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‘Something’s gotta give’ for Canadian real estate stocks, says BMO analyst

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

BMO Capital Markets analyst Jenny Ma says “something’s gotta give” in the domestic real estate sector,

“2023 Outlook: Something’s Gotta Give … We approach 2023 with caution as the adjustment process continues and the spectre of a recession looms. 2022 was a tumultuous year for real estate investors, as illustrated by the year-to-date total return of negative 15 per cent for the S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index. Although the sector has rebounded strongly following material down-years in the past (e.g., 2009 and 2021), we believe investors’ expectations should be more tempered in 2023. Valuation screens attractive on a P/NAV basis, but our weighted average AFFO [ adjusted funds from operations] yield spread is below the LTA [long term average]. Capital constraints and the potential impact of a recession on tenant demand are formidable challenges. Our best ideas are Boardwalk, Crombie, InterRent, and H&R”

“Valuation: something’s gotta give. Our coverage is trading at a weighted average NAV discount of 11%. This suggests an attractive entry point when compared to the long-term average discount of 0.9%. On the other hand, AFFO yield spreads (10-year GoCs and BBB Corporate bonds) are well below the long-term average, and the outlook for earnings growth through 2024 is relatively muted.”

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BofA Securities U.S. quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian argued that the upcoming recession will have different effects on markets than previously,

“Throw out the U.S. recession playbook, it is different this time. Reasons include: less smooth earnings for diversified multinationals as globalization takes a pause. Democratized investing, financial asset deflation and job losses in the upper income strata suggest luxury goods may not be defensive, and the wealth effect may be outsized. Oil companies have capital discipline, Tech companies are in regulators’ cross-hairs. Credit risk may be more evident at venture capital, private equity and long duration growth plays than at regulated banks. This isn’t just a narrative, it’s showing up in data.”

“BofA: “Throw out the US recession playbook”” – (research excerpt) Twitter

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Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Singer provided a long list of stocks that will benefit from the clean energy provisions in the recent U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) legislation,

“Recent commentary from corporates supports our bullish view that the Inflation Reduction Act will be a catalyst for acceleration in Green Capex and benefit stocks through the supply chain. The combination of IRA incentives with the wide discount in electricity/natural gas prices in the US vs. Europe is likely to lead to industrial shifts towards the US, in our view. As more companies discuss 2023 outlooks, we see increased confidence in pursuing projects to take advantage of new and/or expanded incentives, in particular for battery storage, hydrogen, renewables and carbon capture. In this report, we reiterate key takeaways from our August 30 IRA deep-dive on What’s transformational, what’s supportive, what’s underappreciated, discuss what’s new and a roadmap for next steps from corporates and policymakers, and highlight Buy-rated stocks from our analysts across sectors.”

There are too many stocks to list them all but some that are likely to be most of interest to Canadian investors include Sunrun Inc., Solaredge Technologies, Nutrien Ltd., Linde PLC, Air Products and Chemicals, Johnson Controls International, Jabil Inc., General Motors Co., ABB Ltd., General Electric co. MasTec Inc., Waste Management Inc., Vestas Wind Systems, and First Solar Inc.

“GS: stocks that will benefit most from IRA-related green capex,” – (full table) Twitter

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Diversion: “Here Are the 128 Songs That Reached Spotify’s ‘Billions Club’ This Year” – Gizmodo

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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