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Published Wednesday, April 17, 2024 9:50PM EDT

Last Updated Wednesday, April 17, 2024 11:10PM EDT

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“It’s a team that’s showed us a lot and I think we’ll spend the summer trying to figure out if we can move that forward,” Jeff Gorton says.

Author of the article:

Stu Cowan  •  Montreal Gazette

Published Apr 17, 2024  •  Last updated 6 hours ago  •  4 minute read

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Road to the Cup

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Boston Bruins: 2^nd in Atlantic Division, 109 points

Toronto Maple Leafs: 3^rd in Atlantic Division, 102 points*

* – with one game remaining

Schedule

To be announced

The Skinny

It’s 2013. It’s 2018. It’s 2019. It’s 2024. The Toronto Maple Leafs are the underdog against the rugged, experienced Boston Bruins. We’re watching the same movie over and over. At least, that was the lazy narrative some social media posters instantly slapped on this series the moment it was made official. In reality, these teams still possess some of their old characteristics but have also changed significantly since they last met five years ago.

The Big, Bad Bruins are still one of the top teams in the NHL. They have a seasoned, Stanley Cup winning leader in Brad Marchand, a borderline generational goal-scoring talent in David Pastrnak and a workhorse No. 1 blueliner in Charlie McAvoy. It’s no longer Tuukka Rask between the pipes, but the Bruins remain founded on elite goaltending between Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. They’re still a feisty group of warriors, ranking among the most penalized teams in the league. Aside from that, though? Things get weird. No more Patrice Bergeron or Zdeno Chara or David Krejci. They have eight players remaining from the group that eliminated the Leafs in Round 1 of the playoffs and made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in 2019. They’re no longer an elite defensive club.

In many ways, the Toronto Maple Leafs carry the same traits they did during Kyle Dubas’ years as GM. They typically win by blowing teams off the scoreboard, riding a league-leading goal total from Auston Matthews and star-caliber supporting cast including Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. But the team’s identity has undoubtedly changed entering its first postseason with Brad Treliving as GM. He committed to injecting the team with “snot” last summer, and this version of the Leafs carried itself with a newfound belligerence in 2023-24. After struggling to crack the lineup at times early on, enforcer Ryan Reaves found his place as an intimidator. Treliving has constructed a heavy D-corps, adding Simon Benoit, Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson to the fray. Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi brought jam to the forward group. This Leaf team ranks second in the NHL in hits per game and ninth in penalty minutes per game.

The personality shift did come at a cost, however. After playing lockdown defense in the previous few seasons, these Leafs are a leakier unit with a suspect penalty kill. So the question is: are these tougher, sloppier Leafs better built to win in the playoffs? Or will they flame out running into a Bruins team that can match their grit and get into their heads?

Are we about to witness something we’ve seen before, or have these two teams changed enough to deliver something unpredictable?

Head to Head

Boston: 4-0-0
Toronto: 0-2-2

Boston went perfect against the Leafs in 2023-24, but it wasn’t exactly a non-stop parade of beatdowns. One of the wins came in a shootout and another in overtime, and the Leafs actually controlled the shot attempt share at 5-on-5 in three of the four matchups. The first two meetings were the one-goal nail biters, whereas the final two meetings, coming three days apart in March, were all-Boston, with the Bruins converting three power-play goals across two 4-1 victories. Marchand was a consistent thorn in Toronto’s side. In the first matchup, he caught defenseman Timothy Liljegren with a hit that left him with a high ankle sprain and sidelined him more than a month. Marchand scored the overtime winner in the second matchup to boot.

Top Five Scorers

Boston

David Pastrnak, 110 points
Brad Marchand, 67 points
Charlie Coyle, 60 points
Pavel Zacha, 59 points
Charlie McAvoy, 47 points

Toronto*

Auston Matthews, 107 points
William Nylander, 97 points
Mitch Marner, 85 points
John Tavares, 64 points
Morgan Rielly, 58 points

* – With one game remaining

X-Factor

If you exclude Milan Lucic, who hasn’t played since October and entered the player assistance program in November, the Bruins have one active player remaining from their 2010-11 championship team: Marchand, who was named captain for this season following Bergeron’s retirement. Marchand was present for the 2013, 2018 and 2019 Bruins victories over the Leafs, each of which involved memorable collapses. Toronto blew a 4-1 lead in Game 7 of the 2013 series; carried a lead into the third period of Game 7 in the 2018 series; and blew a lead in Game 6 of the 2019 clash while up 3-2 in the series. Marchand, more than any other current Bruin, lives in Toronto’s nightmares. In 21 postseason games against the Leafs, he has seven goals and 21 points, including a pair of game-winning goals.

Marchand is an incredibly skilled player at both ends of the ice and a future Hall of Famer, but he’s also nearly peerless as an agitator and is the most suspended player in NHL history. He can turn the emotional tide of a series. When he injured Liljegren earlier this season, the discourse for the teams’ next meeting revolved around whether Toronto would go after Marchand for revenge.

Among 592 forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, Marchand ranks third in penalties drawn per 60 minutes. Considering how much the Leafs struggle to kill penalties, they can’t let Marchand bait them into the sin bin.

Offense

When your offseason exodus includes Bergeron, Krejci, Bertuzzi, Taylor Hall, Dmitry Orlov and more, and you patch up that group with the likes of James van Riemsdyk, Conor Geekie and Kevin Shattenkirk, there’s little hope of breaking even. The 2023-24 Bruins were never going to be the 2022-23 Bruins, who set an NHL record with 65 regular-season wins. They iced the NHL’s No. 2 scoring offense last season. This season, their offense has tumbled to 14^th. No more Bergeron means Boston just hasn’t had the puck as much and has become far less threatening at 5-on-5. Last season, they had the ninth-most expected goals in the NHL. They sit 15^th this time around.

Most prognosticators expected GM Don Sweeney to go out and find a scoring-line center at some point this season, but the Bruins rolled with Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle all year instead. To their credit, both guys delivered career years while playing one line higher in the lineup than they probably should have. The Bruins’ role players each took turns delivering in spurts, from Geekie to Trent Frederic to current first-line left winger Danton Heinen, and the Bruins had eight players score 17 or more goals. They are somewhat short on top-end skill, however. Pastrnak outscored his closest teammate by 43 points and was the only Bruin to top 30 goals this season.

Boston’s power play ranked 12^th a year ago and has actually held strong this season at 13^th. Hey, when you can still trot Pastrnak and his peerless one-timer out there, you’re fine.

On the surface, much of what the Leafs do offensively is familiar. Matthews’ 69 goals this season were the most of any player in 28 years. He can score with his electric wrist shot, on the power play with his pinpoint one timer, in tight with his excellent hand-eye coordination and positioning…he’s a constant threat because he can beat you in so many ways. The Leafs got a career year from Nylander, continued playmaking excellence from Marner when he was healthy, and the result was what we’re used to; the Leafs have the league’s No. 2 offense and No. 7 power play. In 5-on-5 play, they’re top 10 in most offensive play-driving metrics, including third in high-danger chances per 60.

While the Leafs will always carry a reputation of being top heavy because of their Core Four forwards, their depth is underrated. They boast five 20-goal scorers and seven players with 15 or more goals. They discovered a new dimension down the stretch when Marner missed a month with a high-ankle sprain. Bertuzzi and Domi played their best hockey of the year when placed on Matthews’ wings. Bertuzzi has scored at 38-goal pace since the All-Star break. Assuming Domi is healthy by Game 1, coach Sheldon Keefe will have the option of spreading Matthews and Marner across different lines. A second line of Nylander, Tavares and Marner would be a first line on most NHL teams.

Defense

For what feels like an eternity, the Bruins have been the gold standard for team defense, regularly ranking at or near the top of the league at preventing goals, scoring chances and high-danger chances. That what’s happens when the greatest defensive forward of all-time gives you 19 seasons and six Selke Trophies. The Bruins simply don’t control the play as well without him. They rank a shocking 19^th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals against this season, an unheard of number for them.

The Bruins, also feeling the void left by Krejci and Garnet Hathaway up front and Orlov on the blueline, grade out in the bottom half of the NHL at suppressing shots, scoring chances and high-danger chances this season. They still have one of the league’s best all-round blueliners to chew minutes in McAvoy, but coach Jim Montgomery has divided him and Hampus Lindholm for much of this season, playing McAvoy with Matt Grzelcyk and Lindholm with Brandon Carlo. The dropoff after those four is fairly significant. Does Montgomery go for a super pair of McAvoy and Lindholm to handle the Matthews line? If so, Carlo would have a lot of heavy lifting to do against the Nylander unit.

The Leafs had largely figured out their regular-season defensive game under Keefe in the previous few years, cracking the top 10 in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 in 2021-22 and 2022-23, icing a top-12 penalty kill both years to boot. But it didn’t carry over to the postseason, when their grittier opponents physically overwhelmed them. Toronto controlled below 45 percent of the 5-on-5 scoring chances in seven of its 11 playoff games between series with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers last spring.

Treliving has, in theory, built a group better prepared to stand its ground against the rough and tumble Bruins between the aforementioned Benoit, Lyubushkin and Edmundson, plus Jake McCabe, while even Morgan Rielly and Mark Giordano have proven willing to engage physically when called upon. Toronto also has a ton of depth, boasting nine NHL-caliber options from Keefe to choose from. Keep in mind that Keefe rolled with seven blueliners and 11 forwards more than once during the 2022-23 playoffs.

But has the philosophical change actually worked? The Leafs regressed defensively this season overall, grading out closer to the middle of the pack in most 5-on-5 metrics and in the bottom half of the league in preventing scoring chances. They have the second-worst penalty kill of any team to qualify for the 2023-24 playoffs at 76.9 percent, which is their lowest efficiency rate in 14 years. The tradeoff of their nine-man “defense by committee” is that they don’t have a go-to, wipeout shutdown pair to smother opposing teams’ best players.

Goaltending

If you’re pinpointing the biggest mismatch of the series, in favor of either team, it’s right here.

The Bruins have had two of the best goalies in the sport for multiple seasons now between reigning Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Among 61 goalies who played 1,000 or more minutes at 5-on-5 this season, they sit fifth and sixth in goals saved above average per 60. Swayman was particularly great in the first half, while Ullmark gathered steam after the All-Star break. Does Ullmark therefore have the inside track to start Game 1? Maybe, but Montgomery has maintained a poker face about it for now. He may rotate them. Ullmark in particular has something to prove after flopping with an .896 save percentage during Boston’s first-round choke against Florida last spring.

The Leafs simply don’t know what they have in goal, game to game, period to period, minute to minute. Last postseason, Ilya Samsonov was brilliant on the road and shaky at home before getting hurt and giving way to prospect Joseph Woll during Round 2. Thrown into a difficult situation with his team trailing in the series to the Panthers, Woll flashed all the characteristics of a future star No. 1: big, poised, athletic, giving no sense that the moment was too big for him. The net appeared to be his for the taking in 2023-24, but an ankle sprain suffered in December cost him almost three months. Samsonov, whose confidence had evaporated to the point he was briefly demoted to the AHL and cleared waivers, got a shot at redemption. From Jan. 21 to April 8, ‘Sammy!’ chants echoed from Leafs Nation as he went 18-3-1 with a .915 save percentage across 22 games. Meanwhile. Woll has struggled to find consistency upon returning from his injury, posting an .890 SV%.

Is the net Samsonov’s for Game 1, then? Well, probably. He was the better goalie in the second half, and the Leafs open the playoffs on the road, where he excelled last year. But the leaky, mercurial version of Samsonov did resurface over the last week or two with some bad performances. He has a short leash. It’s highly likely we see Samsonov and Woll in this series. Goaltending might be Toronto’s primary weakness, but on the other hand, the Leafs are deep between Woll, Samsonov and Martin Jones. All three can play at a high level for short periods of time, which is all you need in the playoffs.

Injuries

On the Bruins side, Carlo was dinged up earlier this week with an undisclosed injury and sat out Boston’s regular-season finale, but he’s expected to play in Game 1. Bruising rookie winger Justin Brazeau, who scored five goals in his first 19 games, is week to week with an upper-body injury and his status for Game 1 is up in the air. The Bruins won’t get rookie center Matthew Poitras (shoulder) back this season, while blueliner Derek Forbort (undisclosed) is expected to play for AHL Providence on a conditioning loan this weekend but isn’t considered particularly close to playing NHL games.

Are the Leafs truly nicked up, or did they simply load-manage some bumps and bruises over the past week since they’d sewn up the third Atlantic Division playoff spot? Domi is dealing with an undisclosed injury that wasn’t bad enough to keep him out of last Saturday’s game but did keep him out of Tuesday’s game. Left winger Bobby McMann’s lower-body injury will cost him the final few games of the regular season, while left winger Calle Jarnkrok has been working his way back from a broken knuckle. It’s possible every one of these players suits up for Game 1. Check this article for updates on the injuries as Game 1 draws closer.

Intangibles

The idea of the Leafs’ opponent being “in their heads” looms large seemingly every postseason. In the salary-cap era, they have never been able to clear the Bruins hump and still have multiple core players who were on hand for the 2019 defeat.

But that principle also applied last spring against the Lightning, who had eliminated them the previous year. Toronto slew their minotaur, defeated Tampa in six games and ended their playoff series win drought at 19 years. Now that the likes of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly have that series win under their belt, does the mental toughness disadvantage no longer apply?

It’s also worth debating how strong Boston’s “winning culture” edge is nowadays given two thirds of their roster has turned over since their trip to the 2019 Final and they now have just two players with Cup rings in Marchand and Kevin Shattenkirk.

Will the matchup simply be decided by who is the better team and not by whose pulse spikes the most in an elimination game?

Series Prediction

The Bruins’ Big, Bad reputation can only take them so far. Underneath it is a far less dangerous version than we’re used to seeing. They’re outgunned offensively against the Leafs, no longer hold their usual defensive edge and aren’t even necessarily the tougher team between the two anymore.

Boston’s superior goaltending could tilt the series in its favor, but the Leafs are equal or better almost everywhere else. They should thank their lucky stars that they avoided a Round 1 matchup against the Florida Panthers. They match up much better against the Bruins and are going to conquer a demon for a second consecutive season.

Maple Leafs in six games.

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