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Dow rises after GDP data, tech stocks drag down Nasdaq, S&P 500

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U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday as investors braced for another batch of tech earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) and dissected a better-than-expected U.S. GDP report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) diverged, with the Dow inched higher by 0.62% and the Nasdaq fell 1.63%. Tech stocks also dragged down the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which edged lower by 0.6%.

Stocks had rallied to start the week on positive signals from Federal Reserve officials concerned with the pace of the interest rate hikes ahead of their November meeting, as well as a slew of better-than-expected third-quarter earnings.

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But the rally ran out of steam amid two lackluster reports from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), which raised concerns about slowing economic growth.

Big Tech’s struggles continued Wednesday and Thursday. Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) posted a second quarterly revenue decline. It continues to be rocky. Meta stock was down more than 24% at the close.

“Look, across the board, tech continues to miss. And they’re disappointing— I think what’s most disappointing are the expenses,” Jefferies senior analyst Brent Thill told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday after Meta’s earnings.

“I think everyone wants Zuckerberg to hit the air brakes on expenditures. The fact that they’re holding headcount flat is good, but I think everyone is calling for more severe measures in terms of trimming headcount, trimming expenses to get a hold of what’s happening in this macro storm,” Thill added.

Later on Thursday, Amazon (AMZN) released earnings after the bell, reporting revenue that came in under Wall Street estimates. Amazon stock plunged nearly 20% after hours. Intel (INTC), meanwhile, cut its adjusted revenue guidance for the year.

A report from the Commerce Department released on Thursday delivered more positive news about the U.S. economy, showing the nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in July through September after recording two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated a 2.4% uptick.

“All the growth in GDP was due to a huge swing in net foreign trade, contributing 2.8 percentage points, while domestic final demand rose only 0.5%,” Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a statement.

Also on the earnings front Thursday:

  • Southwest Airlines (LUV): The airline posted results before the bell forecasting a higher fourth-quarter revenue as travel demand still holds strong.
  • Shopify (SHOP): The e-commerce firm reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss, while revenue topped expectations after adding more avenues for merchants to sell and promote their products.
  • Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): The construction-equipment maker posted earnings that topped expectations even with slowdown of sales growth in Asia.
  • McDonald’s (MCD): The fast-food chain beat Wall Street estimates for its third-quarter earnings and revenue despite currency fluctuations.
  • Shell (SHEL): The British oil major reported quarterly profits which more than doubled from the same period last year. The oil giant announced it would buy back $4 billion worth of shares and increase its dividend by 15%.
  • Credit Suisse (CS): The Swiss posted a $4 billion loss as the investment bank radically restructures over the next three years.
  • Mastercard (MA): The payments giant topped expectations with its latest revenue and earnings numbers as strong consumer spending and a return to travel bolstered the results amid recessionary fears.
  • Comcast (CMCSA): The cable-and-entertainment giant reported quarterly earnings that beat analysts estimates as it grapples with industry headwinds. The company said it added just 14,000 broadband subscribers in the third quarter and saw ad revenue decline in the wake of the absence of an Olympics telecast this year.
  • Honeywell International (HON): The conglomerate raised its full-year profit forecast, while expressing confidence in demand outlook amid economic headwinds.

Apple (AAPL) is next on deck to report earnings Thursday after the bell.

Also on Wall Street’s plate was Twitter’s drama-filled acquisition deal. Elon Musk paid a visit to Twitter’s headquarters ahead of his Friday deadline as banks have started to send $13 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. The move indicates that the deal is on track to close.

“The $44 billion price tag for Twitter will go down as one of the most overpaid tech acquisitions in the history of M&A deals on the Street in our opinion,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients. “With fair value that we would peg at roughly $25 billion, Musk buying Twitter remains a major head scratcher that ultimately he could not get out of once the Delaware Courts got involved.”

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4% after hitting 4.291% on Monday. A gauge of the dollar gained following two consecutive days of declines.

In the energy market, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose 1.13% to trade at $96.77 a barrel.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.0%, the highest level since 2008. The ECB expects to increase the pace of interest rates over the next meetings.

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Canada's jobs market ekes out another gain in November as wages rise – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Workers inspect lumber at West Fraser Pacific Inland Resources sawmill in Smithers, British Columbia, Canada February 4, 2020. REUTERS/Jesse Winter

Statistics Canada reported the latest jobs report for November on Friday. REUTERS/Jesse Winter

Canada’s labour market added 10,000 jobs in November, building slightly on its massive 108,000 gain from the month prior, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

The gain was driven by an increase in full-time positions. Employment rose in sectors such as finance, real estate and manufacturing but fell in construction and wholesale trade.

The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.1 per cent as labour force participation edged down.

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Average hourly wage growth across all industries remained unchanged in November at 5.6 per cent, while wages for permanent employees tapered gains to 5.4 per cent on an annualized basis.

It’s the sixth month in a row that wages have risen by more than five per cent and a key measure the Bank of Canada is watching as it tries to head off a wage-price spiral.

“A host of wage metrics suggest that Canadian wage growth is either stabilizing or decelerating,” Royce Mendes, managing director at head of macro strategy at Desjardins, said in a note.

“As a result of the only modest gain in headline employment and the absence of any signs of accelerating wage growth, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates just 25bps next week.”

However, other economists are still betting on a half-point hike from the central bank.

“Over the past 6 months, the Canadian labour market has largely stood still, with average gains of just over 4K a month. However, given still strong wage growth, the composition of job gains in November (mainly private sector and full-time), and the low unemployment rate, this report supports our view that the Bank of Canada will increase rates by 50 bps next week, before pausing in 2023,” Karyne Charbonneau, the executive director of economics at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note.

The small gain in employment comes as economic growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected.

GDP grew 2.9 per cent on an annualized basis in the three-month period. While it marked a slowdown compared to the previous quarter, the headline number was significantly stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast in its latest Monetary Policy Report, where it predicted growth to stall through the end of this year and into 2023.

Michelle Zadikian is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @m_zadikian.

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Kelowna unemployment rate rises for third consecutive month – Kelowna News – Castanet.net

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Central Okanagan’s unemployment rate jumped in November, marking the third consecutive month it has increased.

Statistics Canada on Friday reported Kelowna’s metropolitan area had a jobless rate of 4.9% last month, which was up from 4.3% in October and 4.1% in September. The region’s unemployment rate hit a nearly three-year low of 3.9% in August but is now on the way back up.

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Kelowna’s labour force, which is all members of the population who are able to work, dropped by 1,200 people in November, but the number of those actually working fell by 1,900.

It was a different story in the Thompson Okanagan region as a whole, however, as the unemployment rate dipped to 4.5% from 4.9% last month.

The national jobless mark fell to 5.1% in November from 5.2% in October, and the country gained 10,000 jobs over the month’s 30 days. Canada added 108,000 jobs in October.

“The main overriding feature of today’s report was that you were continuing to gain jobs in Canada,” TD director of economics James Orlando said Friday. “If you add up just the number of jobs gained (in) November and October, it’s pretty substantial.”

Employment rose in several industries in November, including finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, manufacturing and in information, culture and recreation, while it fell in construction as well as wholesale and retail trade.

Statistics Canada also noted in its report that the employment rate among core-aged women aged 25 to 54 hit 81.6% in November, a record high in comparable data going back to 1976.

Canada’s labour market has remained remarkably strong despite signs of an economic slowdown. The unemployment rate fell to a record-low of 4.9% in the summer and has edged up only slightly since then.

“The economy is clearly still doing very well,” Orlando said. “When you look at the labour market, you have not seen a slowdown.”

— with files from The Canadian Press

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Oil Analysts Are More Divided Than Ever – OilPrice.com

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Oil Analysts Are More Divided Than Ever | OilPrice.com

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Oil

1. Oil Analysts Diverge Ahead of OPEC Meeting

– OPEC+ will meet this Sunday to discuss its production targets for January 2023, amidst a widening discrepancy between oil market watchers as to what we should be expecting next year.

– As things stand currently, it is only the US Department of Energy’s EIA that sees OPEC+ pumping more oil in H1 2023, others indicate the oil group should either keep targets as they are or cut further.

– With outright prices bouncing back from the lowest levels seen this year and even WTI swinging back above $80 per barrel, the current consensus is that OPEC+ will roll over its targets.

– Confirming that forecasts have become inherently political, the IEA’s global oil demand growth for 2023 stands at a mere 1.7 million b/d whilst OPEC expects 2.55 million b/d.

2. Ukraine War to Shrink Russian Upstream Investment

– After Russian oil companies invested $45 billion into upstream projects across the country last year, this year is poised to see the lowest investment activity in years as companies postpone FIDs.

– Greenfield investments have tumbled 40% year-on-year to $8 billion, and even that is mostly coming from previous commitments such as gas production going into Power of Siberia-1 or Vostok Oil.

– Russia’s two largest energy companies, the oil giant Rosneft and the gas giant Gazprom, have seen marginal declines in capital spending this year, coming in at $12.9 billion…

1. Oil Analysts Diverge Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Oil

– OPEC+ will meet this Sunday to discuss its production targets for January 2023, amidst a widening discrepancy between oil market watchers as to what we should be expecting next year.

– As things stand currently, it is only the US Department of Energy’s EIA that sees OPEC+ pumping more oil in H1 2023, others indicate the oil group should either keep targets as they are or cut further.

– With outright prices bouncing back from the lowest levels seen this year and even WTI swinging back above $80 per barrel, the current consensus is that OPEC+ will roll over its targets.

– Confirming that forecasts have become inherently political, the IEA’s global oil demand growth for 2023 stands at a mere 1.7 million b/d whilst OPEC expects 2.55 million b/d.

2. Ukraine War to Shrink Russian Upstream Investment

Ukraine

– After Russian oil companies invested $45 billion into upstream projects across the country last year, this year is poised to see the lowest investment activity in years as companies postpone FIDs.

– Greenfield investments have tumbled 40% year-on-year to $8 billion, and even that is mostly coming from previous commitments such as gas production going into Power of Siberia-1 or Vostok Oil.

– Russia’s two largest energy companies, the oil giant Rosneft and the gas giant Gazprom, have seen marginal declines in capital spending this year, coming in at $12.9 billion and $10.4 billion, respectively.

– At the same time, future LNG projects such as Novatek’s Arctic LNG-2 might be delayed for five to six years longer than previously assumed due to a lack of liquefaction technologies.

3. Europe Confronts First Cold Spell

Europe

– Following an unseasonably warm autumn, Europe is now bracing for colder-than-average temperatures in December as a double-blocking pattern in the Arctic will bring weeks of chill.

– Scandinavia, Northern, and Western Europe will be the most impacted regions, marking the first real test of European gas inventories this winter, with stocks still around 94% full.

– Power prices in Scandinavian countries were the first to react, with the Nordic daily rate surging 8% in just one day to almost €375 per MWh, the highest since September.

– European spot gas prices have seen some strengthening earlier this week, although they remain on par with month-ago readings, trending around €140 per MWh.

4. Lack of Dual-Use Units Limits Gas Switching

Gas

– As the coming Arctic wave is pushing natural gas prices in Europe up again, the continent’s industry at large has hit the limits of gas-to-oil switching that could allow the generation of power from diesel or fuel oil.

According to the IEA, gas-to-oil switching in Europe might rise to 450,000 b/d in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, double of what it used to be a year ago when gas prices were four times cheaper.

– The switching capacity of the European industry is assessed at a mere 2-3% of installed capacity or around 2 GW, with most of it located in Italy, Germany, and Spain.

– Fuel oil used to be a huge source of power generation in the early 2000s with some 1 million b/d of installed capacity, but now those volumes have shrunk sixfold to 150,000 b/d.

5. China’s Decarbonization Is Around the Corner

China

According to Rystad Energy, China is developing more renewable energy capacity than any other country in the world to fulfill its pledge of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060.

– China’s power generation is still dominated by coal, accounting for some 58% of all electricity and totaling 1,115 GW in capacity, but non-emitting energies have been making huge inroads.

– Current developments suggest China will ramp up its solar PV and wind capacity to almost 2,000 GW by 2030, tripling it over the course of the upcoming seven years as the LCOE of a solar plant dropped below $50 per MWh.

– China’s share in the manufacturing of solar panels stands around 85%, implying the sourcing of wafers and polysilicon will be domestic, buoying relevant industries as well.

6. Despite Headwinds, Saudi Arabia Is the Real Winner of 2022

Saudi Arabia

– Saudi Arabia is expected to post a budget surplus of $25 billion this year, the first in more than a decade, fuelled by a robust 8% increase in the Middle Eastern kingdom’s real GDP.

– Boosted by higher production from Saudi Aramco and elevated oil prices for most of this year, the ramp-up in fiscal spending now will push the budget breakeven lower next year, to $76 per barrel.

– Despite the bountiful windfall, Riyadh has many unforeseen issues it must settle, such as the country’s sudden bank liquidity issue as the interbank offered rate (Saibor) soared to 6% recently.

– This has prompted the Saudi central bank to intervene, seeking to cool down the aggressive loan expansion amidst the country’s rapid economic growth.

7. Copper Strength Is Back

Copper

– Amidst widespread Chinese protests and China’s purchasing managers index (PMI) coming in at the lowest reading since March 2022, copper prices continue their spectacular surge.

– The three-month LME copper contract moved to 8,220 per metric ton this week, setting it on track to soar 10% in November, the first monthly gain in eight months and the biggest since April 2021.

– Most of the positive momentum for copper has been coming from shifting expectations in Chinese growth, with the market seeing the protests as paving the way for further Covid easing.

– China is the largest consumer of copper globally and still relies on imports for 25% of its needs, prompting new calls from Chinese miners to launch new rounds of ore prospecting in the country.

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