Politics
Running an election in a pandemic is complicated — especially when politicians are the ones at risk – CBC.ca
Across the country, election authorities are making plans to hold mid-pandemic elections while keeping voters safe. But with two federal party leaders now self-isolating after being exposed to COVID-19, just how safe might a campaign be for the politicians doing the campaigning?
New Brunswick just completed a provincial election without issues. Saskatchewan is preparing for its scheduled election in October. Elections officials have been focusing primarily on measures to protect voters — things like physical distancing, masks and disinfectant at polling stations, a moratorium on door-to-door canvassing and the end of large rallies.
On Wednesday, as the number of new cases in Canada increased again, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dismissed the concerns of those who say holding an election in the middle of a pandemic is reckless.
“I think it’s irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible,” he said. “Our country and our institutions are stronger than that and if there has to be an election, we’ll figure it out. I don’t think that’s what Canadians want, I don’t think it’s what opposition parties want and it’s certainly not what the government wants.”
Watch: Prime Minister Trudeau on the prospects for a fall election
But the last few days have demonstrated how the best-laid plans of politicians and party strategists can always be upended by COVID-19.
On Tuesday, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet announced he would get tested and was self-isolating after his wife, Nancy Déziel, tested positive for the coronavirus. Members of his caucus are also self-isolating after a staff member tested positive.
On Wednesday, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole announced that he and his family were self-isolating after a staff member with whom he had travelled tested positive for the disease.
It’s now possible that the leaders of the two largest opposition caucuses in the House of Commons will not be in Parliament when the speech from the throne is read next week. They could even miss being there in person for the all-important confidence vote following the speech that could trigger a general election.
MPs have had the capability to both address Parliament and vote remotely since the spring, so O’Toole and Blanchet will still have their say.
But what if they’d been diagnosed on the campaign trail?
Two weeks is the length of time recommended by public health authorities for self-isolation after exposure to COVID-19. In a five-week election campaign, two weeks is an eternity.
Politicians: a high-risk population?
Voters might not be the ones we have to worry about. Already, three of the five major party leaders are known to have been near someone with COVID-19 at various points in time. Trudeau self-isolated in March after his wife, Sophie Grégoire-Trudeau, tested positive.
Politicians travel widely and meet with lots of different people, so perhaps it’s not surprising they face a higher risk of exposure. But politicians also haven’t always been the best role models when it comes to following public health guidelines.
A member of O’Toole’s campaign team posted a photo on social media the day of his leadership victory in Ottawa showing 32 people crowded together for a group photo. Only one person was wearing a mask.
Ontario’s public health guidelines stipulate a social circle of no more than 10 people, including members of a household. Outside of this circle, people are supposed to practise physical distancing and wear masks.
When New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs strode to the podium on Monday night to celebrate his party’s win in the provincial election, he wore only a full face shield. Some health authorities say that a face shield “is not a substitute for wearing a face mask as it does not filter respiratory droplets.”
On Wednesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford defended his recent presence at a crowded outdoor wedding, saying a photo of him without a mask was taken during a brief moment when he stood up.
In June, Trudeau was criticized for attending an anti-racism demonstration in Ottawa. Although he wore a mask, physical distancing was not possible in that setting and the crowd was significantly larger than the provincial limits on outdoor gatherings.
Trudeau also had to defend spending the Easter holiday at the prime minister’s official summer residence in Quebec at a time when Ontario residents were being told not to visit their cottages across the river.
Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister and former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer came under fire in July after being spotted maskless at Toronto’s Pearson Airport.
This list of Canadian politicians failing to live up to public health guidelines is hardly exhaustive. But aside from a few explanations and mea culpas, there haven’t been many consequences — unlike in Ireland, for example, where this kind of thing has resulted in scandal and resignations.
Campaigning in quarantine
There are many public health risks associated with holding an election in the middle of a pandemic. Elections officials will work to mitigate those risks but there is no certainty they will be successful.
New Brunswick pulled off its provincial election without any apparent outbreak; fewer than 10 new cases were confirmed over the course of the campaign. But COVID-19 has been contained in New Brunswick, as it has been in the rest of Atlantic Canada. Since the beginning of the pandemic, New Brunswick has seen fewer cases than Ontario reported in a single day on Wednesday.
Saskatchewan has experienced more spikes in the caseload but Premier Scott Moe is only following his province’s legislated electoral schedule. His Saskatchewan Party holds a wide lead in the polls and, barring an upset of historic proportions, is likely to win another majority government next month.
Things are more uncertain in British Columbia, where speculation is rife that Premier John Horgan will soon pull the plug on his minority government ahead of next year’s scheduled vote.
B.C. has seen a surge in new cases and hospitalizations are now at their highest level in four months.
There’s no way to know how the situation will change over the course of a four- or five-week election campaign. Horgan’s New Democrats are well ahead of the B.C. Liberals in the polls; that’s unusual for two parties that have had relatively stable support in elections since 2005.
A new spike in cases could undermine Horgan’s support, making it easier for the other leaders to accuse him of recklessness — an accusation that did not work against Higgs in comparatively tranquil New Brunswick.
No party can plan ahead for a leader being missing from the campaign trail for several weeks during an election campaign.
How do you run a debate when one or more of the leaders is unable to leave home?
How would a federal election campaign function when any politician entering Atlantic Canada has to undertake a mandatory 14-day quarantine? And how would long-suffering voters react to a party leader who ignored that rule?
Ottawa’s chief medical officer has described how a single case of COVID-19 at a cottage mushroomed into 40 cases across the city. What would happen if a leader’s visit to a riding is revealed to be at the root of a new outbreak? An entire region of the country might have to be written off by that party on election night.
The complications and problems involved in running an election during a pandemic are not limited to mask availability, the amount of space available for voting in school gymnasiums or how much sanitizer election authorities can get their hands on.
Political leaders in Ottawa, B.C. and elsewhere in the country mulling an early election call have much to think about. They might want to think about it twice.
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David Pecker, convivial, accommodating and as bright as a button, sat in the witness stand in a Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday and described how power is used and abused.
“What I would do is publish positive stories about Mr. Trump,” the former tabloid hegemon and fabulist allowed, as if he was sharing some of his favorite dessert recipes. “And I would publish negative stories about his opponents.”
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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland don’t have a lot in common. But they do share at least one view: that governments could play a bigger role directing pension investments to the benefit of domestic industries and economic priorities.
Canadians, no matter who they vote for, should be worried that these two political heavyweights share any common ground in this regard.
It became clearer in the federal budget last week as Ottawa appointed former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz to lead a working group to explore “how to catalyze greater domestic investment opportunities for Canadian pension funds.” The group will examine how Canadian pension funds can spur innovation and drive economic growth, while still meeting fiduciary and actuarial responsibilities.
This idea has been in discussion since it was highlighted in the fall economic statement. In March, dozens of chief executives signed an open letter urging federal and provincial finance ministers to “amend the rules governing pension funds to encourage them to invest in Canada.”
Rewind to last fall, and it was Alberta’s plans that were dominating controversial pension discussions. As Ms. Smith championed Alberta going it alone, Canadians (including Albertans) were dumbfounded by her government’s claim the province could be entitled to 53 per cent of Canada Pension Plan assets – $334-billion of the plan’s expected $575-billion by 2027. The Premier has made the argument that starting with this nest egg, and with the province’s large working-age population, a separate Alberta plan could provide more in the way of benefits to seniors with lower premiums.
The main point of contention between the Smith government and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals has been what amount Alberta would take, should it exit the Canada Pension Plan. All parties are now waiting on Ottawa’s counter assessment; the Office of the Chief Actuary will provide a calculation sometime this fall.
But lost in this furious debate over that dollar amount is Ms. Smith’s desire to see the province have a say in how the pension contributions of Albertans are invested. The Premier has long expressed frustration that Canadian pension funds were being influenced by fossil-fuel divestment movements, and has suggested a separate Alberta pension plan could be a counterweight to this.
In addition, a key part of the promise for many supporters of the Alberta pension plan idea – including former premier Jason Kenney and pension panel chair Jim Dinning – has been the benefits that would accrue to the province’s financial services sector.
But just as the UCP government might see the potential of using the heft of pension assets to bolster the province’s energy sector, or to spur white-collar jobs in Calgary, the federal Liberals would like see more pension dollars directed toward Canadian AI, digital infrastructure and housing. These are some of the areas Ms. Freeland has directed Mr. Poloz’s working group to focus on.
Some would deem Mr. Freeland’s goals admirable. Tax dollars are already flowing to these sectors. It comes at a time of increasing concern about the housing crunch, Canada’s weak GDP numbers, and the fact that Canada’s economy is being carried along by strong population growth.
But many Canadians are already concerned with government priorities and federal spending. Many more would balk at governments picking winning industries with pension contributions. And governments change. A Conservative government, for instance, might have very different industries in mind for its own pension-fund working group – say, for instance, to make sure Canada doesn’t cede oil market share to Venezuela or the United States.
This pension working group is a convenient sweetener for a business community that has in many ways soured on this Liberal government. It comes at a moment when Ottawa is facing pushback – from technology entrepreneurs to doctors – to its proposed capital-gains tax hike.
It doesn’t appear Ottawa wants to go as far as recreating the CPP in the image of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, which has a formal mandate that includes contributing to the province’s economic development. And this isn’t to say there’s such a thing as complete neutrality in pension management now. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board makes decisions open to debate and criticism. It should hear what governments and industry have to say, and setting up a couple of regional offices, beyond Toronto, could be helpful.
But if pension plans are formally burdened with policy imperatives from politicians, it could distract from the main goals of reasonable premiums and retirement security for Canadians. It could see the prioritization of being re-elected over returns. The regional and sectoral tug-of-wars over the cash would be never-ending.
There’s good reason to fear what an Alberta government would do should it take control of its citizens’ pension wealth. The same is most definitely true for Ottawa.
Politics
Politics Briefing: Saskatchewan residents to get carbon rebates despite province's opposition to pricing program – The Globe and Mail
Hello,
The federal government will continue to deliver the carbon rebate to residents of Saskatchewan despite the province’s move to stop collecting and remitting the levy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said today.
In January, Saskatchewan’s Crown natural gas and electric utilities removed the federal carbon price from home heating bills, a move that the government says will improve fairness for its residents in relation to the other provinces.
But Trudeau told a news conference in Saskatoon today that payments to residents won’t stop and that the Canada Revenue Agency has ways of ensuring money owed to them is eventually collected. He said he has faith in the “rigorous” quasi-judicial proceedings the agency uses.
In Ottawa, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault accused Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who is opposed to federal carbon pricing policy, of playing politics with climate change.
“The Prime Minister, and I think cabinet, felt that it wouldn’t be fair for the people of Saskatchewan to pay for the irresponsible attitude of the provincial government,” Guilbeault told a news conference.
The rebate is available to residents of provinces and territories where the federal carbon pricing system applies.
Trudeau was in Saskatoon to announce that the federal government is offering $5-billion in loan guarantees to support Indigenous communities seeking ownership stakes in natural resource and energy projects.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
TODAY’S HEADLINES
Motion to allow keffiyehs in Ontario legislature fails again: A few Ontario government members blocked a move to permit keffiyehs in the legislature, prompting some people watching Question Period from the public galleries to put on the scarves.
B.C. puts social-media harms bill on hold: Premier David Eby issued a joint statement today with representatives from Meta, TikTok, Snap and X to say they have reached an agreement to work to help young people stay safe online through a new BC Online Safety Action Table.
Changes to capital-gains tax may prompt doctors to quit, CMA warns: Kathleen Ross, the president of Canadian Medical Association, said the tax measure “really is one more hit to an already beleaguered and low-morale profession.”
Thunder Bay Indigenous group wants province to dissolve the municipal police force: Grand Chief Alvin Fiddler, from the Nishnawbe Aski Nation, said that after years of turmoil, the Thunder Bay force has not earned the trust of the Indigenous people it serves.
Canada Post refusing to collect banned guns for Ottawa’s buyback program: CBC says the Crown corporation’s position is complicating Ottawa’s plans for a buyback program to remove 144,000 firearms from private hands, federal sources say.
Ottawa police investigating chant on Parliament Hill glorifying Hamas Oct. 7 attack: Police Chief Eric Stubbs acknowledged it can sometimes be difficult to discern what constitutes a hate crime as he confirmed his force is investigating a pro-Palestinian protest over the weekend on Parliament Hill.
TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES
“I don’t take any lessons from the Leader of the Opposition when it comes to how marginalized people feel. I’m an Italian Canadian, who, in the 1970s, was spit on.” – Ontario Government House Leader Paul Calandra in the legislature today.
“I’ve spoken with some of my peers from all around the world. All of us would be challenged to find an environment minister somewhere in the world that would tell you: Easy peasy fighting climate change.” – Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault at a news conference in Ottawa today as international talks in the city proceed to deal with plastics pollution,
THIS AND THAT
Commons, Senate: The House of Commons is on a break until April 29. The Senate sits again April 30.
Deputy Prime Minister’s day: Chrystia Freeland participated in a fireside chat on the budget, then took media questions.
Ministers on the road: With the Commons on a break, ministers continued to fan out across Canada to talk about the budget. Today, the emphasis was largely on the budget and Indigenous reconciliation. Citizens’ Services Minister Terry Beech, with Health Minister Mark Holland, made an Indigenous reconciliation announcement in the B.C. community of Sechelt. Defence Minister Bill Blair is on a three-day visit to the Northwest Territories. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is in Edmonton to make an announcement on Indigenous reconciliation. Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne was in the Quebec city of La Tuque. Public Services Minister Jean-Yves Duclos is in Quebec City, focusing on the budget and Indigenous reconciliation. Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu in Vancouver addressing Indigenous reconciliation. Families Minister Jenna Sudds is in Thunder Bay. King’s Privy Council President Harjit Sajjan and Justice Minister Arif Virani touted the budget in an event in Coquitlam, B.C.
Vidal out: Conservative MP Gary Vidal has announced he won’t run in the next election owing to dramatic changes in the Saskatchewan riding he has represented since 2019 that will mean he will no longer be living there. Also, he noted in a posting on social-media platform X that the Conservatives are not allowing an open nomination in the riding he will be living in. “Although this is not the expected outcome I anticipated, circumstances beyond the control of myself and my team have dictated that I move on after the next election,” he wrote.
GG in Saskatchewan: Mary Simon and her partner, Whit Fraser, continued their visit to the province, with stops in Regina that included a stop at the Regina Open Door Society, which provides settlement and integration services to refugees and immigrants. Later, she engaged in a round-table discussion with mental-health specialists on issues affecting Canada’s farming and ranching communities.
New CEO for Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy: George Young is the new chief executive officer of the think tank on progressive issues. The former national director of the federal Liberal party under Jean Chrétien served as a chief of staff to several Chrétien ministers, was a senior adviser to former Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson.
PRIME MINISTER’S DAY
Justin Trudeau was in Saskatoon for a news conference on budget measures.
LEADERS
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is in Ottawa to attend a session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Edmonton, went door-knocking in the city with Edmonton Centre candidate Trisha Estabrooks.
No schedules released for Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
THE DECIBEL
On today’s podcast, Nathan VanderKlippe, The Globe’s international correspondent, discussed what has been happening on West Bank farmlands during the Israel-Hamas war. The Decibel is here.
PUBLIC OPINION
Liberals not an option: A third of Canadians surveyed by Ipsos Global Public Affairs say they would never vote Liberal in the next federal election.
No budget lift: Nanos Research says the federal Tories have a 19-point lead over the Liberals despite the release of a budget the government hoped would improve its political fortunes.
CAQ running third: Quebec’s governing Coalition Avenir Québec party has, in a new poll, fallen to third place in public support behind the Parti Québécois and the Liberals, The Gazette in Montreal reports.
OPINION
The Liberals promise billions for clean power. Don’t undermine it with politics
“In the summer of 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden’s ambition to deliver landmark climate legislation looked like it was dead – until the plan experienced a sudden political resurrection on Capitol Hill. The machinations in Washington have reverberated in Ottawa ever since.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board
The Liberals’ immigration policies have accomplished the opposite of what was intended
“In its well-meaning effort to encourage the migration of international students to Canada, the Trudeau government is turning swaths of our postsecondary education system into a grift. As a result, broad public support for immigration, the foundation stone of multicultural Canada, is eroding.” – John Ibbitson
Canada’s underwhelming disability benefit is a sign of a government out of ideas
“The Canada Disability Benefit had – and still has – the potential to be a generational game-changer. Done right, it could lift hundreds of thousands of Canadians out of poverty. But what the Liberal government has delivered so far is a colossal betrayal of the promise made to those living with physical, developmental and psychiatric disabilities: a program with a paltry payout and a limited scope, and bogged down in red tape.” – André Picard
Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop.
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