The Eatonville Care Centre, in Toronto, on April 13, 2020.
Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
Premier Doug Ford says Ontario is preparing for the “gradual” reopening of the economy as new modelling shows the province has likely reached its peak in the COVID-19 pandemic, even as the situation in long-term care homes continues to worsen.
Mr. Ford said Monday that his jobs and recovery committee, made up of key cabinet ministers, has begun to develop a framework for a “gradual, measured and safe” reopening of the province, while cautioning that physical distancing and self-isolation measures must remain in place for weeks if not longer.
“Absolutely in no way is this fight over,” the Premier said at Queen’s Park. “We aren’t there yet. … But we want to make sure we give people hope.”
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New projections, released by provincial health officials on Monday, say Ontario is now expected to have fewer than 20,000 cases of the novel coronavirus, substantially lower than the 80,000 projected by previous models.
Matthew Anderson, president and CEO of Ontario Health, said the new projections show that physical-distancing measures implemented weeks ago are working at reducing the spread of COVID-19 in communities.
“We’ve been very successful – you’ve been very successful – in helping us to control the spread and maintain capacity within our acute-care system.”
The numbers in long-term care homes, however, continue to grow.
According to the latest model, at least 367 of the province’s 591 deaths have been in long-term care – more than 60 per cent. The numbers do not include group homes or retirement homes.
There are now 127 outbreaks at the province’s 626 long-term care homes, according to official numbers, but the number is much higher if suspected outbreaks and those not yet reported to the province are included.
New research has found that nursing-home residents over the age of 69 were 13 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than people in the same age group living elsewhere.
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David Fisman, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, and four of his colleagues analyzed confirmed and suspected coronavirus outbreaks at 272 of the province’s 626 long-term care homes as of April 7.
They then compared COVID-19 death rates in long-term care facilities with rates outside of long-term care.
Along with the thirteenfold difference in COVID-19 death rates among people 70 and older, the researchers discovered that people 80 and older were eight times more likely to die of COVID-19 if they lived in long-term care.
The research also found the COVID-19 deaths in nursing-home residents most often followed confirmed infections in staff. The more workers tested positive, the likelier the home was to record a death soon after.
Ontario recently passed an order limiting long-term-care staff to working in one home, but it does not apply to temporary or contract workers. The province also says it is sending in hospital “SWAT” teams of medical professionals to help homes, including 70 volunteers from Toronto’s University Health Network, and says guidelines for personal protective equipment are also being followed. On the weekend, 21 homes received “much needed supports,” the Ministry of Long-Term Care said.
On Monday, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath called on the government to immediately take over direct management of long-term care facilities where residents are not being protected, to restrict all workers in congregate-care settings – including temp agency workers – to one facility only, and to raise wages to $22 an hour for care-home staff.
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But Merrilee Fullerton, Minister of Long-Term Care, has rejected calls to take over such facilities, including two of the hardest-hit homes in the province. At Eatonville Care Centre in Toronto and Anson Place Care Centre in Hagersville, at least 58 residents have died and 185 have been made ill by COVID-19.
“Since Day 1, we’ve been on this. And it is not a lack of preparation from my perspective,” Dr. Fullerton said Monday.
Health officials across Canada introduced physical-distancing measures, including closing schools and non-essential businesses, last month to slow the spread of COVID-19 infections. The goal was to prevent the health care system from becoming overwhelmed with a surge of patients, and while Ontario continues to see hundreds of new cases each day, officials and experts say that, over all, the outbreak appears to be largely under control in communities.
But officials and experts say it is still too early to relax physical distancing, as doing so would lead to a spike in new cases.
“Everyone needs to continue to stay home as much as possible, maintain physical distancing, to ensure that the province continues to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve,” said Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health.
In order for provinces to begin opening back up, Dr. Fisman said they will need to figure out ways to maintain suppression of new COVID-19 cases. This will hinge on widespread testing and better surveillance, such as entry screening at hospitals and monitoring infection risk in children if schools open again, he said.
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With reports from Carly Weeks and Kelly Grant.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says the province is expanding its hospital capacity in a bid to anticipate any scenario during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ford says the province added 1,035 acute care beds and 1,492 critical care beds in case of a sudden surge in patients.The Canadian Press
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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
