alain Rayes, who is organizing on Charest’s campaign, expressed confidence in the former Quebec premier’s chances, saying the party doesn’t need “American-style divisive politics.”
“I’m deeply convinced that our members will make the right choice,” he said in a statement.
The group Centre Ice Conservatives, a centre-right advocacy group formed during the leadership race, contends the party has room to grow if it leaves the fringes and concentrates on issues that matter in the mainstream.
Director Michael Stuart says both Charest and Poilievre have policies that speak to the centrists, and what they’re hearing from supporters of their group is a desire for more focus on “dinner table issues,” such as economic growth and jobs.
“There’s a lot of distraction with noise around vaccines and the convoy and those sorts of things.”
Not only did Poilievre support the “Freedom Convoy,” he used his message of “freedom” to campaign on the anger and frustration people felt because of government-imposed COVID-19 rules, like vaccine and mask mandates.
How he will handle social conservatives also remains an open question.
Poilievre has pledged no government led by him would introduce or pass legislation restricting abortion access.
Jack Fonseca, director of political operations for the anti-abortion group Campaign Life Coalition, said many of those who strongly oppose vaccine mandates also share values with social conservatives.
“They are largely pro-freedom, pro-family, and yes, even pro-life and pro-faith,” he said.
Social conservatives have traditionally been a well-mobilized part of the party’s base during leadership contests and helped deliver wins for O’Toole and former leader Andrew Scheer, who is now helping Poilievre in the race.
While Fonseca and other anti-abortion groups are encouraging members to pick social conservative candidate Leslyn Lewis as their first choice, he said the “freedom conservatives” Poilievre recruited will expect results.
That includes giving Lewis a critic role, he said.
“He will be forced to face that reality and to deliver policy commitments to the freedom conservatives and social conservatives that are his base.”
“If it doesn’t, the peril is you become a flip-flopper like Erin O’Toole,” he said, referring to walk-backs the former leader made on promises after winning the leadership.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 7, 2022.
Stephanie Taylor, The Canadian Press
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