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Traders grapple to find the bottom as Dow enters bear market territory with S&P 500 not far behind – CNBC

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the opening bell on March 10, 2020 in New York.

Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Images

We have touched an intraday 20% decline in the S&P 500 that many associate with bear market territory.  We also hit a bear market on the Dow Jones Industrial Average at Wednesday’s close. Typical metrics for a market bottom do not apply in this very unusual situation spawned by the novel coronavirus pandemic.

First off, internal indications of oversold conditions are not reliable in these kind of extreme events.  For example, we have had two days this week where 90% of the volume has been on the downside — an exceptionally rare occurrence that has usually indicated a selling climax, and a market bottom.  Except this is that rare event, that black swan, that traders have come to believe may be an exception to the rule.  Another example: The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX,  over 50  on an intraday basis for the last four days, is also exceedingly rare.  The last time anything close to this happened was at the tail end of the financial crisis, when the VIX remained over 50 for nearly two months between October and December 2008. 

Second, earnings are impossible to determine.  How many times in the last few days have you heard the phrases “stocks are cheap” and “this is a buying opportunity?”  Maybe, but this only has meaning if we have some sense of what earnings will be over the next couple quarters.  We don’t.

So what rules of thumb might work for a trading range?   Traders are increasingly looking at recession ranges for the markets.  The S&P will typically see a drawdown of roughly 13% from high to low in a typical year, but in recession conditions — which are now actively under consideration by some — the S&P will typically drop 30% or more, implying another 10% downside to the markets. 

 Is this a reasonable assessment, or should we consider greater extremes — like the great recession, which produced a decline of 50% in the S&P from peak to trough?

Investor opinions are all over the map, but Brian Belski at BMO says no.  “In my 30 years, I have endured a lot — but nothing like this fear-first + analyze later phenomenon,” he said.  “That’s why recession anxiety lacks merit in our view.  Fundamentals are at the mercy of fears, rhetoric and headlines.”

For Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, all the talk of a “bear market” is nonsense:  “A bear market is when you drop a lot, and then stay down,” he said, noting that 1987 — when the market dropped 22% in a single day in October — was not considered a bear market.  “We had a one-day drop and then the market snapped back,” he said.

Maley says he would look for a deeper correction.  He is watching the 200-week moving average, 2,640 for the S&P 500, which the market hit during the European crisis in 2011, and in early 2016.  “If we break that level, it will considerably raise the odds that this will be a real bear market and a recession,” he told me. 

What’s next?  The markets are moving on three data points:  oil; coronavirus headlines; and the content, size and timing of fiscal stimulus.  Absent any good news on these three fronts — and there was none today — markets will drift lower.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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