Real eState

Storm only just beginning in the real estate investment market

Published

2 months ago

December 12, 2022

Megan Johnson

From an investment standpoint, there are some sizable cracks finally starting to appear in the real estate sector that could easily turn into the biggest risk in 2023. Photo by Tyler Anderson /National Post

A portfolio manager’s job is to always flush out risks and factor them into the investment decision-making process, though year-end is naturally a time to look back and ahead.

Looking at things from a risk-per-unit-of-return basis has served us very well in markets such as the current one. With that in mind, here are three areas you may want to keep a very close eye on along with what we think are some much better alternatives.

Private real estate equity and debt markets

We think the storm is only just beginning in the real estate market and it could wreak havoc once this year’s rate hikes fully kick in and people wake up to the reality that we may not be going back to pre-2022 levels.

For example, Toronto housing market sales in November collapsed by 49 per cent from a year ago, and yet the composite benchmark price was only down 5.5 per cent during the same time frame.From an investment standpoint, there are some sizable cracks finally starting to appear in the sector that could easily turn into the biggest risk in 2023.

For example, Romspen Investment Corp. recently announced it will “temporarily defer payment” of redemptions from its $2.8-billion Romspen Mortgage Investment Fund. Starlight Group Property Holdings Inc., which owns $25-billion worth of apartment buildings and multifamily properties in Canada and the United States, just announced it is halting monthly payouts from two funds and has also started gating investor withdrawals.And, even more notable, Blackstone Inc.’s US$69-billion real estate fund started limiting withdrawals last week. We read that the fund was somehow able to post a net 9.3-per-cent return over the first three quarters of the year while publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) dropped 20 to 30 per cent in value. It isn’t a surprise that investors would cash in at a gain while comparable public market investments are down considerably.

There is a lesson in here for investors: if the net asset value of your fund has not moved, hit the sell button before the gates go up.If you want to stay invested in the sector, look at public REITs that are marked to market and trading at huge discounts to last year. You can also replace your exposure with structured notes, which in many cases have yields exceeding what you were earning in private real estate or private mortgages, but with liquidity and downside protection.

Technology stocks

One of the most interesting trades we’ve been following is the Nasdaq versus 20-plus-year Treasuries — via the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 and iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded funds — as they’ve been moving in unison all year. Both are down approximately 29 per cent over the past 12 months.

We’ve noticed that many investors don’t seem to realize technology equities have duration exposure (sensitivity to interest rates) given the timing of their companies’ cash flows as well as dependence on ultra-low rates and cost of capital to fuel their growth.For those looking to position around a reversal of interest rates or a so-called U.S. Federal Reserve pivot, we wonder if long-term bonds are the safer trade between the two, because they will outperform should there be an economic recession while tech stocks will sell off.

For now, we’ve been avoiding both, but have only just begun dipping our toes in the longer-duration bond market.

EAFE emerging markets

We have a zero-weight exposure to emerging markets such as China, since we just don’t see the path to recovery given the continual starting and stopping of its economy because of COVID-19 lockdowns.

We also have minimal exposure to Europe, Australasia and the Middle East (EAFE) given their poor energy policy, more so in Europe, which has been taken advantage of by Russia, thereby putting significant pressure on their economies.

There are also the currency risks in these regions against the U.S. dollar, which continues to gain in value as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are unable to keep pace with the Fed.

We think resource-based markets such as Canada are the better alternative here due to their exposure to energy and materials. We also like the value segments of the U.S. market including health care, financials, energy and utilities.

There is always the caveat that the risks mentioned above get dealt with, but we wonder just how much is really factored into valuations.At least segments such as technology, REITS and even EAFE stocks are marked to market and are already considerably down this year compared to many private real estate and private mortgage funds that are not. This doesn’t mean these funds have a low correlation to public markets, but perhaps they have a heck of a lot more downside risk ahead.

Martin Pelletier, CFA, is a senior portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc, operating as TriVest Wealth Counsel, a private client and institutional investment firm specializing in discretionary risk-managed portfolios, investment audit/oversight and advanced tax, estate and wealth planning.

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Real eState

Irish Real Estate Returns Drop Amid Higher Interest Rates – Bloomberg

Published

8 hours ago

January 26, 2023

Megan Johnson

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Irish Real Estate Returns Drop Amid Higher Interest Rates Bloomberg

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Real eState

Bank of Canada comments offer light at the end of the tunnel for real estate, mortgage markets, experts say

Published

10 hours ago

January 26, 2023

Megan Johnson

Canada’s struggling real estate sector is breathing a sigh of relief, but it wasn’t so much the size of the Bank of Canada’s Jan. 25 rate hike as the language that came with it that was cause for optimism.

That’s because while the central bank boosted its benchmark overnight interest rate by 0.25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, its eighth consecutive increase, it also signalled it would put the hiking cycle on pause — at least for now.

“A 25-basis-point increase or no increase was what we needed, along with the kind of language … that indicated we were essentially where we needed to be” Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said in an interview. “What’s important at this stage is that we’ve clearly come to a point where interest rates aren’t going to be in the news.”

Soper said the realization that rate hikes will be stopping or slowing should draw what he called the “missing transactions” — those with the capacity to buy but who have remained on the sidelines — back into the market, though it may take some time.

Those buyers, he said, have been reluctant because they understand the link between rising rates and prices, and “they don’t want to buy a house today that will be worth less tomorrow.”

Having some price certainty will make it easier for them to enter the market, but they’ll still need to be comfortable knowing they are paying five or six per cent on their mortgages while others are locked in at two per cent.

“There’s still many, many people out there with two per cent mortgage rates. Your sister or your cousin might have a two per cent mortgage rate but you’re going to have to pay five,” Soper said. “This will harm consumer confidence until the market has more time to adjust to it.”

As a result, he said he saw a “muted recovery” in the cards for the spring.

The pause also signals a light at the end of the tunnel for variable-rate holders, according to James Laird, Co-CEO of Ratehub.ca and president of mortgage lender CanWise, even if it means another dose of short-term pain.

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Real eState

Clearview Commercial Realty’s investment funds help expand portfolio

Published

1 day ago

January 25, 2023

Megan Johnson

The former Economy Glass building on 17th Avenue S.W., is the first purchase by the Clearview Alberta Opportunity Fund, recently launched by Clearview Commercial Realty. Photo by Courtesy, Clearview Commercial Realty /Postmedia Network

After 22 years in the Calgary office of a global commercial real estate firm, Steve Vesuwalla started his own company, Clearview Commercial Realty, in 2019. A year ago, he established Clearview Industrial Fund, with all capital raised though Alberta investors.

Its success has been remarkable, with the closing of the first three funds that brought Clearview a portfolio of 300,000 square feet, comprising a 260,000-square-foot building anchored by the north campus of CDI College and a 35,000-square-foot industrial building in South Foothills

The third fund launched in 2022 resulted in a residential project in partnership with NAI Advent.

Mission 19 is a luxury 67-unit apartment block that will welcome tenants this fall, designed by Gravity Architect and being built by Triumph Construction in the trendy Mission District at 320 19^th Avenue S.W.

Last month, Vesuwalla embarked on a fourth — the Clearview Alberta Opportunity Fund — with a goal of raising a pool of equity that will allow his company to act quickly when commercial real estate opportunities arise.

“Successful real estate ventures result from being able to find appropriate investments and having the ability to purchase right away,” says Vesuwalla. “And cash is still king.”

Acumen Capital Partners handled the equity raise and the first round of financing closed last month. A second round is scheduled to close at the end of this month.

The first purchase — in cash — by the new fund is the former Economy Glass building at the corner of 17^th Avenue and Centre Street S.W. in the Beltline district.

The 11,500-square-foot building on a .33-acre site has drive-in overhead/roll-up doors, existing office and retail showroom improvements, and highly usable and accessible lower level space.

Vesuwalla is working with a restaurant group and fitness operator to take over the spaces, but the location is ideal for future development as a multi-storey commercial-residential building. That will be planned on the completion of the extension of 17th Avenue across Macleod Trail, giving direct pedestrian and vehicular link access into the Stampede grounds, the BMO Convention Centre expansion and the Victoria Park/Stampede LRT station redevelopment.

No doubt that connectivity will invite further commercial, retail and entertainment-oriented development along 17^th Avenue and in the immediate area.

Doug Johannson, executive vice-president at Clearview who joined the company in 2021, has also been busy completing some commercial real estate deals.

Explosive growth in development of commercial real estate in the Balzac area has continued with the sale of 33.85 acres on the south side of Highway 566.

Located between the successful developments of High Plains and Wagon Wheel industrial parks, it was sold by Johannson on behalf of the Abbotsford, B.C., owner to a local developer for $8.8 million.

He was also the broker for the sale of a 17-acre parcel in Frontier Park to Remington Development, and has an unconditional contract to close on the sale of a 43,500-square-foot building on Enterprise Way, between Stoney Trail and the eastern city limits.

Last year was a good one for Clearview and it has started 2023 full of confidence for even better results from commercial real estate transactions, as well as opportunities the new fund will bring.

Vesuwalla and Johannson continue to look for interesting value-added opportunities to increase Clearview’s rewarding portfolio.

Notes:

President and CEO of Bow Valley College, Dr. Misheck Mwaba, has been appointed to the board of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce for a three-year term. “I look forward to working closely with the board on strategic initiatives to address the evolving needs of the Calgary business community,” says Mwaba. “I am acutely aware of the urgent need to develop and retain a world-class talented workforce, nurture a diversified economy and grow our digital ecosystem. Mwaba is a champion of Workforce Integrated Learning (WIL), re-skilling and up-skilling, and takes pride in liaising with Calgary businesses to understand their labour demands.

David Parker appears regularly in the Herald. Read online at calgaryherald.com/business. He can be reached at 403-830-4622 or by email at info@davidparker.ca.

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