TORONTO —
This is not a bright moment in Canada’s fight against the novel coronavirus.
Nationally, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 diagnoses is as high as it’s ever been.
On Friday, Ontario announced its highest single-day total of new cases to date. On Saturday, it was Quebec’s turn. In Manitoba, nearly two-thirds of all known cases have been logged in the past month.
Even some parts of the country less affected by the pandemic are showing a resurgence in virus activity. Prince Edward Island has recorded 13 cases of COVID-19 in the past 32 days – a worrying number when compared to the 16 cases detected on the island in the previous 127 days.
All of this lends weight to what politicians and public health authorities have been saying since long before the increases began: The virus will not disappear on its own, and Canadians’ individual actions may well determine whether the second wave is manageable or uncontrollable.
There’s a message of hope buried in that warning. But there’s also the reality that many important factors are beyond the control of individual Canadians.
Here are seven reasons why the recent increases in COVID-19 activity in Canada may only be the tip of the iceberg.
HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE RISING
When daily case counts started to trend upward, there was a persistent chorus arguing that it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, because hospitalization numbers weren’t moving with them.
However, hospitalizations are known to be a lag indicator. When case counts increase, it is a week or more before hospitalizations move in the same direction.
For most of the summer, the number of Canadian COVID-19 patients in hospital was actually decreasing day by day. That’s not the case anymore. There hasn’t been a single day with a declining hospitalization number since Sept. 16. Over the past two weeks, most days have brought an increase of at least 20 patients.
The number of hospitalizations in Ontario and Quebec has tripled in recent weeks, according to The Canadian Press, while British Columbia’s hospitalization number quadrupled in September.
“We certainly are getting a gradual and steady increase in the number of people who are seeking hospital care,” Dr. Matthew Oughton, an infectious diseases specialist at the McGill University Health Centre in Montreal, told CTV News Channel on Sunday.
Many experts believe the rising hospitalization numbers are a sign that the virus is again being spread to seniors and other vulnerable groups, after a summer during which it was most active in young adults – a demographic less likely to suffer severe symptoms.
CASES ARE A LAG INDICATOR TOO
The number of cases announced on any given day does not reflect the virus transmission situation on that day.
Accepted wisdom among epidemiologists is that it takes up to two weeks before changes in societal behaviour are reflected in the daily case counts.
“We may well see the numbers at least continue, if not climb, for another week before we even begin to see a bit of a slowdown,” Oughton said.
If the numbers continue to climb, governments may decide to impose harsher measures – but it will be another two weeks or so before those decisions have any effect on the daily numbers.
THE HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE READY
When most provinces enacted lockdown-like measures in the spring, the stated reason was that they were necessary to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sudden influxes of large numbers of COVID-19 patients.
Now, case counts are back where they were at the height of the first wave and hospitalizations are also increasing – but governments clearly do not want to order businesses to close their doors once again.
As a result, concerns have been voiced by the medical community that there could be a fast ramp-up in the number of patients seeking COVID-19 care – and that the health-care sector may not be prepared for this. The Ontario Hospital Association recently wrote the province asking for a return to lockdown in the hardest-hit areas.
“Our health-care system is incredibly precarious at the best of times,” Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an assistant professor in infectious diseases as the University of Alberta,” said Sunday on CTV News Channel.
Most health-care professionals have stopped short asking for lockdowns to be re-enacted, despite clear worries about what may be ahead. A survey by the Canadian Medical Association found that more than two-thirds of community-based doctors are worried they won’t be able to obtain enough personal protective equipment to keep them and their patients safe.
Hard-hit Ontario has attempted to stem these fears, announcing last week that it plans to hire 1,400 nurses to work at hospitals and long-term care homes. However, it is not known how soon all those positions can be filled.
TESTING AND TRACING BACKLOGS
Wearing a mask is a great way to help reduce the spead of COVID-19, while washing your handsand physical distancing is a great way of protecting yourself.
But getting every single person on-board with all of those actions all of the time is virtually impossible. That’s where governments need to pick up the slack – and it has become clear through the pandemic that widespread testing, rapid processing of test results, and thorough contact tracing are the best way they can do that.
It may be a problem, then, that several provinces are finding it difficult to pull off effective testing and tracing.
Alberta recently introduced new testing criteria in an attempt to prioritize the most important potential cases. Testing capacity in Manitoba is low enough that some Winnipeggers have reported waiting in line for four hours or more, and others have driven an hour outside the city to get tested.
The worst situation of all may well be in Ontario, where the testing backlog routinely numbers in the tens of thousands, leaving some unable to get results for up to a week.
That creates another problem. The longer it takes for a positive test result to be known, the less effective contact tracing is.
Toronto Public Health, the province’s largest public health unit, announced Friday that it is now only performing contact tracing for the highest-risk scenarios – a far cry from the testing of all cases that helped some countries in other parts of the world beat back the virus.
“Ontario has lost control of COVID. I say that because we’re no longer able to do contact tracing. We’re no longer able to do testing in a reasonable period of time,” Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, said Sunday on CTV News Channel.
Oughton said he would not be surprised if other jurisdictions followed Toronto’s lead in the near future, reducing their contact-tracing efforts because there are too many cases coming in for them to stay on top of each one.
THE VIRUS IS SPREADING INTO NEW AREAS
The northern half of Manitoba is an isolated place.
Many communities are an hour’s drive, or more, from their closest neighbours. Most of the rest are even less accessible than that, because they don’t have all-season roads. Anyone wanting to enter or leave the community has limited options: an ice road if the water has frozen over, a boat or canoe if it hasn’t, or shelling out for airfare.
In other words, northern Manitoba is a very difficult place for a virus to thrive.
There were three cases of COVID-19 detected in Manitoba’s northern health region in a nine-day span early in the pandemic. Then, for more than four months, there was nothing. Not a single case. The province even put a travel ban in place, restricting non-essential travel from Winnipeg and other southern communities because of fears visitors could reintroduce the virus.
All was going well. Then came the past week.
There have been 13 cases of COVID-19 in northern Manitoba since Sept. 27. Seven of them have been traced to one family in York Factory First Nation. There is an eighth case in York Factory and three other Indigenous communities have also reported active cases.
This is the most extreme example of a new phenomenon: COVID-19 showing up in remote parts of Canada where it had not been a problem before.
Although the initial case is believed to have stemmed from an exposure outside Nunavut, the latest outbreak suggests that the virus has finally made its way to Canada’s most isolated territory.
THE GLOBAL PICTURE
Nunavut was able to avoid COVID-19 until recently by almost completely sealing itself off from the rest of the world.
Canada hasn’t done that, and that leaves it susceptible to COVID-19 arriving from abroad.
Despite a pervasive belief that the border is closed, there are a wide variety of exemptions that allow essential workers, Canadian citizens and permanent residents and their families, international students and others into the country.
More than 49,000 travellers entered Canada by air during the week of Sept. 21 to 27, according to the Canada Border Service Agency, including more than 16,000 passengers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents. Another 187,500 entries were recorded at the U.S. land border.
This is particularly concerning because Canada is not the only country grappling with renewed COVID-19 activity – and some nations are reporting numbers that dwarf what’s happening here. France and Poland both reported record high daily case counts on Saturday, while Italy and Germany hit their highest marks since April.
To this point, arrivals from abroad have not been a major driver of COVID-19 spread in Canada. Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said Friday that between two and three per cent of cases have been tied to international travel.
WINTER IS COMING
Evidence is mounting that it is easier for COVID-19 to spread indoors – especially in places where people are eating or loudly talking without wearing masks and without distancing properly.
That could be a problem as fall-like weather sets in across Canada, with colder temperatures making the idea of spending substantial time outside less appealing.
Warnings of a “long winter” have led to a surge in demand for patio heaters and other outdoor equipment, but many Canadians may find it difficult to brave the elements more than they normally would.
Pair that with indications that “pandemic fatigue” is setting in, and some experts are concerned that some Canadians may adopt risky behaviours this winter – potentially easing the path of COVID-19.
“I am concerned that there’s going to be more mingling than there should be,” Furness said. He would like to see hard-hit regions shut all bars, restaurants and gyms until the virus is better brought under control.
Dr. Brian Conway, president and medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, said Saturday on CTV News Channel, that Canadians need to brace themselves for extended isolation, even if a full lockdown never happens.
“Many people are not accepting that the old normal is gone for a long time, that we have to embrace a new normal,” he said.
“We need to get messaging out there so that people feel good about making the right decision, and the numbers go down.”
TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.
Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.
Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.
Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.
In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.
“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.
Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.
A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.
“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.
Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.
“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.
“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
