Based on 2019 figures, about 78% of the global GDP of $86.31 billion is attributable to the sixteen economies in the trillion-dollar club. If we look even closer, the top five countries in terms of nominal GDP — the U.S., China, Japan, Germany and India — contribute a whopping 55% to the world’s GDP.
Here’s a look at how these five countries are poised to grow in 2020
The United States, the world’s largest economy with a nominal GDP of $21.44 trillion, constitutes one-fourth of the world economy. The U.S. economy is primarily a service-oriented economy with a 77% contribution to GDP. With the jobless rate hitting record lows at 3.5%, contribution to GDP coming from a majority (17 out of 22) of industry groups and the stock markets soaring at all-time highs, this has been a great period for the U.S. economy. However, problems linger with regards to its trading partners and Trump’s trade wars, rising debt levels, and its industrial output, among other issues.
The trouble between the U.S. and China on trade is negatively impacting not just these two countries but many others. A study by UNCTAD concluded that “consumers in the U.S. are bearing the heaviest brunt of the U.S. tariffs on China, as their associated costs have largely been passed down to them and importing firms in the form of higher prices.” During 2018, the U.S. trade deficit with China was at $419.52 billion while it was at $320.82 billion during the first eleven months of 2019. In addition, the U.S. current account deficit, “which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries,” was $124.1 billion during the third quarter of 2019 (or 2.3% of U.S. GDP).
The IMF sees U.S. GDP at 2% in 2020, and will decline further to 1.7% in 2021. The U.S. economy is set to grow to $25.8 trillion by 2024 with its GDP per capita at rising to $76,252 from the current $65,111.
China, officially the People’s Republic of China, is the second-largest economy in the world and the fastest-growing trillion-dollar economy. With a GDP of $14.14 trillion in 2019, it makes up 16.38% of the global economy. When compared on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP), China is the largest economy with a GDP (PPP) of $27.31 trillion. Based on 2019 figures, the size of China’s nominal GDP was lesser than that of U.S. by around $7.3 trillion, the gap is expected reduce to around $4.5 trillion by 2024. China is on the path to become a $20 trillion economy by 2024.
China has had trouble with the U.S. on the trade front; a series of tariffs and counter-retaliatory tariffs, among other restrictions, resulted in a trade war been the two biggest economies. To avoid further escalation, U.S. and China entered a trade deal in early 2020 which involves partial rollback of past tariffs and pause in additional tariff hikes in the first phase. While the trade deal has alleviated near-term cyclical weakness, the unresolved disputes on broader China – U.S. economic relations and ongoing structural showdown is likely to weigh on China’s growth. China is projected to grow at 6% in 2020, and by 5.8% in 2021.
Japan, the third-largest economy in the world, contributes almost 6% to the global GDP. The financial crisis of 2008-09 took a toll on the Japanese economy; it was the only major advanced economy that experienced negative economic growth in 2008 and continued to contract sharply in 2009. The impact of the sub-prime crisis that originated in the U.S. on the Japanese economy was majorly due to the severe impact on Japan’s exports. The economy has remained fragile ever since.
When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power in 2012, one of his priorities was to end deflation while ensuring fiscal discipline. The initiatives to revive the economy have become popularly known as Abenomics. Japan’s GDP touched $5 trillion in 2019 and is expected to grow at 0.7% in 2020. This is an upgrade from earlier estimates, which comes on the back of the fiscal package of $122 billion announced in December 2019. Japan’s economy is expected to expand to $6.26 billion by 2024 based on current growth estimates. Japan has a healthy GDP per capita of $40,846, which is expected to rise to $50,637 by 2024.
With a GDP of $3.86 trillion, Germany is the fourth-largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Europe. The World Bank estimates that approximately 47.4% of its GDP is dependent on the export of goods and services, which makes it vulnerable to external shocks. This became evident during the financial crisis of 2008-09, when the economy contracted by 5.7% (2009). However, ever since it has grown in each of the last ten years amid multiple challenges. In the recent times, the economy has been hit by the sluggish global trade, declines in export orders and industrial production. The continuing trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty, which have weighted on business confidence and investment scenario have further compounded the problems.
Germany is projected to grow at 1.1% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021, higher than 0.5% in 2019. By 2023-24, Germany and India would be very close to each other in terms of the size of the nominal GDP, making it a close contest for the spot of the fourth-largest world economy. Although in terms of GDP per capita, Germany ($46,563) is way ahead of India ($2,171).
India, the fifth largest economy has often been dubbed as the ‘bright spot in the global economy,’ has seen a substantial downgrade in its growth projection by the IMF. India’s growth has been impacted by country-specific issues such as stress in the non-bank financial sector, decline in credit growth, cooling private consumption, slowing industrial activity and stagnant investments. Steps such as the introduction of a goods and services tax, an insolvency and bankruptcy code, and measures to recapitalize public sector banks are being taken. However, a lot needs to be done to revive its economy, especially in areas such as labor reforms and infrastructure to ensure that India is recognized as a strong contender in the global supply chain.
A 4.8% growth in 2019, has led the IMF “to the reassessment of growth prospects over the next two years” which underpins India’s contribution to global growth. After a disappointing 2019, the IMF projects India’s GDP to expand by 5.8% in 2020 and 6.5% in 2021, on the assumption of adequate monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as subdued oil prices. Based on current projections, India is expected to become a $3.2 trillion economy in 2020 and reach $4.6 trillion by 2024. While India is the third-largest economy in purchasing parity terms, its rank drops substantially in terms of GDP per capita.
Here’s a snapshot of the trillion-dollar economies.
The rankings are based on IMF data for nominal GDP for year 2019 while growth rates are based on IMF projections released in January 2020. Nominal GDP (also mentioned as GDP) is at current prices, U.S. dollars while GDP (PPP) is the GDP based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP, current international dollar. The GDP per capita is based on nominal GDP.
The report has been carefully prepared, and any exclusions or errors in reporting are unintentional.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
New 'east-west divide' splitting north start-up economy – BBC News
An “east-west divide” has opened up in the number of start-ups created across the north of England, research reveals.
Data suggests a larger number of start-up firms are thriving on the west side of the Pennines, with significantly fewer to the east.
This runs contrary to the government’s Northern Powerhouse ambition to “level up” the North, the study said.
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said it remains “committed to the Northern Powerhouse”.
The Enterprise Research Centre (ERC) said its findings strengthened the case for better east-west rail links, and challenged the government to do more to help foster “best practice” for businesses.
The study analysed the latest available data for start-up rates, from 2018.
It found Greater Manchester’s rate was among the highest in the UK, with 58 per 10,000 population.
But while neighbouring regions including Merseyside and Cheshire also showed healthy rates, many eastern areas “lagged far behind”, with the north-east having the lowest rate of just 19 per 10,000.
Peter McDowell, of Business Durham, which supports economic growth in the region, said there was a “natural cultural tendency” for many people in the north-east to join large employers, with the region traditionally regarded as a manufacturing and an “export economy” rather than a haven for start-ups.
He said the region also struggles to retain university graduates, with many choosing to return to regions with larger urban economies.
Mr McDowell added: “This is no surprise. The north-east has lagged behind many other parts of the country. It would be the same if you compared it with North Wales, or the south.
“This is why we are working on many projects and initiatives to promote more investment and growth in the area and encourage more new businesses.”
Greater Manchester also had the highest proportion of start-ups that manage to reach the £1m turnover milestone within three years (2.2%).
East of the Pennines, start-up growth was generally slower, with the exception of the Sheffield City Region (2.1%).
The ERC has presented its findings in a meeting involving local authorities across the Northern Powerhouse area.
The government defined the Northern Powerhouse as stretching northwards from a line running between the Mersey estuary in the west, to the Humber estuary in the east.
The ERC’s deputy director Mark Hart said: “While the current political rhetoric talks of ‘levelling up’, what we’re seeing in business dynamism terms is a clear ‘east-west divide’ emerging.
“If the Northern Powerhouse is going to be a meaningful economic unit, we have to address these inequalities.”
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “This government remains absolutely committed to the Northern Powerhouse and levelling up growth across the whole country to drive productivity, empower communities and rebalance opportunity.”
Trump Administration Faces Economic Test as Coronavirus Shakes Markets – The New York Times
WASHINGTON — The global spread of the deadly coronavirus is posing a significant economic test for President Trump, whose three-year stretch of robust growth could be shaken by supply chain delays, a tourism slowdown and ruptures in other critical sectors of the American economy.
The outbreak of the virus in China has already disrupted global trade, sending American companies and retailers that rely on Chinese imports scrambling to repair a temporary break in their supply chains. Its spread to South Korea, Italy and beyond has hindered global travel. Economic forecasters say that the effects will hurt growth in the United States this year even if they do not intensify — and that if the virus becomes a global pandemic, it could knock the world economy into recession.
Stock markets have plunged this week on fears about the virus, with companies such as Apple and Microsoft among the most prominent businesses that have warned that supply chain disruptions could slow sales. Analysts said this week’s declines were on track to be the steepest since the 2008 financial crisis.
The market’s fall presents a challenge for Mr. Trump, whose presidential success has been deeply tied to the economy and a rising stock market that is now experiencing pronounced jitters. For now, Mr. Trump has publicly played down the potential economic fallout, saying woes at the aerospace giant Boeing, a strike last year at General Motors and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to slash interest rates have done more to hurt the economy.
“We have been hurt by General Motors,” Mr. Trump said on Wednesday. “We’ve been hurt by Boeing. And we’ve been hurt by — we’ve been hurt, in my opinion, very badly, by our own Federal Reserve.”
Health officials expect a spike in coronavirus cases in the United States, though it remains unclear how soon and how severe an outbreak might occur. Officials have warned the nation to be prepared for the virus to spread.
If the infection gains a big foothold in the United States, it could disrupt the economy, which has been expanding steadily with an unemployment rate that has hovered near a 50-year low for more than a year. In an extreme scenario where the virus severely hits the United States, it could keep workers at home and grind production to a halt, hurting revenue streams and tanking even highly leveraged corporations as they fall behind on debt payments. In the least severe case, the current slowdown in China could cause a short-lived growth blip.
Economists at Goldman Sachs already expect to shave 0.8 percentage points off the United States gross domestic product in the first three months of 2020 because of slumping tourism from China and trade slowdowns. But they expect a quick rebound in the second quarter that will help to make up for the downturn.
Other economists, including those at Moody’s Analytics, foresee more drastic fallout if widespread infections appear in other countries. A global recession “is likely” if the virus “becomes a pandemic, and the odds of that are uncomfortably high and rising with infections surging in Italy and Korea,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, wrote on Wednesday.
Chang-Tai Hsieh, an economist at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business who tracks Chinese economic data, said in an interview Thursday that the effects on American growth will be “huge” even in a best-case scenario with the virus. Chinese business activity, he said, is running at about 20 percent of normal levels.
“The economic consequences are, everything is down” in China, he said. “Everything is down tremendously.”
As forecasts worsen, investor expectations of a Fed cut are quickly increasing. As of Thursday, investors were betting on a March rate cut, a move that seemed highly unlikely as recently as a week ago. Many now expect two cuts by June, market pricing suggests.
Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee sent a letter on Thursday to Jerome H. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, asking for more information about whether an outbreak of the virus in the United States could cause a recession and what tools the central bank had to combat a supply shock to the economy.
Central bank policymakers said on Thursday that they were closely monitoring viral developments, though they did not yet signal a coming cut.
“It really depends on: What are the medium-term implications for the U.S. economy?” Loretta Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in an interview. “If people are temporarily staying home, not traveling, not interacting and purchasing things, that could be a short-term hit. Or it could develop into something broader — and that’s the kind of calculus you have to do when you’re thinking about monetary policy.”
But rate cuts may have a limited effect: They work by stimulating demand, which could help if consumers and investors get spooked and stop spending. But cuts will do little to restart factories and correct supply problems.
“We’d absolutely expect to see a response from the Federal Reserve, not least to shore up confidence,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, a research consultancy. But he pointed out that monetary policy worked on the economy with a six- to nine-month lag, and “it doesn’t deal with the supply-side impact of, say, one-third of your work force catching this.”
The more critical response may come from Congress and the Trump administration, which have done little thus far to script a fiscal response.
Perhaps the most important thing the government can do to insulate the economy is to stem the outbreak, keeping Americans on the job and spending. If that fails, though, fiscal responses are an option; Hong Kong and China, both hit hard, have rolled out packages to help bolster growth. Tax and spending policies might also encourage demand more than fixing supply, but they can also work more quickly than monetary policy.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, on Thursday morning called for Congress and Mr. Trump to fashion a spending bill meant to “address the spread of the deadly coronavirus in a smart, strategic and serious way.” A response should include interest-free loans for “small businesses impacted by the outbreak.”
Such a program would represent targeted relief but not an effort to dramatically increase consumer demand in the economy.
But such a plan seems far-off, if not improbable. Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress have not opened talks with the White House or between the House and Senate over any possible package of tax cuts and spending increases that would be meant to stimulate the economy in the event of a virus-related downturn. Top Senate aides said on Thursday that it was too soon for such conversations, with Mr. Trump’s allies noting the persistence of low unemployment and continued economic growth.
Michael Zona, a spokesman for the Senate Finance Committee and its chairman, Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, said on Thursday that “at this point, the coronavirus has not had a broad impact on the U.S. economy, and its effects have been limited.” But Mr. Zona said Mr. Grassley and the committee were “ready to consider appropriate tax relief responses if that becomes necessary and the extent of the problem can be determined.”
Mr. Trump’s economic advisers had already been working on a package of tax cuts intended to serve as a centerpiece of his 2020 campaign. That package, which is still in flux and probably months away, could include new tax cuts for the middle class and for start-up businesses, along with extensions of some expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. Tax experts who have spoken with the administration do not see the effort as an immediate stimulus package, but more as an attempt to build on the 2017 law and offer voters a contrast between Mr. Trump and his Democratic opponent.
On Thursday, the White House added Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, to the president’s coronavirus task force. Both officials have been working on the tax plan. The Financial Banking and Information Infrastructure Committee, chartered under the president’s Working Group on Financial Markets and chaired by Treasury, is in regular communication and is also monitoring the economic fallout from the virus.
With Democrats controlling the House, there has been little expectation of major tax legislation before the November election. There was no sign on Thursday, from inside or outside the White House, that the coronavirus had changed that.
“The bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill is that substantive tax policy is not happening before the lame duck” session after the election, said George Callas, the managing director at Steptoe & Johnson LLP, who was tax counsel to former House Speaker Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin. “I haven’t seen that change in thinking happen yet.”
The fatigued Canadian consumer's days of propping up the economy may be coming to an end – Financial Post
The Canadian consumer has been one of the unsung heroes of the economy, but the latest retail sales data shows consumption fatigue at a time when the Canadian businesses need them to open up their wallets.
Retail sales growth slowed to just 1.6 per cent in 2019 — the slowest pace since 2009, according to data from Statistics Canada. Of particular concern was that December sales were flat — a time when shops see their biggest traffic in the year.
“The holiday period didn’t really accelerate things,” said Ed Strapagiel, a Scarborough, Ont., retail and marketing consultant. He says that declines in brick-and-mortar shopping, automotive and gasoline sales dragged down the sector in particular.
As commodity prices falter and manufacturing sees uncertainty, the Canadian consumer has stepped up to the plate, driving up, among other things, retail sales over the past few years.
Canadians racked up outstanding credit card balances of more than $100 billion in the third quarter of 2019 for the first time, according to TransUnion Co. And the average Canadian’s non-mortgage debt may rise by another 1 per cent to $31,531 by the end of 2020, according to a forecast by the credit-tracking agency.
But broader economic factors are sapping consumer sentiment.
“The lagged impact of earlier interest rate hikes cutting into household spending power likely is part of the explanation, and also helps to explain why household insolvency rates edged higher last year,” said RBC Capital Market economist Nathan Janzen in a research note last week.
One potential bright spot in the retail data are e-commerce sales, which grew by 31.1 per cent in the month of December from the same time last year, to 4.6 per cent of all retail sales, a record high online market share. Given the difficulty of tracking online sales, that number could be even higher.
“What’s not captured in the Canadian data is what Canadians are spending on foreign websites. Statistics Canada does its surveys on strictly Canadian businesses,” Strapagiel said, which leaves out some online spending at foreign retailers.
Strapagiel says that the retail slowdown is a cyclical issue as the economy worsens, and that inflation and population growth should continue to push up sales over the long-term.
“All things considered, retail should be doing about 3.5 per cent per annum,” he said, describing the long-term trend, “and we’re quite well below that now.”
Statistics Canada is expected to release fourth quarter GDP numbers on Friday, which could help the Bank of Canada decide on interest rates next Wednesday.
RBC Capital Markets thinks transitory factors cut about 0.5 percentage points from annualized growth in the final quarter of 2019, slightly more than in the previous quarter.
“With underlying growth also appearing to have slowed, our Q4/19 forecast has been lowered to 0.3 per cent,” RBC said, noting that the first quarter of 2019 may see a below-trend 1.4 per cent GDP gain.
“A permanent hit to auto production following the closure of the GM Oshawa plant will subtract a couple of tenths from growth in the quarter. The coronavirus outbreak will also represent an economic headwind in early-2020.”
The retail slowdown, combined with disruptions from the coronavirus, or COVID-19, and the shutdown of rail networks, has some analysts warning the risk of recession in the Canadian economy is high.
“Auto, rail, and teacher strikes, manufacturing and retail sector layoffs, the COVID-19 outbreak and now rail blockades are all hitting an already vulnerable Canadian economy,” said Tony Stillo, an analyst at Oxford Economics. “We think Canada’s 12-month recession odds remain worrisome at 40 per cent.”
• Email: KMartine@postmedia.com
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