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Toronto real estate: Recent decline in ratio of sales to new listings has likely resulted in buyer’s market, RBC says

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It is officially a buyer’s market in many parts of the GTA as the ratio of sales to new listings continues to slide amid an ongoing housing correction, a new report from a major Canadian bank says.

In a report released on Thursday, RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue said that while “demand-supply conditions look reasonably balanced nationwide” that is not the case in many of the country’s most expensive real estate markets in Ontario and British Columbia.

He said that in Toronto, Ottawa, Niagara Region, Hamilton, London, Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley the ratio of sales to listings is now hovering around 0.40, which is the threshold below where “buyers historically have had more sway on prices.”

Hogue predicts that because of that buyers “will succeed in further reversing some of the earlier outsized price gains in Ontario and BC in the near term,” even if the slide in prices starts to stabilize nationally where the ratio is closer to 0.50.

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His report comes just two weeks after Re/Max warned that housing prices in the GTA could drop nearly 12 per cent in 2023.

“It’s no surprise to see some of the larger price declines taking place in these markets,” Hogue said of Ontario and BC. “Since the peak earlier this year, the MLS Home Price Index has plummeted in Cambridge (-21 %), London (-19%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-19%), Brantford (-18%), Hamilton-Burlington (-18%), Kawartha Lakes (-17%), Barrie (-17%), Chilliwack (-16%) and the Fraser Valley (-13%). Property values also fell markedly in the GTA (-12%) and to a lesser extent in the Greater Vancouver Area (-6 %).”

The average price of a home across all property types in the GTA peaked at $1,334,062 in February but has fallen by approximately 19 per cent since then amid an aggressive campaign by the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates.

In his report, Hogue said that while the slowing of the pace of price declines in recent months is likely a sign that the “market downturn has run most of its course” its unlikely that things will “heat up again in short order,” especially in costlier markets in Ontario and BC.

“Higher interest rates and stretched affordability will continue to challenge buyers for some time. This will keep activity quiet for a while longer even if it stabilizes near current levels. We think benchmark prices will keep trending lower until spring,” he warned.

The latest report from RBC comes after the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates for a seventh consecutive time earlier this month.

The central bank has indicated that it will be closely studying inflation and employment data going forward and may be at or close to the end of its rate hiking cycle.

But most experts agree that the cost of borrowing is, nonetheless, likely to remain elevated for at least 2023.

The Bank of Canada’s key overnight lending rate is already at its highest point since 2008.

“We think the massive interest rate hikes and loss of affordability over the past year will hold back buyers into 2023, keeping prices on a downward trajectory in the near term,” Hogue said.

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Former HGTV star from Los Gatos sentenced in $10M real estate fraud case – CBS San Francisco

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LOS GATOS – A Los Gatos man who starred in a real estate reality show was sentenced to jail and ordered to pay back nearly $10 million to his victims after being convicted of real estate fraud, prosecutors said Tuesday.

According to Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen’s office, 58-year-old Charles “Todd” Hill received a four-year sentence. Hill starred in the HGTV show “Flip It to Win It“, which featured teams buying dilapidated homes and fixing them, before selling them for a profit.

The show aired in 2014.

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Prosecutors said Hill was convicted in Sep. 2023 after admitting to grand theft with aggravated white-collar enhancements for committing real estate and financial fraud against 11 victims. Hill was indicted in 2019 following an investigation by the DA’s office.

“Some see the huge amount of money in Silicon Valley real estate as a business opportunity,” Rosen said in a statement. “Others, unfortunately, see it as a criminal opportunity – and we will hold those people strictly accountable.”

According to the DA’s office, Hill engaged in “multiple fraud schemes”, with some scams dating back before the HGTV show.

Prosecutors said in one instance, he diverted construction money for his personal use. In another, Hill created a Ponzi scheme by taking money intended to buy homes from an investor and spending it on a lavish lifestyle instead. He hid the theft by creating false balance sheets and used fraudulent information to obtain loans, according to prosecutors.

In a third case, prosecutors said an investor who provided $250,000 to remodel a home toured the property, only finding it to be a “burnt down shell” with no work performed.

Hill had used the money on a rented apartment in San Francisco along with spending on hotels, vacations and luxury cars, prosecutors said.

In addition to jail time, Hill was ordered to pay back $9,402,678.43 in restitution and serve 10 years probation. Hill has been remanded into custody, the DA’s office announced.

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Unlocking success in real estate with Glenn Zdrill – paNOW

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Since Zdrill is well versed in all aspects of the real estate industry, you’ll have answers to questions before you even think to ask them – like, “How does mortgage loan insurance work?” or “How much will I need for closing costs?”

“Closing costs typically range from 1.5 to four per cent of the home’s purchase price and include things like legal and administrative fees, your home inspection, appraisal fees and more. So, you need to budget for this. Its my job to make sure you’re asking all of the right questions and I’m giving you the information you need to make informed decisions.”

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As a licensed realtor with RE/MAX P.A. Realty, Zdrill has the option to show any property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) database. He prides himself on understanding the market and current trends including property prices and the community.

“Prince Albert continues to have a lot of things happening with the construction of the new hospital, swimming pool and rinks. When I got into real estate over a year ago, I believed Prince Albert was a community on the verge of a boom and we’re starting to see that come to fruition.”

Selling or buying a home involves a multitude of moving parts, from negotiations to closing procedures and Zdrill is committed to helping his clients navigate the complexities with confidence.

Contact Glenn Zdrill through the RE/MAX P.A. Realty office at 2370 – Second Ave. W or give him a call at 306-961-5767.

*Please note, this article is not intended to solicit any properties already listed for sale.

**This content was created by paNOW’s commercial content division.

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Ontario regulator freezes assets of unlicensed builder

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The extraordinary measures Ontario’s new homes regulator is taking to deal with a Toronto builder with a history of sanctions highlight the challenge posed by unlicensed builders.

On March 19, the Home Construction Regulatory Authority (HCRA) froze the assets of Albion Building Consultant Inc. Court documents said that an investigation found evidence that the company took money for as many as 53 separate homes in Toronto it did not have the proper licences to build or sell.

The number of homes allegedly illegally built by Albion is several times larger than previously believed, which the HCRA said prompted it to invoke rarely used powers.

The freezing of assets was not punitive, but “to hold any purchaser funds in trust … to prohibit [Albion] from transferring any assets [and] to preserve the deposits for the benefit of homebuyers,” said Wendy Moir, the HCRA’s chief executive officer and registrar.

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Ontario’s new home regulations are split between two delegated authorities, HCRA and Tarion. HCRA, which was launched in 2021, licenses builders and polices their conduct. Tarion approves the number of homes a builder can enroll in its home warranty program, an insurance pool that protects new home deposits and serves as a backstop for builder defect complaints.

If homes are built or sold without licences, they cannot be enrolled in the Tarion program, limiting the buyers’ recourse in the event of defaults by the builder.

“The HCRA is taking appropriate action to protect the public and send a clear message to the industry that those who act unlawfully or unethically will be held accountable,” said Ms. Moir.

The principals of Albion – Zamal Hossain and his wife Farida Haque – have already been convicted four times for regulatory offences related to 16 homes built without licences between 2016 and 2022. But in a search warrant application the HCRA filed on Feb. 20 with the Ontario Court of Justice, the agency outlines dozens of other new-build homes Albion is alleged to have sold or constructed. Those allegations have yet to be proven in court.

The warrant is only the second one the relatively new agency has served. It allowed investigators to comb through Albion’s office at 3028 Danforth Ave. in Toronto for any records of contracts and agreements with buyers about the homes, contracts with trades and subtrades, contact information for the new home purchasers and any correspondence between Albion and purchasers about the new homes.

“We got a lot of information from them – a van full of documents,” said Ms. Moir. “We have hundreds of documents to go through,” she said. “This is one of our largest investigations.”

Albion’s business has been to tear down a single detached home, split the lot and then construct two new homes on the old site. The HCRA warrant suggests the majority of the 53 suspected unlicensed homes are lot-splits located mainly in Scarborough. It’s unclear as yet how many homes the company actually completed.

In the past, Tarion extended a licence to build homes to Mr. Hossain and Albion, but limited the number of new homes he was allowed to enroll into its insurance program.

The evidence HCRA submitted for the search warrant suggests that the actual number of unlicensed homes built by Albion was several times higher than Mr. Hossain admitted.

Mr. Hossain didn’t respond to requests for comment for this story, but in 2023 he offered this comment to The Globe on his previous convictions: “Yes I broke the law. I did the house without the Tarion [new home warranty]. … I didn’t murder anybody.”

According to Ms. Moir, there’s no clear tally of how many unlicensed builders there are in the province. She notes that it is not illegal to build your own home without a licence. But if you hire a contractor to do it, they must be licensed.

“We’ve seen an 80-per-cent increase in illegal building complaints since last year,” she said. “I don’t think it’s more illegal building, we think it’s more awareness.”

Neil Rodgers, Interim CEO of the Ontario Home Builders Association, said the Albion case puts a spotlight on the need for regulatory fixes to tackle illegal vending where an unlicensed builder takes deposits to build homes they aren’t entitled to sell or build.

“There has to be a pro-active regulatory regime,” said Mr. Rodgers. “There needs to be a system put in place that allows for what I’m going to call early warning tracking, whereby purchasers or their agents or their solicitors could register their agreements of purchase and sale with HCRA or Tarion. If there’s a pattern that’s emerging it gives the regulator an opportunity to intervene much faster.”

Mr. Rodgers likens this requirement on buyers to share details of their agreement of purchase and sale’s with HCRA or another agency as similar to mailing a warranty card for an electronic appliance, and says he’s calling on the province for consultations on changes to the requirements.

Karen Somerville of the consumer lobby group Canadians for Properly Built Homes (CPBH) doesn’t agree the burden should be on consumers to identify unlicensed builders, and points to a different screening where there’s already been pilot programs in the past: construction permitting.

“CPBH proposes that the municipality has the responsibility to notify HCRA given the information available in the building permit application,” Ms. Somerville said. “This would result in government organizations working together using information they already have to identify unlicensed builders.”

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