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Real estate prices are dropping across Canada, but that doesn’t mean affordability is improving

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The price of the average home in Vancouver has fallen by more than $100,000 over the last year, but thanks to soaring interest rates, the amount of money needed to afford such a home has risen, according to Ratehub.ca.

In a new study, the online mortgage brokerage and interest rate comparison website calculated the minimum annual income required to buy an average home in cities across Canada in March, and compared that data to the same calculation for March 2022.

“While home prices are down significantly in the majority of the cities we looked at, the income required to purchase a home still remains inflated due to higher mortgage and stress test rates,” said James Laird, the company’s co-CEO, in a news release Monday.

This dynamic is most extreme in Vancouver, where real estate prices have long been disconnected from local wages.

According to Ratehub.ca, the average home price in Vancouver declined from $1,263,500 in March 2022 to $1,143,900 last month.

That’s a decrease of nearly $120,000, but the study finds that this decrease is more than offset by the increased cost of borrowing caused by the Bank of Canada’s dramatic hiking of interest rates throughout 2022.

In March 2022, Ratehub.ca’s average of the big five banks’ five-year fixed mortgage rates stood at 3.14 per cent, meaning the “stress test” rate that buyers had to prove they could handle was 5.25 per cent.

Last month, the average rate had risen to 5.54 per cent, with a 7.54 per cent stress test rate.

According to Ratehub.ca, that change means people looking to buy an average home in Vancouver today must earn an annual income of $221,580, up from an already astronomical $200,220 as of March 2022.

The median after-tax household income in Metro Vancouver was $79,500 in 2020, according to Statistics Canada.

Ratehub.ca assumed a mortgage with a 20-per-cent down payment, 25-year amortization, $4,000 in annual property taxes and $150 in monthly heating bills for its analysis.

Vancouver is not alone in seeing the cost of buying an average home increase.

The study found real estate prices had dropped in nine of the 10 cities covered in the study, but the amount of income required to buy an average home rose in nine of 10 cities as well.

Calgary was the lone exception to the price-drop trend. The average home there costs about $5,600 more than it did in March 2022, according to Ratehub.ca.

Meanwhile, Hamilton, Ont., was the only city out of the 10 where the annual income required to buy an average home decreased, dropping by about $4,460.

Vancouver had the highest overall income required to afford an average home in March 2023, but Toronto was close behind at $217,000.

Hamilton and Victoria, B.C., were the only other cities where an income higher than $150,000 was required to afford an average home, with Victoria requiring $168,750 and Hamilton requiring $165,940.

The most affordable cities included in the study were Winnipeg and Edmonton, each of which required an income below $100,000 to afford an average home, according to Ratehub.ca’s calculations.

In Edmonton, the requisite income was $81,950, while in Winnipeg it was $75,650.

The full comparison of cities follows.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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