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Make Aurora Cannabis Front and Center in Your Pot-folio

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There’s no point trying to pretend otherwise: 2019 was a disappointing year for Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) and other marijuana stocks. The first three months were pretty good, but after that it was a painful, relentless downhill ride.

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Much of the decline was due to the over-advertised Cannabis 2.0 (the legalization of derivative products like edibles, beverages and vaping concentrates), which was priced into the market too quickly. There was no way that Aurora and its ilk could possibly live up to the hype. Thank goodness that the year’s over and done with, but what lies ahead for Aurora and its investors?

The Harshest Price Target Ever?

There are haters, and then there are haters. I’m talking about absolute rancor, which is what it would take for a respected analyst to put his reputation on the line and give a well-known pot stock a price target of zero.

That’s not a misprint. GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson gave Aurora a “sell” rating, though he’s certainly not the only analyst to do that. Then he proceeded to declare that “ACB’s equity holds no value” and assigned it an unheard-of $0 two-year price target.

That’s an audacious move on Johnson’s part. Is it an attention-getting ploy? Does he have a blood feud with Aurora CEO Terry Booth? We can have fun and speculate on these matters, but there’s a serious problem here. Someone might take Johnson’s prediction too seriously and initiate a massive short position in ACB stock.

I, for one, don’t recommend doing that. I’m not saying that Johnson told anyone to do that, but the possibility of a 2020 cannabis comeback is very real. I tend to believe that a fundamental mistake is being made here. Just because a stock has gone down 50% doesn’t mean that it’s literally going to zero.

Moving Against the Crowd

My greatest investing successes have come from doing the complete opposite of what the majority of investors are doing — and oftentimes ignoring what the analysts are predicting. Year-over-year, Aurora’s net revenues increased by a whopping 153.6% according to the company’s most recent earnings release, but investors and analysts mostly chose to ignore that fact and beat up on Aurora anyway.

But why? It’s simple. The actual quarterly net revenues of 75.2 million CAD somehow weren’t impressive enough, as the analyst consensus estimate was an eye-popping 94.2 million CAD. That estimate would have implied a year-over-year increase of 217.6% — lofty expectations, to say the least.

Aurora’s net cannabis revenues also improved considerably year-over-year with a 187.8% increase. Not only that, but Aurora’s gross margin on net cannabis revenues was predicted to come to 53.2% but actually came in at 58%. Sometimes analysts just get it wrong, and it’s easy for them to blame the company rather than accept responsibility for their predictions.

I also feel that investors don’t fully appreciate the future impact of the SAFE Act, which if passed would end America’s long-standing restrictions on banks seeking to provide financial services to cannabis companies (in states where cannabis is legal). The SAFE Act has already passed the House of Representatives, and if it passes the Senate, the entire cannabis sector should celebrate with higher stock prices — including Aurora Cannabis.

My Takeaway on Aurora Cannabis

This past year didn’t exactly go as planned, but that’s not sufficient reason to discount Aurora’s potential. If someone wants to give the stock a price target of zero, that’s fine with me; I’ll stick to my thesis that the stock will, in time, go from zero to hero.

As of this writing, David Moadel did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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