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RBC monitors coronavirus and rail blockades as it reports Q1 profit – CTV News

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TORONTO —
Royal Bank of Canada is monitoring the recent, novel coronavirus outbreak and rail blockades across the country, but says it’s too early to see the full impact of either yet.

Graeme Hepworth, the Toronto-based bank’s chief risk officer, said Friday he is watching the new form of the coronavirus, which has spread to a handful of Canadians and tens of thousands more around the globe, because it exposes RBC to multiple dangers.

“First and foremost, it’s just the health and safety of our employees and then ensuring that we have the operational continuity and resiliency to work through this period and work through a period where it could potentially get worse,” he said. “And then we look at the financial side of it.”

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He noted RBC does not operate in Mainland China, so the bank has no direct exposure to the affects of the outbreak there, but the bank could feel the impact of “the Chinese consumer kind of disappearing for a period” and disruptions to supply chains because of China’s prominence in manufacturing.

Hepworth said the bank is evaluating the sectors it thinks are most impacted and engaging with its clients around the issue, “but the reality is that this is too early, too soon to really have a view as to the real impact here.”

“It’s going to really depend on the duration of this and the severity going forward and right now, that’s highly uncertain,” he said. “We’re not seeing any impacts in our portfolio at this point in time, so we are monitoring in potential.”

Hepworth’s outlook was much the same, when asked opponents to the Coastal GasLink pipeline, who have blocked rail lines in Ontario, Quebec and B.C., causing CN Rail to suspend service and Via Rail to cancel dozens of passenger trains.

“It’s too uncertain and it’s too early to provide any guidance as to how material that could be,” he said, referring to potential impacts on the bank’s second-quarter earnings, which are due in May.

His remarks, made on the company’s first-quarter conference call, came as the bank raised its dividend and reported a profit of $3.5 billion for the period, which on ended Jan. 31.

The bank will now pay a quarterly dividend of $1.08 per share, up from its previous payment to shareholders of $1.05 per share.

RBC’s profit amounted to $2.40 per diluted share for the quarter compared with a profit of nearly $3.2 billion or $2.15 per diluted share in the same quarter a year earlier.

The bank said its adjusted diluted cash earnings per share for the quarter amounted to $2.44.

Analysts on average had expected an adjusted profit $2.31 per share, according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.

RBC attributed those results to record earnings in capital markets as well as strong earnings growth in its personal and commercial banking operations. It also saw growth in wealth management and insurance, partially offset by lower results in investor and treasury services.

“We had a great start to the year, delivering record quarterly earnings…We reported record results in Canadian banking and capital markets and very strong results in wealth capital management, despite interest rate headwinds, and a good quarter in insurance,” RBC chief executive Dave McKay says. “Our results were driven by strong volume growth across our leading client franchises, lower provision for credit loss and prudent expense management.”

SIA Wealth Management Inc.’s chief market strategist Colin Cieszynski said in a note to investors that he took such results as a sign that “Canadian bank earnings season is off to a positive start.”

RBC was the first of Canada’s big banks to report their earnings. TD Canada Trust, the Bank of Nova Scotia, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and the National Bank of Canada will follow next week.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 21, 2020

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Why the Bank of Canada decided to hold interest rates in April – Financial Post

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Divisions within the Bank of Canada over the timing of a much-anticipated cut to its key overnight interest rate stem from concerns of some members of the central bank’s governing council that progress on taming inflation could stall in the face of stronger domestic demand — or even pick up again in the event of “new surprises.”

“Some members emphasized that, with the economy performing well, the risk had diminished that restrictive monetary policy would slow the economy more than necessary to return inflation to target,” according to a summary of deliberations for the April 10 rate decision that were published Wednesday. “They felt more reassurance was needed to reduce the risk that the downward progress on core inflation would stall, and to avoid jeopardizing the progress made thus far.”

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Others argued that there were additional risks from keeping monetary policy too tight in light of progress already made to tame inflation, which had come down “significantly” across most goods and services.

Some pointed out that the distribution of inflation rates across components of the consumer price index had approached normal, despite outsized price increases and decreases in certain components.

“Coupled with indicators that the economy was in excess supply and with a base case projection showing the output gap starting to close only next year, they felt there was a risk of keeping monetary policy more restrictive than needed.”

In the end, though, the central bankers agreed to hold the rate at five per cent because inflation remained too high and there were still upside risks to the outlook, albeit “less acute” than in the past couple of years.

Despite the “diversity of views” about when conditions will warrant cutting the interest rate, central bank officials agreed that monetary policy easing would probably be gradual, given risks to the outlook and the slow path for returning inflation to target, according to the summary of deliberations.

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They considered a number of potential risks to the outlook for economic growth and inflation, including housing and immigration, according to summary of deliberations.

The central bankers discussed the risk that housing market activity could accelerate and further boost shelter prices and acknowledged that easing monetary policy could increase the likelihood of this risk materializing. They concluded that their focus on measures such as CPI-trim, which strips out extreme movements in price changes, allowed them to effectively look through mortgage interest costs while capturing other shelter prices such as rent that are more reflective of supply and demand in housing.

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They also agreed to keep a close eye on immigration in the coming quarters due to uncertainty around recent announcements by the federal government.

“The projection incorporated continued strong population growth in the first half of 2024 followed by much softer growth, in line with the federal government’s target for reducing the share of non-permanent residents,” the summary said. “But details of how these plans will be implemented had not been announced. Governing council recognized that there was some uncertainty about future population growth and agreed it would be important to update the population forecast each quarter.”

• Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com

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Meta shares sink after it reveals spending plans – BBC.com

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Woman looks at phone in front of Facebook image - stock shot.

Shares in US tech giant Meta have sunk in US after-hours trading despite better-than-expected earnings.

The Facebook and Instagram owner said expenses would be higher this year as it spends heavily on artificial intelligence (AI).

Its shares fell more than 15% after it said it expected to spend billions of dollars more than it had previously predicted in 2024.

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Meta has been updating its ad-buying products with AI tools to boost earnings growth.

It has also been introducing more AI features on its social media platforms such as chat assistants.

The firm said it now expected to spend between $35bn and $40bn, (£28bn-32bn) in 2024, up from an earlier prediction of $30-$37bn.

Its shares fell despite it beating expectations on its earnings.

First quarter revenue rose 27% to $36.46bn, while analysts had expected earnings of $36.16bn.

Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said its spending plans were “aggressive”.

She said Meta’s “substantial investment” in AI has helped it get people to spend time on its platforms, so advertisers are willing to spend more money “in a time when digital advertising uncertainty remains rife”.

More than 50 countries are due to have elections this year, she said, “which hugely increases uncertainty” and can spook advertisers.

She added that Meta’s “fortunes are probably also being bolstered by TikTok’s uncertain future in the US”.

Meta’s rival has said it will fight an “unconstitutional” law that could result in TikTok being sold or banned in the US.

President Biden has signed into law a bill which gives the social media platform’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, nine months to sell off the app or it will be blocked in the US.

Ms Lund-Yates said that “looking further ahead, the biggest risk [for Meta] remains regulatory”.

Last year, Meta was fined €1.2bn (£1bn) by Ireland’s data authorities for mishandling people’s data when transferring it between Europe and the US.

And in February of this year, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg faced blistering criticism from US lawmakers and was pushed to apologise to families of victims of child sexual exploitation.

Ms Lund-Yates added that the firm has “more than enough resources to throw at legal challenges, but that doesn’t rule out the risks of ups and downs in market sentiment”.

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Oil Firms Doubtful Trans Mountain Pipeline Will Start Full Service by May 1st

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Oil companies planning to ship crude on the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline in Canada are concerned that the project may not begin full service on May 1 but they would be nevertheless obligated to pay tolls from that date.

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In a letter to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Suncor Energy and other shippers including BP and Marathon Petroleum have expressed doubts that Trans Mountain will start full service on May 1, as previously communicated, Reuters reports.

Trans Mountain Corporation, the government-owned entity that completed the pipeline construction, told Reuters in an email that line fill on the expanded pipeline would be completed in early May.

After a series of delays, cost overruns, and legal challenges, the expanded Trans Mountain oil pipeline will open for business on May 1, the company said early this month.

“The Commencement Date for commercial operation of the expanded system will be May 1, 2024. Trans Mountain anticipates providing service for all contracted volumes in the month of May,” Trans Mountain Corporation said in early April.

The expanded pipeline will triple the capacity of the original pipeline to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 300,000 bpd to carry crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia on the Pacific Coast.  

The Federal Government of Canada bought the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) from Kinder Morgan back in 2018, together with related pipeline and terminal assets. That cost the federal government $3.3 billion (C$4.5 billion) at the time. Since then, the costs for the expansion of the pipeline have quadrupled to nearly $23 billion (C$30.9 billion).

The expansion project has faced continuous delays over the years. In one of the latest roadblocks in December, the Canadian regulator denied a variance request from the project developer to move a small section of the pipeline due to challenging drilling conditions.

The company asked the regulator to reconsider its decision, and received on January 12 a conditional approval, avoiding what could have been another two-year delay to start-up.

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