Thailand is Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy and a human development success story. At the geographic heart of the region, its security interests are myriad, from maritime security to environmental governance and peace along its long land borders. It has been intertwined culturally and economically with China for centuries, yet was a core member of Southeast Asia’s anti-communist bloc during the Cold War and maintains strong defence and diplomatic ties with the United States. Japan has a large economic footprint in the country, including in the form of Southeast Asia’s biggest car industry.
The missing ingredient is a functioning democracy. If it could get its politics right, Thailand would be an example for the rest of the region: as a democratic and tolerant nation, integrated into the global economy, supportive of the multilateral path to free trade and the free trade path to industrialisation. It is also invested in the ASEAN leadership with a solidarity that is the best hope of Southeast Asia’s maintaining its strategic autonomy in the face of an assertive China and an unreliable United States.
After a period of hope that followed political transition to democracy in the 1990s, Thailand’s politics went wrong. The populist billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra dominated at the ballot box in the 2000s and royalist oligarchs, fearing he would supplant them as the key arbiters of the political order, engineered a coup that received support from middle-class liberals appalled by Thaksin’s strongman tendencies. The military, the monarchy and conservative civil society undermined democratic rule to try ‘de-Thaksinise’ the polity for years.
The relevance of Thaksin and his politics has since abated, but the frustrated popular demands for social and political reform are again rocking the political status quo. In this week’s lead article, Kevin Hewison looks back at how, in 2020, young Thais and their values came to the fore in a mass movement that has ‘challenged Thailand’s 20th century royalism and authoritarianism, targeting former army chief Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government and the military–monarchy political regime’.
During and after the 2019 general election, the reformist billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit emerged as a magnet for the support of younger, educated voters looking for a leader who would fight for real democracy, but who didn’t carry the baggage of the Thaksinist parties. When Thanathorn’s Future Forward Party was banned by a politicised judiciary in 2019, it triggered a student-led protest movement that gained momentum even as Thailand fell into occasional pandemic-related lockdowns throughout 2020.
It’s difficult for conservatives to credibly dismiss the young Thais on the streets as rabble manipulated by a populist demagogue, as was their line through the Thaksin years. The calls for change today are led by Thailand’s future urban professional classes who see militarism and royalism as hopelessly anachronistic.
What is more remarkable is the breadth of the issues that the protest movement — effectively leaderless and rooted in online spaces — is embracing. ‘The barriers to discussing the monarchy in the media are beginning to fall, with royal wealth, power, and republicanism’ now all up for discussion, says Hewison.
The internet has been key to giving this political movement organisational and intellectual sustenance in the face of a backlash from authorities, writes James Ockey in our second article lead this week. ‘The longer unrest continues’, he says, ‘the more government leaders will face increasing pressure to resolve the crisis through either concession or suppression’.
Having tried repression throughout 2020 — to little effect — one would hope the Thai government is forced towards concession in 2021. It can have peace on the streets, and the corresponding economic benefits, if it wants it. But that will mean taking steps towards building the 21st century political system Thailand needs: a proper constitutional monarchy, in which the military stays out of politics, and in which the press, civil society and an independent judiciary — not kings or generals — discipline politicians.
As always, stability and progress will only come with reform. Thailand needs normal politics, not least because Southeast Asia needs a strong Thailand.
Note at the end of the year
Thanks to our readers and contributors for your support throughout this extraordinary year. Our special COVID-19 series has been an important source of inspiration this year. At year’s end we pay special tribute to the late Aileen Baveria, Ezra Vogel, Mekere Morauta, Dick Cooper and Sam Bateman, five giants whose influence for good within our region will last long after the milestone of their passing. All were loyal East Asia Forum supporters.
Consider registering your support for the Forum with a donation here.
May we wish you all a safe and peaceful holiday season and a new year much happier than the year that has just passed.
The EAF Editorial Board is located in the Crawford School of Public Policy, College of Asia and the Pacific, The Australian National University.
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
