Home prices in the Greater Toronto Area are expected to slide once again next year, according to a new report from one of the country’s largest real estate brokerages.

In a report published on Tuesday, Re/Max said it is predicting prices to dip in the GTA by three per cent in 2024. This comes as the average sale price dropped by 5.9 per cent in 2023.

While a price decline is in the forecast, a surge in home sales is also expected. According to the brokers and agents surveyed for the report, home sales in the GTA are expected to rise by more than 10 per cent next year. This uptick follows a 13.5 per cent drop in sales in 2023.

“Not unlike other regions across the country, inflation and the interest rate environment has had the largest impact on homeowners across the GTA, and this is expected to remain prevalent into 2024, Cameron Forbes, CEO and General Manager/Broker at RE/MAX Realtron Realty Inc., said in a written statement.

“This has forced many buyers and sellers to take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in the latter half of 2023. Given this, activity is poised to increase through the year with the anticipated plateauing and reduction in interest rates.”

A series of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada over the last two years has led borrowing costs to skyrocket for many current and prospective homeowners, leading to period of lower sales activity. Some experts are predicting that the Bank of Canada could begin cutting interest rates as early as the second quarter of 2024.

While Toronto has typically been a “seller’s market,” it is expected to transition to a “buyers/ balanced market” next year, the report notes.

“The GTA market is anticipated to gain balance in 2024 but is also expected to favour buyers at certain points of the year,” according to the report.

“Considering the interest rate environment and the cost of living this year, housing market conditions in 2023 have fluctuated. As interest rates have recently paused, many markets are stabilizing with several regions in Ontario (61 per cent), expected to remain unchanged in 2024 from their current market conditions.”

According to the report, Niagara, Mississauga, Durham Region, Brampton, Grand Bend, North Bay, Muskoka, Haliburton, and Kingston are among the Ontario regions that are currently considered to be “buyers’ markets.” 

Hamilton and Burlington have experienced “varying conditions throughout the year,” the report notes, but both have “shifted toward buyer’s markets in Q4 of 2023.”

“Looking ahead to next year, Mississauga, Brampton, Simcoe County, Muskoka and Haliburton are likely to balance out,” the report states.

Re/Max is predicting prices to rise by an average of 0.5 per cent nationally in 2024.

“The slower market we’ve been experiencing across the country this fall could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the balancing of conditions in several regions across the country,” Christopher Alexander, president of Re/Max Canada, said in a written statement.

The average price of a home across all property types in the GTA peaked at $1,334,062 in February 2022, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

The latest data from October suggests that the average price in the GTA now stands at 1,125,928 after a 3.5 per cent increase over the previous 12 months.

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As winter activities ramp up across Canada, so will the home prices nearest to ski hills, according to a report by Royal LePage.

The real estate brokerage notes in its 2023 Winter Recreational Property Report that the median price of a single-family detached home near Canada’s ski regions is expected to increase in 2024.

Over the next year, the median is likely to rise by 2.9 per cent to $1,099,661, the report reads.

This comes as a contrast to a possible cooling in the overall housing market, where prices could drop as much as 10 per cent by early 2024, a TD Bank report forecast.

Pauline Aunger, broker of record at Royal LePage Advantage Real Estate, said in a news release accompanying the firm’s latest report that the increase to homes around ski hills is expected to be “modest.”

“Recreational house prices in Canada’s popular ski regions are expected to remain stable in the year ahead,” she said. “While demand has weakened and supply has increased compared to the pandemic-fueled boom, market activity is trending back to normal historical levels.”

At the beginning of this year, home prices in ski regions did post a year-over-year decline, Royal LePage noted, largely due to high interest rates and the increased cost of living.

“Uneasiness” about the economy also played into the decline in price, the report reads.

Within the first 10 months of 2023, the median sale price for a single-family detached winter recreational home remained flat, decreasing just 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,068,200.

But since that time, the report says, “market activity is trending back to historical norms, following an unprecedented boost in activity during the pandemic.”

WHERE ARE PRICES INCREASING?

A large portion of Canada’s ski hills are located in Quebec, where many communities are expected to see high year-over-year increases in price.

The Royal LePage report notes homes around Mont Sutton, including Brome and Lac-Brome, are expected to rise in price by 8 per cent in 2024.

Homes in this area could rise from a median price of $697,500 for a single-family detached home to $753,300, according to the just-released predictions.

Near Mont-Tremblant, including in the areas of Mont-Blanc and La Conception, prices in 2024 could rise by 4 per cent, from a median 2023 price of $539,000 to $560,560, the report predicts.

A 4 per cent increase is expected for homes near Mont Saint-Sauveur, Morin-Heights and Piedmont.

In Ontario, homes are likely to increase by 4.5 per cent near Georgian Bay, including in Collingwood, Meaford and Thornbury, the report predicts.

The median sale price in the region in 2023 was around $800,000, and could increase to $836,000 in 2024.

While Royal LePage predicts most buyers will pay more in 2024, that is not the case in some areas.

Homes in Canmore, Alta., saw a leap this year of 9.6 per cent compared to 2022, with a median price of $1.7 million for the region. The report says home prices are expected to decrease by a median of 0.5 per cent in 2024.

But in British Columbia, where sellers of homes near ski hills this year saw, at times, double-digit price losses, single-family detached homes are expected to rebound slightly in 2024, the report notes.

In the Sun Peaks region, home prices dropped 21.3 per cent between 2022 and 2023. A gain of 3 per cent is expected next year, bringing the median from $1.21 million to $1.24 million.

Bucking the 2023 provincial trend, homes near Mount Washington and in the Comox Valley jumped 26.5 per cent year-over-year. Prices are likely to keep climbing by 0.5 per cent, according to the report.

Royal LePage predicts that one of the province’s best-known ski towns, Whistler, will see home price increases close to 5 per cent on average in 2024, rising from a median price of $3.6 million to $3.8 million.

“Although recreational real estate markets vary greatly from one region to the next, activity on the whole in Canada’s winter recreational communities has noticeably slowed,” Aunger said in the press release. “Annual sales are down in most regions and inventory has climbed modestly as the market continues to regain balance. This has not, however, translated to steep price declines in a majority of markets.”

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If you’re looking to enter the real estate investing world next year, now is a good time to start thinking about where to buy property. The best places to buy typically have a growing population, affordable homes and a thriving job market.

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GOBankingRates spoke with Kurt Carlton, president and co-founder of New Western, a private source of residential investment properties, to get his predictions for the markets that will be huge for real estate investing in 2024.

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Atlanta; Charlotte, North Carolina; Tampa, Florida; and Dallas-Fort Worth

Carlton believes that a number of the recent top markets will continue to be hot leading into 2024.

“Top markets for investors that we have seen emerge over the last few months include Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa and Dallas-Fort Worth,” he said. “In Q3, Realtor.com released the top 10 growing metropolitan areas that people are looking to move to, also highlighting Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa and Charlotte.”

In addition to their growing populations, there are a few other factors that make these places appealing markets for real estate investors.

“These markets are ripe for both homeowners and investors because of the relatively low cost of living and healthy job markets,” Carlton said. “They are also attracting more Fortune 500 companies in various industries, which is driving job growth and adding to their strong economies. Further, Florida and Texas have no state income tax, which often makes them appealing places to live and work.”

Sun Belt Cities

It’s not just the major metros that will be popular with investors in 2024.

“We have found that investors are also targeting smaller but growing cities in the Sun Belt region, which have become increasingly popular with homebuyers in recent years,” Carlton said. “These cities include places like Raleigh, [North Carolina]; Birmingham, [Alabama]; and Tulsa, [Oklahoma]. We expect the momentum to continue into 2024, driving investor demand.”

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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: I’m a Professional Real Estate Investor: These Are the 5 Markets I’m Predicting Will Be Huge in 2024

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