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This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate Defaults Expected To Triple, Price Forecasts Are All Over The Place – Better Dwelling

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Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories.

Canadian Real Estate

Bank Of Canada: Mortgages In Arrears Expected To Triple, But It Could Be Worse
The Bank of Canada expects mortgages in arrears will rise, but policy measures helped contain the surge. The BoC expected mortgages in arrears to rise 8x by the end of the year. With new policy measures like widespread deferrals, it will only rise 3x and not until Q3 2021. The lowered arrears rate allows a more orderly sell off, helping more people to dispose of distressed assets without falling into arrears. Of course, people need to actually take advantage of that by selling.
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Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise 12%… Or Drop Over 30%
Forecasts for Canadian real estate prices are coming in, and they’re all over the place. The most ambitious was from TD bank, estimating prices will rise 12% over the next two years. On the other side of the spectrum was Moody’s, which is forecasting prices could drop up to 30%. Guess which one thinks an impact to the labour market would impact prices, and which one doesn’t?
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Canada’s Debt Relief Pauses Insolvencies, But Still Biggest Year Since 2010
Insolvencies are rising to multi-year highs, but growth is slowing down. There were 141,757 insolvencies in the 12-months ending in March, up 8.7% from last year. It was a drop in growth, but still the highest level for a year ending in the month since 2010. Experts believe the pause is due to recently implemented financial relief measures, and this is just a pause.
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Canadian Household Debt Hits $2.28 Trillion, As Mortgage Growth Further Accelerates
Household debt is growing very quickly once again, but not for the reason it normally does. The balance of household debt reached $2.28 trillion in March, up 4.6% from last year. The growth is normally a sign of consumer confidence. However, this time it may have to do with the number of people no longer paying down their mortgage. Over one in ten mortgages are now on deferrals.
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Toronto Real Estate

Toronto Detached Homes See Median Sale Price Fall Below A Million
Toronto detached real estate prices are falling. The median sale price across the board fell to $858,000 in April, down 1.37% from last year. In the City of Toronto it fell to $978,000, down 6.85% from a year before. More than half of all detached homes are now being sold 15% below the benchmark price.
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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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