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Traders Are Making A Killing In The Oil Price War

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Oil prices crashed after Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they will abandon OPEC production quotas and open the taps, and while drillers and oilfield service companies are feeling the pain, the world’s largest oil traders are eyeing huge profits. After all, volatility is a trader’s best friend.

Oilprice.com’s Alex Kimani wrote back in January that the world’s 5 largest oil traders made a killing in 2019 by trading catalysts that created worldwide supply disruptions such as the contaminated crude at the Druzhba pipeline in Russia and the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s key oil facilities in September.

While 2019 proved to be a rocky year for oil, 2020 has started off even more volatile, with the coronavirus slamming the brakes on global demand growth and the collapse of the OPEC talks leading to the worst oil price crash since 1991.

While producers stand to lose billions of dollars in revenue in what is beginning to look like a race to the bottom, the world’s oil traders are playing the trend by scooping up cheap crude and storing it to sell at a later date.

Saudis Arabia’s steep oil price cuts last weekend marked the beginning of a major contango play after Riyadh slashed prices for its April Arab Light crude contract by $6 per barrel for Asian markets, while Northwest Europe and the U.S. saw discounts of $8 per barrel and $7 per barrel respectively. The price drop that followed has led to the widest prompt contango in the last four years, with the spread between Brent crude for 1 and 2-month deliveries now approaching $1 per barrel.

Image Source: Reuters New, Refinitiv Eikon

The cheaper crude will undoubtedly lead to improving profit margins for battered Asian refiners, but most of the additional crude flowing onto the markets will directly go into storage. An oil trader in the Mediterranean region told Oilprice.com that his company among others is ‘’rushing to fill every cubic meter of storage, with everyone in the region, including Central Europe looking for storage capacity’’.

Traders are taking advantage of a unique situation that has been created by temporary demand weakness caused by the coronavirus, plus the dumping of millions of extra barrels per day by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE.

Oilprice.com data shows that the 6-month Brent futures spread now amounts to US$4.95, giving traders the option to directly lock in forward prices and make a profit.

With onshore oil terminal space filling rapidly, oil traders have started to store crude on tankers. Shipbrokers told Reuters on Tuesday that ‘’The cost of renting a VLCC, which can carry 2 million barrels of crude and can be used for floating storage, was assessed Tuesday at around $38,700 per day, compared with around $30,700 per day on Friday and $14,800 a month ago’’.

The run on tanker storage is actually a blessing for shipping companies who are reeling from the coronavirus impact on commodities and industrial products.

Seatrade Maritime News quoted New York-based shipbroker Poten & Partners as saying that “Floating storage will be profitable if the 12-month spread is higher than the cost of the vessel and the interest charges for storing the crude,” adding “We are not there yet, but the economics are moving in the right direction.”

Close to zero interest rates have been instrumental in the financing of such deals as oil traders are often taking out large loans to finance these storage deals. Bloomberg notes that Shell trading financed its 2016 contango trades with around $1 billion in loaned capital.

Looking forward, the contango could be set to deepen in the next couple of days, as Saudi Arabia asked state-owned oil giant Aramco to ramp up its production capacity from 12 million bpd to 13 million bpd, in what looks like an attempt to flood the markets with even more crude.

As the pain for oil drillers continues to get worse, oil traders are looking to bank profits.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

Source:- OilPrice.com

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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