San Francisco, once the crown jewel of the West Coast, is now teetering on the brink of collapse — and it seems like nobody is sounding the alarm.

The city’s housing market, in particular, has been hit hard over the past year, with prices plummeting and homeowners fleeing in droves.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon didn’t mince words when he compared San Francisco’s woes to those of New York City, calling the Bay Area “in far worse shape.”

“I think every city, like every country, should be thinking about what makes an attractive city,” Dimon told Maria Bartiromo in an interview on Fox Business.

“It’s parks, it’s art, but it’s definitely safety, it’s jobs and job creation, it’s the ability to have affordable housing. Any city that doesn’t do a good job will lose its population.”

San Francisco is failing on all fronts and in turn, its housing market is quietly crashing.

Once-luxurious properties are now listing and selling for massive discounts just to attract buyers.

Consider the penthouse at the San Francisco Four Seasons Residential, initially listed in November 2020 for $9.9 million, now begging for buyers at $3.75 million — a jaw-dropping 62% markdown.

It remains on the market today.

Homeowners desperate to escape the sinking ship are offloading their properties at losses, with many seeing their investments dwindle by hundreds of thousands of dollars in just months.

A five-bedroom home at 478-480 Fourth Ave. sold for $1.1 million earlier this month, after selling less than a year prior for $1.6 million. 

At 88 King St., a two-bedroom condo overlooking a ball park that sold for $1.12 million more than a decade ago in 2014, recently sold last month for $1.08 million.

Another two-bedroom condo at 1075 Market St., which sold in 2019 for $1.25 million just traded hands earlier this month for $675,000 — and after a price cut, to boot.

The broader trend, according to the latest Redfin analysis, is stark. Nearly one in five homeowners in San Francisco are selling their homes for a loss.

Another one among them: A rare home overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge with oceanfront views was initially listed for the first time in nearly 35 years last March for a price of $12.8 million.

After several price cuts, it took a year to sell at the fairly modest price tag $7.85 million for the area.

The commercial sector isn’t faring any better, with office vacancies soaring post-pandemic.

And the desperation is palpable, as evidenced by the recent sale of a property on Market Street at a mind-boggling 90% discount.

The building at 995 Market St. was acquired for just $6.5 million during a public auction last week.

The previous owner had paid $62 million for it in 2018.

Even retail giants are abandoning ship.

In February, Macy’s announced that it was closing its massive flagship store in San Francisco’s Union Square.

The year prior, Nordstrom had announced it was closing two of its stores over the “deteriorating situation in the area.”

The mall had been inundated with fentanyl overdoses, drug dealers and thieves.

Real estate veteran Craig Ackerman, who’s witnessed San Francisco’s rise and fall over three decades, laments the city’s potential squandered by inept leadership.

He predicts years of continued mismanagement unless drastic changes are made. However, with the current administration’s penchant for liberal grandstanding over pragmatic solutions, the outlook remains grim.

“I do think that San Francisco probably has another five to eight years of mismanagement. I mean things are a mess out here and they don’t need to be. This could all be changed by the stroke of a pen,” Ackerman told The Post.

“But the mayor — they choose to continue this ridiculousness.”

“I don’t think it’s going to change,” Ackerman added.

“They are happy waving their liberal flags and looking for a fantasy land that doesn’t exist … It’ll kill you on the way there.”

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Digital twin platform Matterport has agreed to be acquired by one of its customers, Costar, in a cash-and-stock deal of $5.50 per share that gives it an enterprise valuation of about $1.6 billion. Matterport’s tech helps companies create digital replicas of physical spaces.

Costar’s offer represents a premium of a whopping 212% over Matterport’s last closing share price before the deal was announced on April 22.

The deal looks like a fortunate turn of events for Matterport, whose shares had been trading below the $5 mark since August 2022 as the company struggled to meet investors’ expectations for subscriber growth amid a sluggish real estate market and a wider macroeconomic slowdown. Matterport’s stock was trading below $2 per share before the transaction was disclosed.

The company has been trying to improve its profitability over the past year, too, according to its 2023 financial statements. However, investors haven’t been happy with the company, whose shares have been struggling since it went public via a SPAC deal in 2021, which Bloomberg reported valued Matterport at around $2.9 billion.

Matterport’s shares were trading at $4.76 before the bell on Tuesday — slightly below the $5.50 deal price, which indicates investors may be wary of the deal getting blocked by regulators, or they may be hedging their bets to account for a possible decline in Costar’s stock, since the deal has a share-based component, too. Costar’s shares, however, are up slightly since the announcement, indicating that its investors are happy with the potential benefits of the deal.

Matterport quickly rose to prominence from its start in 2011, making 3D imaging cameras, spawning out of the Microsoft Kinect hacker scene and going on to join Y Combinator’s Winter 2012 batch. Its services gained significant traction in the real estate space despite competition from alternatives such as Cupix, Giraffe360 and Zillow 3D Home.

Digital twin technology has applications in construction tech and insurtech, but demand from real estate players is particularly salient, as the pandemic accelerated the switch from in-person viewings to virtual tours, both for commercial and for residential properties.

Early-mover advantage aside, the company’s later decisions likely played an equally important role as the market evolved. It diversified into helping clients create virtual tours even with smartphones. And the addition of AI with its in-house solution, Cortex, added more differentiation to its offering, leveraging its data to generate 3D digital twins supporting additional labels such as property dimensions.

Matterport’s leadership changed over the years. Its current CEO, former eBay chief product officer RJ Pittman, took the reins in 2018 — but its fundraising trajectory was fairly smooth. Over its first decade, it raised successive rounds of funding for a total of $409 million, followed by its public debut in 2021.

“Costar Group and Matterport have nearly identical mission statements of digitizing the world’s real estate,” Costar’s founder and CEO, Andy Florance, said in a statement.

CoStar, which has a market cap of $34.84 billion, is a real estate heavyweight that operates marketplaces such as Apartments.com, Homes.com and LoopNet (for commercial real estate). This gives it direct insights into the value that Matterport can add for its end users.

In March 2024, Costar wrote in a press release, “there were over 7.4 million views of Matterport 3D Tours on Apartments.com, with consumers spending 20% more time viewing an apartment listing when Matterports were available.” The company now plans to incorporate Matterport’s virtual tours (“Matterports”) on Homes.com.

Taking to the stage at a real estate event shortly after the announcement, Florance reportedly said that allowing home buyers to view properties with their own furniture, for instance, will allow agents to provide more value and promote their brands.

It will be worth tracking what happens to Matterport’s activities beyond real estate, such as its partnership with Facebook  to help researchers train robots in virtual environments.

The deal is subject to regulatory approvals, but this is more than an asterisk: In 2020, Costar’s attempt to acquire RentPath was derailed by an FTC antitrust lawsuit, and RentPath was instead bought by Redfin in 2021.

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As the U.S. economy has pulled meaningfully ahead of Canada’s, so too has its private commercial real estate sector, which is adjusting more positively to the post-pandemic reality.

That’s particularly evident in both countries’ privately held office property markets. While the U.S.’s is well down the path of transforming, demolishing or otherwise ridding itself of empty office space, Canada’s has practically frozen in place following a wave of markdowns in 2023. That has made valuation assessments next to impossible.

“There’s a big dichotomy, and the Canadian market so far has not corrected,” says Victor Kuntzevitsky, portfolio manager with Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. in Aurora, Ont., which holds private real estate assets in credit and equity vehicles in both Canada and the U.S.

It’s no secret that last year was a difficult period for owners of Canadian private real estate, with many pension fund managers losing money as high interest rates drove up borrowing costs, inflation increased operating costs and vacancy rates remained high or even climbed.

The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec saw its real estate portfolio decline 6.2 per cent in 2023. The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan experienced a 5.9-per-cent loss in its real estate book, while markdowns on commercial properties owned by the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) resulted in its real estate portfolio dropping by 7.2 per cent.

However, there are pockets of strength investors can look to, says Colin Lynch, managing director and head of alternative investments at TD Asset Management Inc. These include multi-family residential and open-air retail centres, as well as industrial properties, which have been steady performers following strong gains through the pandemic.

It’s a view that dovetails with other analyses of the Canadian market. BMO Global Asset Management’s latest commercial property outlook notes that the industrial and multi-family segments remain strong due to high investor demand and tight supply.

“Office remains the asset class of the greatest near-term concern and focus,” the BMO GAM report states, estimating “a timeline for a return to ‘normal’ of a least five years.”

Mr. Lynch says while that timeframe could be accurate, private real estate investors need to evaluate opportunities on a city-by-city basis.

“Every city is very different. In fact, the smaller the city, the better the office property market has generally performed because commute times are much better, so in-office presence is much higher,” he says.

He points to cities such as Winnipeg, Regina and Saskatoon, where commute times can be 10 minutes and office workers are in four days a week on average.

However, there’s also room for more bad news, with some property owners struggling to refinance expensive debt in a higher-for-longer rate environment that could force firesales for lower-quality buildings.

The U.S. and other advanced real estate markets, such as the U.K., are “quarters ahead” of where the Canadian office market is in terms of valuation adjustments, Mr. Lynch says. A major reason is much of Canada’s commercial office real estate is owned by a relatively small group of large investment funds.

“Peak to trough in the U.K., for example, declines were about 20 per cent,” he says, noting that Canada’s market hasn’t corrected to that extent, but it is catching up.

Mr. Kuntzevitsky says these private fund assets are valued based on activity.

“The U.S. market is deeper, there’s more activity within it compared to Canada,” he says. “The auditors I speak to who value these funds are saying, ‘Listen, if there’s no activity in the marketplace, we’re just making assumptions.’”

Nicolas Schulman, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager with the Schulman Group Family Wealth Management at National Bank Financial Wealth Management in Montreal, holds private real estate funds for clients and says he’s preparing to evaluate new investments in the Canadian space later in 2024.

“We don’t think the recovery would take a full five-year window, but we do believe it’s going to take a bit more time. Our conviction is, we want to start looking at the sector toward the end of this year,” Mr. Schulman says.

Mr. Kuntzevitsky says he’s been allocating any excess cash to the U.S. market in both private and publicly listed vehicles.

“The opportunity here is that you redeem your open-ended private [real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Canada] and reallocate the money to the U.S., where the private market reflects [net asset values] based on recent activity, or you can invest in publicly listed REITs,” he says.

Still, Mr. Kuntzevitsky is watching developments closer to home for evidence the market is turning.

In February, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Oxford Properties Group Inc. struck a deal to sell two downtown Vancouver office buildings for about $300-million to Germany’s Deka Group – about 14 per cent less than they were targeting.

“Hopefully, that will activate the market,” Mr. Kuntzevitsky says. “But so far, we haven’t seen that yet.”

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