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Economy

Trudeau reaches out to bank CEOs for advice on economic recovery – The Globe and Mail

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, seen here on May 22, 2020, had one-on-one discussions with the heads of Canada’s six big banks for the first time since the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has reached out to the heads of Canada’s six big banks to get their reading on the state of the economy and how COVID-19 relief efforts are faring, banking sources and federal officials told The Globe and Mail.

It was the first time that Mr. Trudeau has had one-on-one discussions with the CEOs since the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic, multiple banking-industry sources say, adding that the calls took place around the Victoria Day long weekend.

The consultations with the CEOs were high-level check-ins rather than deep policy discussions, intended to take the pulse of the efforts to deal with the economic effects of COVID-19, the sources said. They covered topics such as how relief efforts rolled out jointly by government and banks might need adjusting, where bank clients are feeling pressure most acutely, and which parts of the economy may need further support to recover.

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The Trudeau government, federal officials say, has largely finished rolling out its emergency response to the pandemic and is now starting work on the “recovery” phase that will aim to salvage sectors of the economy that are most damaged by the crisis.

The officials say the government is preparing a diagnosis of the economic damage inflicted by COVID-19 and has started to determine the sectors of the economy that will need the most help in the next phase.

The Globe is not identifying the banking and federal sources who spoke about the recent discussions with the bank CEOs because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the matter. Spokespeople for Canada’s six largest banks and for the Canadian Bankers Association declined to comment.

Although Mr. Trudeau has called the bank CEOs on occasion in the past, such direct discussions are not common. In the fall of 2018, Mr. Trudeau briefed them in separate calls at a key juncture in negotiations to redraw the North American free-trade agreement.

The Prime Minister and his top ministers have been engaged in a series of talks with corporate figures, union leaders and academics to determine the country’s economic needs now that provincial governments are allowing businesses to resume operations, albeit at varying speed across the country.

Up until now, Ottawa publicly emphasized the emergency response to the short-term effects of the economic crisis, such as direct payments to workers and families, as well as wage subsidies and rent relief for businesses. Inside Ottawa, that phase was known as “contain and survive,” according to a senior federal official.

“As provinces start to slowly reopen, our goal is always to ensure that the federal government is a strong partner in the economic recovery,” said Ann-Clara Vaillancourt, a spokeswoman for the Prime Minister’s Office.

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University of Saskatchewan professor Janice MacKinnon, a former provincial finance minister, said Mr. Trudeau is doing the right thing by consulting widely with bankers and others to target the sectors that need help on the path to recovery.

“If you look at specific sectors of the economy – petroleum, tourism, airlines, agri-food – they have unique problems that are significant and longer term,” she said. “If those sectors flounder, the workers won’t have jobs to go back to.”

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Don Drummond, a former federal Department of Finance official and later a bank economist, said the uncertainty facing the country requires constant consultations between government officials and the private sector to shape future federal action.

“They are operating in a black box,” Mr. Drummond said.

He added that “the banks saved the government” by overseeing new lending programs to businesses, lowering credit-card interest rates and offering deferrals on mortgage payments.

Hassan Yussuff, the president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said he hopes that governments will ensure the safety of workplaces as the economy starts to reopen, and find longer-term solutions for jobless Canadians who have been relying on emergency benefits and wage subsidies. Eventually, he said, the Canadian government will have to step in and save the worse-hit sectors of the economy.

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“If you are simply relying on the private sector right now, I don’t think that will get the economy back on its feet,” he said. “The federal and provincial governments will have to collaborate really strongly and they will have to spend money.”

Finance Minister Bill Morneau held weekly calls with bank CEOs starting in mid-March. He will soon launch consultations on the future of the 75-per-cent wage subsidy.

“We will soon consult with key business and labour representatives over the next month on potential adjustments to the program to incentivize jobs and growth, including the 30-per-cent revenue decline threshold,” said Pierre-Olivier Herbert, a spokesman for Mr. Morneau.

Other ministers involved in consultations on the federal role in the economic recovery include Treasury Board President Jean-Yves Duclos, who has been speaking with business leaders and academics.

“As much as our focus is currently set on helping each and every Canadian get through these challenging times, as a government, we also have a duty to look ahead,” said Karl Sasseville, a spokesman for Mr. Duclos.

Banks have been in close and frequent contact with policy makers to co-ordinate the response to COVID-19. That has primarily been through Mr. Morneau and staff at the Department of Finance, as well as officials at the country’s banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, and at the Bank of Canada.

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Globe health columnist André Picard examines the complex issues around reopening schools and businesses after the coronavirus lockdown. He says whatever happens as provinces reopen, there’s also a second wave of COVID-19 illnesses looming in the fall. André was talking via Instagram Live with The Globe’s Madeleine White.

Sign up for the Coronavirus Update newsletter to read the day’s essential coronavirus news, features and explainers written by Globe reporters.

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Economy

Biden's Hot Economy Stokes Currency Fears for the Rest of World – Bloomberg

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As Joe Biden this week hailed America’s booming economy as the strongest in the world during a reelection campaign tour of battleground-state Pennsylvania, global finance chiefs convening in Washington had a different message: cool it.

The push-back from central bank governors and finance ministers gathering for the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings highlight how the sting from a surging US economy — manifested through high interest rates and a strong dollar — is ricocheting around the world by forcing other currencies lower and complicating plans to bring down borrowing costs.

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Opinion: Higher capital gains taxes won't work as claimed, but will harm the economy – The Globe and Mail

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Open this photo in gallery:

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hold the 2024-25 budget, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on April 16.Patrick Doyle/Reuters

Alex Whalen and Jake Fuss are analysts at the Fraser Institute.

Amid a federal budget riddled with red ink and tax hikes, the Trudeau government has increased capital gains taxes. The move will be disastrous for Canada’s growth prospects and its already-lagging investment climate, and to make matters worse, research suggests it won’t work as planned.

Currently, individuals and businesses who sell a capital asset in Canada incur capital gains taxes at a 50-per-cent inclusion rate, which means that 50 per cent of the gain in the asset’s value is subject to taxation at the individual or business’s marginal tax rate. The Trudeau government is raising this inclusion rate to 66.6 per cent for all businesses, trusts and individuals with capital gains over $250,000.

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The problems with hiking capital gains taxes are numerous.

First, capital gains are taxed on a “realization” basis, which means the investor does not incur capital gains taxes until the asset is sold. According to empirical evidence, this creates a “lock-in” effect where investors have an incentive to keep their capital invested in a particular asset when they might otherwise sell.

For example, investors may delay selling capital assets because they anticipate a change in government and a reversal back to the previous inclusion rate. This means the Trudeau government is likely overestimating the potential revenue gains from its capital gains tax hike, given that individual investors will adjust the timing of their asset sales in response to the tax hike.

Second, the lock-in effect creates a drag on economic growth as it incentivizes investors to hold off selling their assets when they otherwise might, preventing capital from being deployed to its most productive use and therefore reducing growth.

Budget’s capital gains tax changes divide the small business community

And Canada’s growth prospects and investment climate have both been in decline. Canada currently faces the lowest growth prospects among all OECD countries in terms of GDP per person. Further, between 2014 and 2021, business investment (adjusted for inflation) in Canada declined by $43.7-billion. Hiking taxes on capital will make both pressing issues worse.

Contrary to the government’s framing – that this move only affects the wealthy – lagging business investment and slow growth affect all Canadians through lower incomes and living standards. Capital taxes are among the most economically damaging forms of taxation precisely because they reduce the incentive to innovate and invest. And while taxes on capital gains do raise revenue, the economic costs exceed the amount of tax collected.

Previous governments in Canada understood these facts. In the 2000 federal budget, then-finance minister Paul Martin said a “key factor contributing to the difficulty of raising capital by new startups is the fact that individuals who sell existing investments and reinvest in others must pay tax on any realized capital gains,” an explicit acknowledgment of the lock-in effect and costs of capital gains taxes. Further, that Liberal government reduced the capital gains inclusion rate, acknowledging the importance of a strong investment climate.

At a time when Canada badly needs to improve the incentives to invest, the Trudeau government’s 2024 budget has introduced a damaging tax hike. In delivering the budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said “Canada, a growing country, needs to make investments in our country and in Canadians right now.” Individuals and businesses across the country likely agree on the importance of investment. Hiking capital gains taxes will achieve the exact opposite effect.

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Economy

Nigeria's Economy, Once Africa's Biggest, Slips to Fourth Place – Bloomberg

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Nigeria’s economy, which ranked as Africa’s largest in 2022, is set to slip to fourth place this year and Egypt, which held the top position in 2023, is projected to fall to second behind South Africa after a series of currency devaluations, International Monetary Fund forecasts show.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook estimates Nigeria’s gross domestic product at $253 billion based on current prices this year, lagging energy-rich Algeria at $267 billion, Egypt at $348 billion and South Africa at $373 billion.

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