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Recession risks put Canada's stock market beat in jeopardy – BNN

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Recession fears are dimming chances that the Canadian market can continue this year’s outperformance.

While the S&P/TSX Composite Index’s drop is less steep than other global indices, a looming economic downturn could test its resilience. Surging oil and gas prices helped boost energy stocks and kept the 9 per cent slide for Canada’s key benchmark from following the S&P 500 Index to its 19 per cent plunge.

Now those energy price surges are fading amid growing concerns about an economic slowdown, sending some investors fleeing from the value-heavy S&P/TSX. Strategists like Macan Nia, Manulife Asset Management’s co-chief investment officer, are focusing on the next move by US policy makers. 

“If there is a pivot in Fed tone where they become less hawkish, then the US markets will rally versus the TSX,” Nia said in an interview. “The outperformance that we have seen in the first half of the year between Canada and the US — Canada could give that up.”

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Energy stocks dominated in the first half of the year amid a commodity boom as investors sought safe havens amid escalating geopolitical risks. Of the top 10 companies with the strongest gains, nine are oil and gas companies. Athabasca Oil Corp. soared 114 per cent and Tourmaline Oil Corp. surged 72 per cent.

Now, that rally has fallen victim to recession fears because of the potential for lower demand if the economy slows. The S&P/TSX slid from its record high in March into a correction, as financials and materials turned negative, while still managing to outpace the tech-heavy S&P 500.

In part, that’s because oil, mining and financial stocks make up more than 60 per cent of the Canadian index. Those found favor with investors amid a revival of enthusiasm for value stocks.

The Canadian market started the year strong with market strategists broadly calling for the S&P/TSX to outperform its US counterpart. By early April, the benchmark had risen to outdo the S&P 500 in its widest quarterly outperformance in 13 years.

As concerns over a recession escalated, the S&P/TSX gave up those gains. While energy still stands tall as the only sector up this year, it’s down 13 per cent from its peak in early June. Materials erased the climb it made earlier in the year and banks tumbled as low as 20 per cent from their record high in February.

Bank of America Corp. equity strategist Ohsung Kwon is still bullish on Canada’s energy sector. He’s projecting that the S&P/TSX is set to outperform the S&P 500 this year, so long as a recession doesn’t ravage the index’s value stocks.

ROOM TO RUN

“Energy still has room to run,” Kwon said in an interview. “Energy stocks are not really pricing in the full benefit of $120 oil and if you look at free cash flow yields for these companies, producers are on average expected to generate 15 per cent free cash flow yield this year compared to the S&P yield of about 5 per cent, so there is still a big valuation discount.”

Other strategists are still convinced that the Canadian market will outperform this year, even if there’s a recession. 

Kurt Reiman, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment strategist, said energy and materials valuations are low even though their earnings are set for strong growth, and that will propel the S&P/TSX to beat the S&P 500 on an annual basis for the first time since 2016.

“If the risk does grow around a recession and that starts to hit the commodities, then we’ll have a garden-variety selloff,” Reiman said at an advisory conference hosted by Royal Bank of Canada last week. “But our view is that commodity prices are more elevated here and because of the nature of the return of cash to shareholders, we find this to be an attractive relative performer.”

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Oil Jumps On Massive Crude Inventory Draw – OilPrice.com

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Oil Jumps On Massive Crude Inventory Draw | OilPrice.com


Irina Slav

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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Crude oil prices moved higher today, after the Energy Information Administration estimated a draw in oil inventories of 7.1 million barrels for the week to August 12.

This compared with a build of 5.5 million barrels reported for the previous week. A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute estimated a modest crude draw of 448,000 barrels for the week to August 12.

In gasoline, the EIA estimated an inventory draw of 4.6 million barrels for last week, which compared with a 5-million-barrel decline for the previous week.

Gasoline production averaged 10 million bpd last week, which compared with 10.2 million bpd during the previous week.

In middle distillates, the EIA reported an inventory build of 800,000 barrels, which compared with a much needed build of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week as inventories have fallen to critical levels.

Middle distillate production averaged 5.1 million barrels daily, compared with 5.1 million bpd for the previous week.

Oil prices hit the lowest in six months earlier this week but recovered after the API report as it suggested demand for oil remained stable despite the challenging economic situation.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $92.47 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate changing hands for $87.01 per barrel.

“A drawdown of U.S. gasoline stockpiles for a second straight week has reassured investors that demand is resilient, prompting buys,” one oil analyst from Fujitomi Securities told Reuters this week.

“Still, the oil market is expected to stay under pressure, with fairly high volatility, due to worries over a potential global recession,” Kazuhiko Saito added.

The volatility is being fed also by continued uncertainty about the Iran nuclear deal, after Iran sent a written response to the EU’s latest proposal with Iranian media suggesting it won’t accept it as is.

Another factor fuelling price volatility are the latest oil demand figures from China, which were weaker than many expected.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Airbnb to roll out new 'anti-party' technology in Canada, U.S. – CBC News

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Airbnb says it will use new methods to spot and block people who try to use the short-term rental service to throw a party.

The company said Tuesday it has introduced technology that examines the would-be renter’s history on Airbnb, how far they live from the home they want to rent, whether they’re renting for a weekday or weekend and other factors.

Airbnb said the screening system that it is rolling out for listings in Canada and the United States has been tested since last October in parts of Australia, where it produced a 35 per cent drop in unauthorized parties.

The San Francisco-based company said the technology is designed to prevent a customer’s request for reservation from ever reaching the host of the property involved. Airbnb said people blocked from renting an entire home might be able to book a single room because the host is more likely to be around.

Worldwide party ban implemented in 2020

Airbnb has been under growing pressure to clamp down on parties since 2019, when a Halloween house party in a San Francisco suburb ended with five people dead in a shooting.

The following year, Airbnb announced a worldwide party ban at its listings and banned people under 25 from renting an entire house near their home unless they had a record of positive reviews on the site.

In 2020, the company suspended more than 40 listings in Ontario alone, targeting hosts who had received warnings, complaints, or had otherwise violated company’s party policy in the year prior.

Last October, a municipality in Quebec temporarily suspended short-term listings when an Airbnb party attracted over 500 attendees. 

The party ban was initially cast as a temporary health measure during the pandemic, as more people moved from bars and clubs into rented homes, but was made permanent in June.

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Hudson's Bay to resurrect discount retail chain Zellers – CBC News

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Canadian department store Zellers hopes to make a comeback next year, a decade after the discount chain shuttered most of its locations.

Hudson’s Bay Co. says Zellers will debut a new e-commerce website and expand its brick-and-mortar footprint within select Hudson’s Bay department stores across the country in early 2023.

  • What do you remember about shopping at Zellers? Let us know in an email to ask@cbc.ca

The company says the relaunched Zellers will offer “a digital-first shopping journey that taps into the nostalgia of the brand.”

In an email to CBC News, a spokesperson for Hudson’s Bay did not confirm where the new Zellers stores will be located.

Initial inventory will include housewares, furniture and toys, with apparel to be introduced later in the year. The company also plans to launch a private brand, according to the release.

Lawsuit over Zellers brand ongoing

The return of Zellers comes as soaring inflation drives consumers to discount retailers in search of lower prices. It follows Tuesday’s announcement from Hudson’s Bay that outdoor gear retailer MEC will open shops in three Bay department store locations this fall.

It also comes amid an ongoing lawsuit over a Quebec family’s use of the Zellers brand.

The Moniz family is behind various recent trademark applications and corporate registries, including Zellers Inc., Zellers Convenience Store Inc. and Zellers Restaurant Inc.

In a statement of claim filed last fall, HBC accused the Moniz family of trademark infringement, depreciation of goodwill and so-called passing off — the deceptive marketing or misrepresentation of goods.

Bruce Winder, a Toronto-based retail analyst, said he believes the Zellers revival is partly a reaction to the lawsuit.

“They need to demonstrate that they are still interested in the brand and there’s no better way to do that than actually open some stores,” Winder said.

Mixed reaction from consumers, retail strategists

A Zellers storefront announces its closure in 2013. Consumers and retail strategists offered mixed reactions after the Hudson’s Bay Company announced it will resurrect the discount chain this year. (CBC)

CBC News heard a range of responses from consumers with fond — and not-so-fond — memories of shopping at Zellers. Some are hoping for the return of the in-store restaurant and the brand’s mascot, Zeddy.

Others expressed hope that Zellers could compete with big-box stores such as Walmart and Giant Tiger.

“I always thought the Zellers was the store that catered to everyone, and I was very disappointed to see it go,” said Diane, a longtime resident of Toronto’s Richmond Hill neighbourhood.

“And then we had Target. It didn’t meet up to the Zellers standards. I would love to see it come back. I think it would service a lot of people from different incomes.”

Others recalled bad customer service experiences, a shortage of advertised products and understaffed stores. Some expressed concern that the store wouldn’t carry locally made products.

Mark Satov, a strategy adviser at Toronto-based Satov Consultants who worked with Zellers in the past, is cautiously optimistic about the brand’s resurrection. 

“They probably have to spend a little less to resurrect this brand than to create a new brand,” he said. 

Satov added that he doesn’t think the brand has a negative connotation among consumers — but it wasn’t a successful business, which is why it was sold, he said.

“I think it’s an OK move. I’m not sure that this is going to be a home run, but let’s see.”

Others have lower expectations. While the move is meant to capitalize on consumers’ nostalgia for the Zellers brand, many will associate the company with a negative shopping experience, according to Craig Patterson, the founder and publisher of retail media site Retail Insider.

“I think people are just excited to get something that was in their lives in the past, and that could be almost anything. But I’m not sure if this Zellers move is going to be a positive one long term for Hudson’s Bay,” Patterson said. “It really remains to be seen in how it’s executed.”

“I think that there is going to be an uphill battle in developing this new brand and creating these shops and stores, as well as this entire new e-commerce division for the Hudson Bay Company, which is, again, an expansion for that company.”

Most stores closed by 2013

Hudson’s Bay launched a pop-up Zellers shop inside Hudson’s Bay department stores in Burlington, Ont., and Anjou, Que., in 2021. (Anis Heydari/CBC)

The Zellers department store was founded in 1931 and acquired by HBC in 1978.

It operated as the discount division of its flagship Hudson’s Bay department stores, with the slogan “Where the lowest price is the law.”

The store hit its peak of about 350 locations in the late 1990s, before losing ground to big-box competitors such as Walmart.

In 2011, HBC announced plans to sell the majority of its remaining Zellers leases to Target Corp., closing most stores by 2013.

The retailer kept a handful of Zellers locations open as liquidation outlets until 2020.

The company launched a pop-up Zellers shop inside Hudson’s Bay department stores in Burlington, Ont., and Anjou, Que., in 2021.

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