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New housing report breaks down investor demographic data

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A new report by Statistics Canada reveals insights into Canada’s real estate investors.

With demographic statistics published in the report titled “Housing Statistics in Canada,” these insights paint a picture of investors throughout Ontario, British Columbia, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick for the 2020 reference year, highlighting each demographics’ role in the housing market.

Here are some key takeaways.

PROVINCE INVESTOR DIFFERENCES

Statistics Canada notes that Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia represented the highest volume of out-of-province and non-resident investors in 2020.

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Nova Scotia, for instance, had 3.8 per cent of their investors deriving from outside of the province in 2020. Similarly, New Brunswick had 3.0 per cent, while British Columbia had 2.7 per cent of out-of-province investors.

Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker and corporate strategist with Mortgage Outlet Inc., notes that the data, emerging before recent interest rate hikes and developments in inflation, represents a very different housing market.

“A lot has changed” since 2020, she told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday. “I don’t know if we can really base this on the profile of existing investors.”

But Zlatkin also explained that 2020 trends reflecting out-out-province investors in the East Coast remain relevant to the current housing market.

“For many Ontario investors who want to get into the market with a second or third home in the course of the last two or three years, the East Coast has been really cheap in terms of property values,” she said. “So it’s been a really good opportunity to buy properties out there and still be renting them for the same cost as properties in the [Greater Toronto Area].”

The data revealed that, compared with other types of investors, out-of-province investors earned the highest average incomes in all five provinces assessed. In most provinces, however, investors who owned vacant land in addition to a primary residence had an average annual income that was similar to people who were not investing in real estate.

In New Brunswick, 1.6 per cent of in-province investors owned three or more properties. This was one end of the housing stock range, which saw 2.9 per cent of Ontario investors owning three or more properties in their province.

“For Nova Scotia and New Brunswick [the volume of out-of-province investors] makes a lot of sense,” Zlatkin said. “Property values in Nova Scotia are so much less. You could rent out the properties for a good amount… You could buy a rental property in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick for two, three hundred thousand dollars in the last two years. And you could rent that same property out for two thousand dollars [per month].”

In Ontario, Zlatkin explained, to buy a property that you could rent out for $2,000 you would need to pay upwards of $500,000 or $600,000. “When you look at how much is required and what kind of mortgage you’d need to qualify for, it makes a lot more sense to buy out east.”

Zlatkin also explained that managing properties when you live out of the province would be much more difficult. However, “if it’s a smaller value property, the risk is not as high.”

IMMIGRATION INVESTORS COMPARED TO CANADIAN-BORN INVESTORS

Statistics Canada also reported that established immigrants – meaning those who arrived in Canada before 2010 – were more likely to be investors than their proportion in the population. British Columbia, for instance, found immigrant investors carried an average property value totalling $2,200,000. This compares to Canadian-born real estate investors who had an average assessed value standing at $1,610,000.

Similarly, in Ontario, the average assessed value for immigrant investors was $1,290,000 and $890,000 for Canadian-born investors.

According to Statistics Canada, a major reason for these value discrepancies derived from the fact that immigrant investors were “more likely to own a primary residence in a larger census metropolitan area.” In highly populated cities, property assessment values are “generally higher compared to other parts of the provinces,” Statistics Canada explained in the report.

Zlatkin believes a major factor is the competitive process of immigration in the country, which leans towards welcoming newcomers with high education and high-paying job eligibility.

“When you look at how we allow immigration to happen in Canada, most people who are immigrating into Canada are extremely well educated,” she said. “They come in with a lot of credentials. People [who immigrated] are [often] very employable if they don’t already have employment. They may also come from situations where they were previously doing well in their home country and they may have family members who are still doing well in their home country.”

Zlatkin explained that there is a lot of asset opportunity for those with an existing income or those who have financial backing, either from an incoming job or from family.

INDIVIDUAL INCOME AVERAGES AND INVESTOR AGES

The report also found that disparity in incomes was more significant in B.C., and Ontario.

In B.C., Canadian-born investors had an average individual income of $105,000 in 2020, with immigrant investors carrying an average individual income of $80,000.

The same average income ($80,000) was traced to immigrant investors in Ontario, where as the average individual income for Canadian-born investors in the province was $100,000.

Notably, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were the only provinces out of the five that showed immigrant investor incomes higher than the individual incomes of Canadian-born investors.

In Nova Scotia, immigrant investors earned an average annual income of $75,000, while Canadian-born investors earned $65,000. In New Brunswick, the average individual income of immigrant investors stood at $65,000 in 2020, while Canadian-born investors earned an average of $60,000.

“When you look at the average income here, most of these people wouldn’t qualify for two or three homes,” Zlatkin said, explaining key differences with the housing market of 2020.

Along with showing that residents aged 55 and older represented a “higher proportion of investors than their share of the provincial populations,” the report explained that Canadians 35 and younger averaged 5 per cent of total property investors in 2020.

Zlatkin called this “shocking.”

“I’m shocked because most people under 35 don’t have enough income to qualify for these mortgages,” she said.

Zlatkin mentioned that this could be a result of generational wealth, financial cushioning from families, and shifts in lifestyle focus for younger investors.

Zlatkin said this trend could reflect an increased demand for millennials to have better work life balance – a luxury afforded to real estate investors who rent out properties and only have to maintain them in order to incur wealth.

To rent out multiple properties you actually “could acquire quite a bit of wealth and it’s long-lasting throughout your entire lifetime,” she said.

“For a millennial who has the money or has generational wealth it makes sense that young people are incredibly incented to buy.”

 With files from CTVNews.ca’s Jesse Tahirali

 

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Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout – The Wall Street Journal

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Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout  The Wall Street Journal

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Home buyer savings plans boost demand, not affordability – Financial Post

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Robert McLister: Tax shelters don’t make housing more affordable, but those with the cash would be foolish not to use them

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With housing unaffordability near its worst-ever level, our trusty leaders are on a quest to right their housing wrongs and get more young people into homes.

Part of Ottawa’s big strategy to “help” is promoting tax-sheltered savings accounts and pumping up their contribution limits. That, of course, stimulates real estate demand amidst Canada’s population and housing supply crises. But save that thought.

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First-time buyers now have three government piggy banks to stockpile cash for a down payment:

1. The 32-year-old RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan — which lets you deduct contributions from your income to defer taxes and then borrow from the account interest-free for your down payment (as long as you wait 90-plus days to withdraw any contributions);

2. The 15-year-old Tax-free Savings Account (TFSA) — which lets you save after-tax dollars, grow your money tax-free and withdraw it without the taxman taking a bite;

3. The one-year-old First Home Savings Account (FHSA) — which is a combination of an RRSP and TFSA. It lets you deduct contributions from income, compound it tax-free and never pay tax on withdrawals used to buy a home. You can even save the deduction for a year when you need it more — when you’re earning more money.

Assuming you have the funds and contribution room, these tax shelters can combine to help you amass a supersized down payment.

“Looking at the FHSA alone, with the max annual contribution room of $8,000 for 2023 and 2024, a potential first-time home buyer could have as much as $16,000 deposited in the account today for a down payment,” says Eric Larocque, chief mortgage operations officer at Questrade’s Community Trust Company.

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“If you also add in the cumulative contribution room of $95,000 for the TFSA, it amounts to $111,000 in potential funds available — and that’s before incorporating investment gains from either account.”

And it doesn’t stop there. RRSP, TFSA and FHSA savings limits keep increasing. If first-timers have enough contribution room, down payment savers in 2024 can sock away even more in these tax-sheltered troves.

“Factoring in the recent changes to the Home Buyers’ Plan, which now permits RRSP withdrawals of up to $60,000 — up from $35,000 — we land at a potential total of $171,000 in deposited funds that can be tapped for a first-time home buyer’s down payment,” Larocque adds.

That’s quite a wad — easily enough to cover the 20 per cent ($139,706) down payment required to avoid mandatory (and pricey) default insurance on the average home. Canada’s average abode is now worth $698,530 by the way, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Here’s the rub: Canada’s living costs are sky-high, and real disposable income has trended downward. So, how’s an average first-time buyer household, raking in less than six figures, supposed to amass such a stash?

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Based on national averages, saving 10 per cent of one’s pre-tax income per year (who does that?) would take a young FTB couple over 15 years to sock away $140,000. History shows what would happen to home values if you waited 15 years — they’d jet off without you.

If you have no other resources and your bet is that historical appreciation rates continue — despite slower population growth, more building and potentially higher long-term rates — you’re better off saving less and buying sooner with a five per cent down insured mortgage.

So, does Big Brother really expect your typical first-time buyer to max out all these savings plans? Nope. But hey, throwing a buffet of options at you sure paints a pretty picture of government effort, doesn’t it?

Ottawa’s dirty little secret is that these nifty programs crank up demand, turning renters into buyers. So don’t bet on them making the home-owning dream any cheaper, for first-timers or anyone else.

Take advantage of them anyway.

The government sets limits on these tax shelters with well-off home buyers in mind. One lucky bunch who can make use of all three down payment savings plans is the first-timer with prosperous parents.

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Such buyers can make a withdrawal from their parental ATM (a living inheritance, some call it), deposit that cash in all three savings vehicles above and reap: hefty income tax savings or deferrals (thanks to the FHSA and RRSP deductions); tax-free/tax-deferred growth on the investments; and tax-free withdrawals if the money is used to buy a qualifying home (albeit, you’ll have to pay the RRSP HBP back over 15 years, starting five years after your withdrawal).

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The more opportunities it gives people to save for a down payment, the more Ottawa worsens the imbalance between purchase demand and supply. And that, of course, boosts real estate values skyward — which is dandy for existing owners but contradictory to the government’s affordability messaging.

But hey, these tax treats are ripe for the picking. Home shoppers with the means — especially those with deep-pocketed parents — might as well take advantage of all three accounts.

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

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$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom – Yahoo Finance

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$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

Successful real estate investors have long followed the adage: When there is blood in the street, buy property.

Historically, this approach has yielded dividends, and it explains the mindset behind a new venture from Hines, a real estate giant with over $93 billion in assets under management. Hines recently announced a new platform called Hines Private Wealth Solutions that seeks to capitalize on the recent troubles in the real estate industry.

The management at Hines has been carefully watching the real estate industry for decades, and they believe that today’s market presents the perfect opportunity for investors to buy distressed assets and sell them at a profit in the future. When you consider that nearly $4 trillion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature between now and 2027, it’s easy to see the logic behind Hines Private Wealth Solutions.

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The developers behind many of those projects took out loans assuming they would be able to refinance at pre-COVID interest rates. Considering that current interest rates are about double what they were before COVID-19, that assumption looks more like a losing bet every day. It also means there will be a lot of foreclosures that a well-positioned fund can snap up for pennies on the dollar.

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That’s where Hines Private Wealth Solutions seeks to step into the picture. It’s already contracted with investing heavyweight Paul Ferraro, former head of Carlyle Private Wealth Group, and raised $10 billion in funds for the new project. It will offer its clients a range of investment options, including:

In addition to these offerings, Hines will also give personal guidance to its investors on how to best manage their real estate assets. It is targeting investors who want to turn away from the traditional 60/40 investment model by channeling more money into real estate and away from other alternative investments. Hines is banking on the idea that high interest rates and high inflation will be around for a while.

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When that happens, it becomes more important for investors to hold inflation-resistant assets. That’s a big part of why Hines is betting that real estate is near the bottom after years of declining profits resulting from high interest rates and major losses in the commercial sector. Hines’s conclusion that now is the time to buy real estate is based on long-term company research showing that real estate typically declines after a 15- to 17-year-long growth period.

Its research shows that the decline normally lasts around two years, which is about the same length of time the real estate market has been suffering from high prices and high interest rates. Theoretically, that makes this the perfect time to make aggressive moves in the real estate market, and the Hines Private Wealth Fund was conceived to allow investors to take advantage of current market conditions.

Despite the deep troubles facing today’s real estate industry, it’s not hard to see the logic in Hines’s approach.

“This is a great vintage, it’s a great moment. This real estate correction began really over two years ago, right when the Fed started raising interest rates,” Hines global Chief Investment Officer David Steinbach told Fortune magazine. “So, we’re two years into a cycle, which means we’re near the end.”

If Hines is correct, real estate investors will have a lot of good bargains with high upside to choose from in the next 12 to 24 months. The good news is that even if you’re not wealthy enough to buy into the Hines Private Wealth Solution, there may still be plenty of opportunity for you to adopt their investment philosophy and start scouting for an undervalued, distressed asset to scoop up. Keep your eyes open and be ready.

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This article $93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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