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Toronto, Are You Ready for Another Mayoral Candidate Circus?

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Toronto Mayoral Candidate

Given the ever-increasing number of would-be candidates making pre-nomination announcements, it does not take a mathematical wizard to predict that whoever wins the upcoming Toronto mayoral by-election on June 26th will have received at most 20% of the votes.

John Tory was not challenged by a notable candidate in the past two elections. Now with Tory out of the picture, many well-known Torontonians are taking advantage of not having to overcome his incumbency and are announcing they will be running in the upcoming by-election to become Toronto’s 66th mayor.

I estimate there will be 75-90 candidates running for mayor.

Even though Tory’s incumbency will not be a factor in this mayoral election, name recognition—the key ingredient to winning an election—will be. The importance of having name recognition irks those mayoral candidates who feel entitled to be mayor of North America’s 4th most populous city without ever having spent years visibility participating in their community or grooming themselves to become mayor. (e.g., Volunteer for a candidate running for council, join a councillor’s staff, run for council—activities to gain city hall experience and network with people who can help you.)

Most mayoral candidates are unknown and seem to believe they can simply show up on the scene and will be elected mayor of a city with a larger population than most provinces.

Money, a team, and visibility

To run a competitive campaign, candidates need the following:

  • Money (donors)
  • A team (g., communications, fundraising, canvassing)
  • Visibility

Currently, the following notable names have announced or indicated that they are considering running for mayor (NOTE: nominations open Monday, April 3rd, at 8:30 AM and close on Friday, May 12th at 2:00 PM. Hence the list of mayoral candidates will not be final until May 12th at 2:01 PM):

  1. Ana Bailão, Former city councillor
  2. Anthony Furey, Newspaper columnist and broadcaster
  3. Brad Bradford, City councillor (Ward 19)
  4. Gil Penalosa, Urbanist; former mayoral candidate (In the October 2022 Toronto election, Gil came in 2nd with 98,525 votes—17.85% of the votes)
  5. Giorgio Mammoliti, Former city councillor
  6. Josh Matlow, City councillor (Ward 12)
  7. Mark Saunders, Former police chief
  8. Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough-Guildwood
  9. Olivia Chow, Former city councillor; former NDP MP
  10. Rob Davis, Former city councillor
  11. Stephen Holyday, City councillor (Ward 2)

Based on the social media chatter I am seeing, there will be many “lesser known” mayoral candidates.

The ease of getting your name on the ballot—a Toronto mayoral candidate does not have to be affiliated with a political party; all he or she needs is $200 and 25 signatures—results in many candidates running for mayor, or city council, knowing they have no chance of winning, thus creating lots of noise and “circus-like” distraction.

When I see how little effort some candidates put into winning an election, I wonder what motivated them to run. Is it so they can state on their resume or LinkedIn profile that they ran for mayor? Do they think they will become quasi-famous? Are they just running for a laugh?

As Torontonians will soon see, as they have in past elections, most mayoral candidates are not in the election race to win but to make some sort of “statement.”

The Media is already shaping the field

Even before nominations open, the media is shaping the field of candidates for the by-election to begin controlling the narrative.

This past Saturday, the Toronto Star reported, under the headline Olivia Chow, Mark Saunders Lead in Poll of Potential Toronto Mayoral Candidates a Forum Research survey which found Olivia Chow and Mark Saunders have the most support ahead of the official start date of the by-election on April 3rd.

 

(Add to the above-mentioned mayoral candidate requirements: Being able to make friends with the media.)

Once nominations close, and it is known who the official mayoral candidates are, the media will go into overdrive, covering those candidates they deem to be “preferred”—further shaping the field—which is their prerogative. No candidate is owed media coverage.

Candidates should recognize they are no longer media-reliant to spread their message. Social media proficiency, understanding grassroots marketing, and, most importantly, going out and meeting Torontonians will spread their message. Whether their message will compel voters to vote for them is another matter entirely.

Toronto has three hot-button issues

As in last October’s election, the following issues concern most Torontonians:

  1. Affordable housing
  2. Crime, especially gun violence, and
  3. Public transportation

Holistically, Torontonians want a city that, for a mega-city (keyword), is reasonably affordable and clean, in which they feel safe and has reliable public transportation.

Toronto is an expensive city to live in—no one would argue otherwise—and is a member of the “large world-class city” club. Choosing to live in a large world-class city such as New York, Singapore, Paris, Zurich and San Francisco, cities with a higher cost of living than Toronto, comes at a price and is not for everyone. It is naive to expect Toronto to be as affordable as Saskatoon, Halifax, or Quebec City or that the mayor can control the cost of living.

In addition to affordability, a city the size of Toronto will inevitably face “big city” issues such as crime, congestion, homelessness, and stressed infrastructures. Toronto is not immune to the problems all big cities face.

What Torontonians need to ask themselves during the upcoming 12 weeks of campaigning: “Which mayoral candidate has the experience and integrity to make a full-out honest attempt at creating the Toronto I want?”

Where Torontonians are today

Torontonians, at least those who bother to vote—only 29.17% (549,305) of the 1.89 million eligible voters voted last October (I presume those who do not bother to vote are indifferent to how Toronto is run or how city hall spends their tax dollars.)—will have lots of candidates to choose from.

Torontonians should expect this by-election to consist of finger-pointing, mudslinging, and candidates making vote-bait promises—promises that cannot be kept because they are outside the mayor’s jurisdiction or are made with no intention of being kept—as candidates do whatever they feel they need to do to attract voters’ attention. This will result in voters splitting the vote among the top 10 candidates, hence why I predict the next Toronto mayor will win with less than 20 percent of the vote.

 

There is, however, an opportunity presented by this by-election.

For 19 of the last 26 years, Conservatives have controlled Toronto’s Mayor’s office via Mel Lastman, Rob Ford, and John Tory. During the other seven years, it was held by centre-left David Miller. This by-election is an opportunity for a candidate who identifies as a “progressive,” who believes that political action can improve human societies and is therefore mildly left-leaning, to become mayor. However, there is one problem which may change before nominations close: a lack of progressive candidates.

No perfect or near-perfect progressive candidate has appeared, one with the name recognition and familiarity to motivate traditional progressive voters and who can fundraise substantially and of a well-oiled campaign team. Such a candidate may yet appear. However, for now, it looks as if the candidates will either be far-right or far-left and are running to serve their political aspirations.

The mayor’s seat, by its very definition, should be occupied by someone who is a servant to the people. Yet, as if gluttons for punishment, Torontonians keep voting for career politicians and then wonder why the city’s fiscal management is influenced by politics.

Common sense and fiscal responsibility should drive the decisions made by city hall, not politics!

Consensus candidates are needed

What this by-election needs are three consensus candidates:

  1. A right-leaning candidate
  2. A left-leaning candidate
  3. The candidate Toronto needs

Candidates who want to have any chance of winning this by-election, especially given how many prominent and well-connected mayoral candidates there will be, need to adopt the following strategies:

  • Quickly mount a professionally managed and well-funded campaign.
  • Get endorsements from well-known organizations (g., Toronto Labour Council, Police Union), business and community leaders and influencers.
  • Appeal to both the left and the centre. (This is where most of the voters reside.)
  • Demonstrate a deep understanding and track record of addressing Toronto’s homeless and the housing challenges faced, especially for refugees, seniors, and youth.
  • Offer an exciting, long-term vision and platform for Toronto that addresses the three issues I mentioned Torontonians are concerned about and give compelling reasons why their experience makes them the best candidate to lead Toronto.
  • Promise to keep Jennifer McKelvie on as Deputy Mayor.

 

If all the notable people rumoured to be running file their nomination papers between April 3rd and May 12th, Torontonians can expect to witness an exciting, entertaining, and hypercompetitive mayor’s race, potentially increasing voter turnout. If a circus of political theatrics is what is needed to get Torontonians to vote, then let the circus come to town!

____________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a self-described connoisseur of human psychology, writes about what’s on his mind from Toronto. You can follow Nick on Twitter and Instagram @NKossovan

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Quick Quotes: What Liberal MPs have to say as the caucus debates Trudeau’s future

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OTTAWA – Here are some notable quotes from Liberal members of Parliament as they headed into a caucus meeting Wednesday where they are set to debate Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.

Comments made after the caucus meeting:

“The Liberal party is strong and united.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

———

“Justin Trudeau is reflecting and he’s standing strong and we’re standing strong as a Liberal party.”

“We as a party recognize that the real threat here is Pierre Poilievre and that’s what we’re fighting for.”

“Trudeau has made very clear that he feels he’s the right choice but he appreciates all of what is being said because he’s reflecting on what is being done across Canada. I respect his decision, whatever that may be.”

Charles Sousa, MP for Mississauga—Lakeshore

———

“We had some open and frank discussions. People are relentlessly focused on serving Canadians and win the next election. This was really a rallying call to win the next election.”

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, MP for Saint Maurice—Champlain

———

“I don’t know how many people spoke, well over 50 I’m sure. They came at this from all angles and now (we’ve) got to go back and process this.

“We’re on a good path.

“It was very respectful. You know, caucus has always had the ability to get into some tough conversations. We did it again today and it went extremely well. Where we land? Who knows? You know we have to go and really process this stuff. But one thing that is absolutely, you know, fundamental is that we are united in the fact that we cannot let that creature from the Conservative party run the country. He would ruin things that people greatly value.”

Ken Hardie, MP for Fleetwood—Port Kells

———

Comments from before the caucus meeting:

“There’s a — what would you call it? Some palace drama going on right now. And that takes us away from the number 1 job, which is focusing on Canadians and focusing on the important policies but also on showing the really clear contrast between our government, our party and Pierre Poilievre.”

Randy Boissonnault, Employment Minister, MP for Edmonton Centre

———

“We’re going to go in there and we’re going to have an excellent discussion and we are going to emerge united.”

Treasury Board President and Transport Minister Anita Anand, MP for Oakville

———

“I think caucus is nervous because of the polling that has been constantly going down in favour of Liberals, and there’s a lot of people who do want to run again. I’m not running again, although I already told the prime minister that. But there are people there that want to run again and they’re nervous because of what polls are saying.”

“He has to start listening.”

Ken McDonald, MP for Avalon

———

“We’re going to have a good caucus meeting. MPs should be free to air their perspectives, I’m sure they will, and we’ll come out of it united.”

Peter Fragiskatos, MP for London North Centre

———

“I have to read the room. There’s all sorts of wheels within wheels turning right now. I’m just going to go in there, I’m going to make my mind a blank and just soak it all in.”

“I’m not going to say anything about (the prime minister) until I have my say in there.”

Ken Hardie, MP for Fleetwood—Port Kells

———

“I wish there was a mechanism for it, yes,” he said, responding to whether he wanted a secret ballot vote in caucus to determine Trudeau’s leadership.

Sean Casey, MP for Charlottetown

———

“The prime minister will always be on my posters and he is welcome in Winnipeg North any time.”

Kevin Lamoureux, MP for Winnipeg North

———

“Absolutely I support the prime minister.”

Yvonne Jones, MP for Labrador

———

“When you look divided, you look weak.”

Judy Sgro, MP for Humber River—Black Creek

———

“I think Pierre Poilievre is absolutely beatable, he’s ripe for the picking with the right vision, the right leadership and the right direction for our party. The Liberal party is an institution in this country. It’s bigger than one person, one leader, and it’s incumbent on us as elected officials to make sure we put the best foot forward.”

Wayne Long, MP for Saint John—Rothesay

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.



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With Liberal election win, First Nations in N.B. look forward to improved relations

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FREDERICTON – Chief Allan Polchies says he is excited about New Brunswick’s new Liberal provincial government.

Polchies, of St. Mary’s First Nation, says he looks forward to meaningful dialogue with premier-designate Susan Holt after years of tense relations with the outgoing Progressive Conservatives under Blaine Higgs.

He is one of six Wolastoqey Nation chiefs who have filed a land claim for a significant part of the province, arguing treaty rights have not been respected by corporations and governments, both of which have exploited the land for hundreds of years.

The December 2021 court challenge has been a sore point between Indigenous Peoples and the Higgs’s government.

Eight Mi’kmaw communities are also asserting Aboriginal title to land in the province, and they say they hope to work with Holt and her team on “advancing issues that are important to our communities.”

Holt’s campaign didn’t give details on the Liberal government’s position on the Indigenous claims, but she has said she wants to rebuild trust between the province and First Nations.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Abdelrazik tells of despair when Ottawa denied him passport to return home from Sudan

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OTTAWA – Abousfian Abdelrazik told a court today about the roller-coaster of emotions he experienced during the tense days of early 2009 when he awaited the green light to return to Canada from Sudan.

The Sudanese-born Abdelrazik settled in Montreal as a refugee and became a Canadian citizen in 1995.

During a 2003 visit to his native country to see his ailing mother, he was arrested, imprisoned and questioned about suspected terrorist connections.

Abdelrazik says he was tortured during two periods of detention by the Sudanese intelligence agency.

He is suing the federal government, claiming officials arranged for his arbitrary imprisonment, encouraged his detention by Sudanese authorities and actively obstructed his repatriation to Canada for several years.

In March 2009, he made arrangements to fly home to Canada and asked Ottawa to issue him an emergency passport, but his hopes were dashed — at least temporarily — when the request was turned down.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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