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Posthaste: Why the new mortgage stress test rules could not have come at a worse time for Canada's frothy housing market – Financial Post

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Good Morning!

New mortgage stress test rules set to be rolled out on April 6 could be a boon for would-be home buyers, as it will be more responsive to actual mortgage rates than the current posted rate system, but it “could also be more volatile,” according to the Royal Bank of Canada.

The government is replacing its current method of system based on the large banks’ posted mortgage rates, with one based on the contract rates on all insured mortgages.

Colin Guldimann, an economist at RBC, believes the changes could have a meaningful impact on housing markets across the country.

“For the average household in Toronto with an income around $100,000, this would increase how much they can borrow by about $13,000. Borrowers with higher incomes or larger down payments would see their maximum loan sizes move up somewhat more,” the economist said in a note.

Capital Economics’ senior Canada economist Stephen Brown notes that while the stress test rule would likely mean that Bank of Canada would not change interest rates soon, “the timing could hardly be worse.”

“Reducing the severity of the stress tests is likely to put further upward pressure on house prices, at a time when the sales-to-new listing ratio already points to a surge in house price inflation ahead,” Brown wrote in a note. “The dilemma the Bank currently faces, between the need to support activity on the one hand and the need to limit the build-up of financial risks on the other, will only get worse.”

Here’s what you need to know this morning:

  • Statistics Canada to release its consumer price index for January
  • Bloc Quebecois and New Democratic Party MPs and the Green Party Parliamentary Leader will be joined by environmental and law groups to reveal new information about the rising costs of the Trans Mountain pipeline and call on the government not to borrow any more money for this project
  • Mortgage Professionals of Canada to hold press conference in Ottawa on the state of the mortgage market in Canada and their recommendations to policymakers
  • The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) will release online the results of its review of bank complaint handling procedures and its review of the operations of external complaints bodies in Ottawa
  • Finance Minister Bill Morneau appears before the House of Commons finance committee regarding pre-budget consultations in Ottawa
  • CRTC hearings on mobile wireless services in Gatineau, Que.
  • A detailed route hearing is held for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in Edmonton
  • Tourmaline Oil Corp. , Topaz Oil Corp., and CWC Energy Services Corp. to appear in court to face charges after a release in 2018 of poisonous hydrogen sulphide that affected human health in Grand Prairie, Alta.
  • Notable Earnings: Uni-Select Inc., Bausch Health, Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd, Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd., Alamos Gold Inc., Iamgold

The novel coronavirus is spreading. And health officials don’t seem to have a handle on it yet. Read out full coverage here.

— Please send your news, comments and stories to yhussain@postmedia.com. — Yadullah Hussain @Yad_Fpenergy

With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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