Sports
Rays’ doubleheader sweep highlights lack of rotation depth for Blue Jays – Sportsnet.ca
TORONTO – The day began with a full stadium, Kevin Gausman on the mound and high hopes for the Toronto Blue Jays. It ended nearly nine hours later with a lopsided loss in a far emptier ballpark.
Along the way, Gausman took a 100 m.p.h. line drive off his right ankle, Casey Lawrence hauled 5.2 innings of emergency relief on short rest and Thomas Hatch coughed up 10 runs in a failed spot start. If there was a common theme to Saturday’s doubleheader losses, it was the lack of pitching depth behind the Blue Jays’ front five.
In the opening game of the day, Wander Franco hit a comebacker off Gausman’s ankle, leading to a scary moment at Rogers Centre. While catcher Gabriel Moreno scrambled to finish the play, Gausman went down hard and the rest of the Blue Jays held their breath.
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Thankfully, X-rays came back negative and the official diagnosis was a right ankle contusion. At this point, the Blue Jays aren’t sure whether Gausman will be able to take his next turn, scheduled for Thursday in Seattle with plans to continue evaluating him in the coming days.
“You feel for a guy like that,” said Lawrence, who replaced Gausman after a brief warm-up in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. “You don’t want anybody to go down in those situations. At the same time, you know you’ve got to be ready to go out there and perform. You’re still thinking about it, hopefully everything’s OK. But then you’ve got a job to do: get major-league hitters out.”
The 34-year-old Lawrence did plenty of that Saturday afternoon, giving the Blue Jays 5.2 innings of relief on 87 pitches just four days after throwing 99 pitches at triple-A on Tuesday.
“That’s a great job by Lawrence,” manager Charlie Montoyo said. “He deserves a lot of credit.”
“It’s part of the job description,” Lawrence noted. “I left it all out there.”
But Shane McClanahan was absolutely dominant for the Rays, limiting the Blue Jays to just one run on three hits while striking out 10 in one of the best pitching performances against Toronto all year. Beyond a first-inning RBI single from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays managed very little in front of the 39,426 in attendance.
“Usually I don’t talk about the other guys, but he was really good,” Montoyo said. “He keeps you off-balance. He pitches like a guy who throws 90 or 91, but he doesn’t. He throws 97. It’s tough. He’s a good pitcher. One of the best pitchers in baseball for sure.”
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The Blue Jays lost the opener 6-2, and things only got worse once Hatch started pitching. Recalled from triple-A Buffalo because of the doubleheader, Hatch allowed 10 runs on 12 hits, including three home runs. While his track record shows he’s capable of more, the 24,180 in attendance saw a pitcher who looked completely overmatched on the way to an 11-5 loss.
The Blue Jays managed a little more offence in the second game, including home runs from Guerrero Jr. and Bradley Zimmer, but it wasn’t enough to make up for the damage allowed by Hatch.
Combined with the scary moment with Gausman earlier, the day highlighted the vulnerability of this starting rotation. Should Gausman or anyone else need to miss a turn, Lawrence, Hatch and Max Castillo represent the next layer of depth for the Blue Jays.
After Saturday, the Blue Jays will presumably prefer to avoid Hatch, who will likely be optioned before Sunday’s game. And as necessary as Lawrence’s innings were, he still allowed six runs. That leaves Castillo, a rookie with all of four big-league appearances, whose last minor-league start came a month ago.
Bullpen game, anyone? That’s hardly an appealing idea, but as the Gausman comebacker reminded us, the unexpected often happens in baseball. Put simply, the Blue Jays are ill-suited to handle any more hits to their rotation. Changing that should be a priority along with augmenting a bullpen that would benefit immensely from another closer-calibre arm.
In recent weeks the Blue Jays have been monitoring the trade market for pitching help, and those efforts are sure to intensify as the Aug. 2 trade deadline approaches. Of course, big-name players haven’t been traded yet with reclamation projects easier to find than impact arms right now.
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Along those lines, the Blue Jays announced the acquisition of Anthony Banda during the doubleheader. A 28-year-old lefty, Banda had recently been designated for assignment by the Pirates after posting a 6.41 ERA in 23 relief appearances with Pittsburgh. Despite the ugly ERA, he’s striking out four times as many hitters as he walks thanks to a 95 m.p.h. fastball and a change-up he uses liberally.
Montoyo was absent from the Blue Jays’ dugout for most of the second game, while coach John Schneider took over as acting manager and first-base coach Mark Budzinski was replaced by bullpen catcher Luis Hurtado. Afterwards, the Blue Jays said Budzinski was dealing with a personal matter and asked that fans and media respect his privacy.
Eventually, the Blue Jays will need more pitching help. They didn’t need to allow 17 runs to the Rays to understand as much, but this one-sided day at the ballpark certainly drove that point home.
TSN.ca Staff
Toronto Blue Jays interim manager John Schneider said Monday the team is weighing their options when it comes to struggling starter Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi saw his record drop to 4-7 on the season with Monday’s 7-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, in which he allowed six runs – three earned – in 3 1/3 innings of work. The 31-year-old is winless in his past three starts and has a 5.25 ERA through 20 games this season.
“Everything’s on the table right now,” Schneider said, per MLB.com. “We just want him to continue to focus on the things he’s working on. But having options and having other guys that can step into roles is a good thing. And we’ll figure that out in the next couple days.”
Kikuchi spent three weeks on the injured list last month with a neck strain. He delivered a strong outing in his return in July 28 against the Tigers, allowing one run and two hits over five innings, and held the Tampa Bay Rays to two runs in four innings on Aug. 3, but has allowed 11 runs over his past two starts.
“There are a few things that we’ve been working on, trying to figure out what’s good and what’s bad,” Kikuchi said through an interpreter after Monday’s loss. “I feel like we’re just caught in between the ups and downs right now.”
Schneider was non-committal on what changes the team could make to help Kikuchi find his way.
“There’s always a scenario for everything,” Schneider said. “Off-days play into it; performance plays into it. It’s a welcome addition to have (Ross) Stripling back and I love what Mitch White has done as well. You can go a variety of different ways. We’re just going to continue to keep our options open.”
The Blue Jays dropped to 61-53 with Monday’s loss and now sit tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild-card spot, a game and a half ahead of the Orioles, who they will play again on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Orioles have been a thorn in the Blue Jays’ sides all season. As such, even with Alek Manoah on the mound, Toronto at -235 is simply too steep to offer any value. We’re pivoting to focus more on the total in what could be a low-scoring clash.
The Baltimore Orioles moved to 9-4 in the month of August with a 7-3 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night.
In Tuesday night’s matchup, Toronto looks for revenge as Alek Manoah battles Dean Kremer on the mound.
This is an important series in a crowded AL playoff race. Toronto is currently tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for the second Wild Card, leaving Baltimore 1.5 games back.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, August 16.
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened -215, but money has come on them and widened the line, which currently resides between -213 and -235, with most books closer to the latter. As for the total, both 8.5 and 9 are available at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 8/16/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, August 16, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, Sportsnet
Orioles vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.70 ERA): In Kremer’s first extended stay in the show, he compiled an ugly 7.55 ERA across 13 starts in 2021. It’s safe to say things have gone better for the right-hander this go around as indicated by his 3.69 ERA. His 4.87 xERA is a concern and his 6.4% barrel rate is too high to trust considering he pitches to contact.
Alek Manoah (12-5, 2.56 ERA): Toronto found a good one in Manoah. Despite being just 24 years old, he’s been one of the better pitchers in MLB this season. His 2.56 ERA is fantastic, although his 3.44 xERA does indicate that some regression might be incoming. His strikeout rate (22.4%) is down over five percentage points from last season, but he’s countered that by lowering his walk rate by three percentage points to 5.6%.
Weather
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Key injuries
Betting trend to know
Toronto is 9-2 in its last 11 games on astroturf. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
With these teams so close in the AL East and Wild Card standings, it’s fair to question whether or not this line is too wide. After all, these divisional foes have played seven times this season and Baltimore has won five times — yet the Orioles are a significant +195 underdog at most books.
The pitching discrepancy is the most likely answer. Manoah has been fantastic, compiling a 2.56 ERA, while Kremer’s 4.87 xERA and 6.4% barrel rate don’t instill much confidence.
Still, Manoah has faced the Orioles twice in 2022 and his team is 1-1 during those games. He tossed a beautiful one-hit, seven-strikeout, blanking of the Orioles back on June 13, but allowed three earned on eight hits across only five innings in a no-decision in his most recent outing, which Toronto lost 6-5.
Ultimately, it’s hard to not give Toronto a significant edge in starting pitching. The Blue Jays are 13-9 in Manoah’s starts this season, which includes a 6-2 record at home.
As for the lineups, Toronto ranks fifth in wRC+ this season while Baltimore checks in at 20th. The roles have been almost perfectly reversed in the month of August, however, as Baltimore ranks fifth in wRC+ and Toronto ranks 21st.
The Orioles have been hot, going 25-11 in their last 36 games overall. This seems like a favorable spot for them as they’ve had success against Toronto this season and are 9-2 in their last 11 during Game 2 of a series and 5-0 in their last five Tuesday games.
The Blue Jays have been cold, going 1-5 in their last six overall. The line is not justified in my opinion, so I’ll side with the Orioles against the moneyline as it represents better value.
Prediction: Orioles moneyline (+195 at bet365)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Over/Under analysis
If you played the Under in every game that these two starting pitchers appeared in during the 2022 season, you would’ve made a nice profit. The Orioles are 8-4 to the Under in Kremer’s 12 starts while the Blue Jays are 14-8 to the Under when Manoah is on the bump.
Baltimore has been hot at the plate, ranking fifth in both wOBA and wRC+ since the calendar flipped to June. Manoah has been fantastic this season, and it’s difficult to project the Orioles for an offensive explosion when facing a pitcher who has allowed just a 3.8% barrel rate this season.
Toronto’s lineup has gone through hot and cold stretches this season. It’s a potent lineup that can look very dangerous when things are clicking. The Blue Jays are in the midst of a cold spell, however, ranking 19th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+ in August.
Toronto is 9-2 to the Under in its last 11 games on astroturf and the Under has been a good play at the Rogers Centre during this cold spell, cashing in seven of the Blue Jays’ last nine home games.
Both of these starting pitchers have trended toward the Under this season, and I’ll bet on that to continue Tuesday night.
Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
I’m rocking with the Under as Tuesday’s Best Bet between the Orioles and Blue Jays.
Baltimore’s bats have been hot, but a matchup against Manoah is nothing to scoff at. The youngster has been terrific this season, posting a 2.56 ERA and 3.8% barrel rate. Toronto is 14-8 to the Under in games that he starts.
Meanwhile, Toronto’s lineup has gone cold, and though Kremer may not be a household name, the Orioles have gone 8-4 to the Under across his 12 starts.
Some books are posting a total of 8.5 but 9 is available in a few spots, so I’m grabbing that number and riding with Under 9 as the best bet.
Pick: Under 9 (-120 at DraftKings)
MLB parlays
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