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Economy

Trump’s Economy Goes Viral – The American Prospect

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The U.S. faces its most severe economic collapse since 2008, on several fronts. One is the economics of quarantine—canceled schools, conventions, business travel, tourism, and all the knock-on effects on the consumer and producer economy; in short, the collapse of normal daily economic life.

The second is the collapse of global supply chains on which far too much of the U.S. economy has come to depend. The emblematic factoid here is that most surgical masks are made in Wuhan.

Neither the collapse of demand nor the collapse of supply lends itself to the usual economic remedies. The Fed could cut rates to zero and that will not restore travel to Italy or cause the resumption of canceled conferences.

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The only entity with the reach to stem some of the damage is the same one on which we are relying to guide us through the public-health catastrophe—the U.S. government, which is not exactly in good hands. In the short run, we will rely on the residual competence of the deep state that Trump keeps trying to destroy.

If we can just replace Trump in November, the lessons of the pandemic will demonstrate the case for more robust and competent government. The absence of universal health insurance will make this calamity more severe than it had to be, as sick people failed to seek medical help. With 40 percent of service-sector workers denied sick days, nobody will ever again be able to contend that all workers should not have paid medical leave, or that health coverage should not be universal.

And we need a serious industrial policy to reclaim and rebuild domestic supply chains. Given the suffering and death that will ensue, it would be grotesque to call any of these consequences silver linings. But once the twin epidemic of COVID-19 and Donald Trump is behind us, there is an overdue opportunity to rebuild.

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Economy

The Crypto Bull Run Is Igniting The Web3 Creator Economy – Forbes

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Protection and monetization of digital IP has long been one of the most promising areas for Web3 disruption, offering to better protect IP while returning more value to creators. Development to date has focused on leveraging the capabilities of NFTs to introduce digital scarcity while using smart contracts to better enforce the distribution of royalties. Nevertheless, it’s fair to say that no solution has yet proven compelling enough to attract significant adoption from the established creator economy, which was reported by Goldman Sachs
GS
in 2023 to be worth around $250 billion.

The bear market of the last two years has undoubtedly played a part, with Crunchbase stating that funding for Web3 projects “cratered” by 74% year over year in 2023, making it more difficult for projects to advance their roadmaps.

However, over the same period, a new threat to the creator economy has emerged: The growing prevalence of AI-based tools. With a new bull market now underway, has the moment arrived for Web3 creator tools?

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A Sea Change For Creators

AI is a double-edged sword that has the potential to both make and break the burgeoning creator economy. Generative AI paves the way for a new wave of creators and modes of creation; however, the human ramifications could be significant. Traditional creators, including the New York Times
NYT
, are already mounting lawsuits over the unfair use of their work to train algorithms. Plus, there’s the impending risk that human creativity could get drowned out by a wave of AI-generated content.

There’s also the question of monetization. Each successive wave of digitalization tends to strip value from creators, leading to concerns that the rise of AI will further erode the ability of creatives to monetize their work.

While many are still debating the scale of the AI threat, creators are seeking any solution to better protect their work and future earning opportunities, while regulators and policy hawks are keen to see more transparency in AI-generated content. The fact that this is an election year in dozens of countries where AI-based content is already playing a headline role also adds a political and democratic imperative to the equation.

Reigniting The Web3 Creator Fire

The new bull market in crypto is now giving fresh impetus to projects and investors who understand the opportunity for Web3-based creator tools but have been waiting for the right time to move into the market. Korea’s largest VC firm, Hashed, recently put the creator economy and protection of intellectual property at the top of its 2024 call for startups, and the theme will be central to this year’s Korean Blockchain Week (KBW). The flagship KBW: Impact conference event is organized by FACTBLOCK and co-hosted by Hashed.

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I reached out to Simon Kim, CEO and Managing Partner at Hashed, who shared, “We foresee that integrating content into Web3-based creator applications will enhance user retention and drive sustainable growth, fundamentally transforming the overall user experience. The progression of AI technology will be a catalyst in accelerating this trend, further bridging the gap between innovative content creation and blockchain technology. Blockchain is a pivotal force in redefining the landscape of content creation, offering novel pathways for IP management and monetization.”

Even AI Creators Need A Hand

Along with names such as a16z and Paris Hilton’s VC fund, Hashed also participated in last year’s $54 million round for Story Protocol, one of the standout successes in an otherwise flat funding year. Story Protocol is a “programmable IP layer” that aims to simplify the enforcement of rights, allow creative remixing, and streamline the monetization process for both original and subsequent creations while minimizing the operational barriers that often hinder the creative industry.

Perhaps somewhat paradoxically, the project recently made headlines thanks to a partnership that will allow user-generated AI models created on Ritual to be recorded and accredited to their creators with each use.

However, competition to capture the Web3 opportunity for the creator economy is rapidly heating up across the space.

In December, Web3 gaming giant Animoca Brands confirmed the company’s commitment to supporting the creator economy and advancing Web3 over the coming year. Although primarily known for its game portfolio, Animoca also operates an ed-tech platform that enables co-publishing rights for educational content, allowing creators to distribute monetized content directly to students. The CEO highlighted the lack of control and monetization opportunities for creators in the Web2 space.

From Piracy To IP Protection

Many might remember Limewire, perhaps best known as the scourge of noughties musicians. In 2007, the Electronic Frontier Foundation estimated that it was on one in three computers to obtain pirated MP3 files. However, the project recently launched a Web3 creator studio on Polygon
MATIC
, initially focused on imagery but with plans to expand to music and audio files.

Users can access a range of AI tools to manipulate files or create new works. All creations are minted as an NFT
NFT
on the Polygon blockchain, while royalties are paid out automatically based on the use or sale of the content. Ultimately, Limewire could go from being a facilitator of pirated music to a monetization tool for musicians: Quite the redemption arc, particularly so in this new era when the Web2 streaming model has evolved to hurt musicians’ revenues.

However, some are taking the royalty payments a layer deeper to mitigate future protocol risk. Projects including Enjin and Rarible have embedded royalty payment functionality into the blockchain programming itself, meaning that its application-agnostic and royalty payments should continue uninterrupted for as long as the blockchain is in operation.

As these developments are still in their infancy, it will be intriguing to see how they are received by a creator economy that’s grappling with the full impact of AI tools. However, the combined factors of a new bull market, AI’s opportunities and challenges, and the chance to better monetize and protect IP amid declining revenues on Web2 platforms mean that the timing for Web3 creator tools to make a strategic market entry could not be better.

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Economy

Britain's economy went into recession last year, official figures confirm – The Globe and Mail

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Open this photo in gallery:

People walk over London Bridge, in London, on Oct. 25, 2023.SUSANNAH IRELAND/Reuters

Britain’s economy entered a shallow recession last year, official figures confirmed on Thursday, leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year.

Gross domestic product shrank by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and by 0.3 per cent in the fourth, unchanged from preliminary estimates, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Thursday.

The figures will be disappointing for Mr. Sunak, who has been accused by the opposition Labour Party – far ahead in opinion polls – of overseeing “Rishi’s recession.”

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“The weak starting point for GDP this year means calendar-year growth in 2024 is likely to be limited to less than 1 per cent,” said Martin Beck, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club.

“However, an acceleration in momentum this year remains on the cards.”

Britain’s economy has shown signs of starting 2024 on a stronger footing, with monthly GDP growth of 0.2 per cent in January, and unofficial surveys suggesting growth continued in February and March.

Tax cuts announced by finance minister Jeremy Hunt and expectations of interest-rate cuts are likely to help the economy in 2024.

However, Britain remains one of the slowest countries to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of last year, its economy was just 1 per cent bigger than in late 2019, with only Germany faring worse among Group of Seven nations.

The economy grew just 0.1 per cent in all of 2023, its weakest performance since 2009, excluding the peak-pandemic year of 2020.

GDP per person, which has not grown since early 2022, fell by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter and 0.7 per cent across 2023.

Sterling was little changed against the dollar and the euro after the data release.

The Bank of England (BOE) has said inflation is moving toward the point where it can start cutting rates. It expects the economy to grow by just 0.25 per cent this year, although official budget forecasters expect a 0.8-per-cent expansion.

BOE policy maker Jonathan Haskel said in an interview reported in Thursday’s Financial Times that rate cuts were “a long way off,” despite dropping his advocacy of a rise at last week’s meeting.

Thursday’s figures from the ONS also showed 0.7 per cent growth in households’ real disposable income, flat in the previous quarter.

Thomas Pugh, an economist at consulting firm RSM, said the increase could prompt consumers to increase their spending and support the economy.

“Consumer confidence has been improving gradually over the last year … as the impact of rising real wages filters through into people’s pockets, even though consumers remain cautious overall,” Mr. Pugh said.

Britain’s current account deficit totalled £21.18-billion ($36.21-billion) in the fourth quarter, slightly narrower than a forecast of £21.4-billion ($36.6-billion) shortfall in a Reuters poll of economists, and equivalent to 3.1 per cent of GDP, up from 2.7 per cent in the third quarter.

The underlying current account deficit, which strips out volatile trade in precious metals, expanded to 3.9 per cent of GDP.

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Economy

How will a shrinking population affect the global economy? – Al Jazeera English

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Falling fertility rates could bring about a transformational demographic shift over the next 25 years.

It has been described as a demographic catastrophe.

The Lancet medical journal warns that a majority of countries do not have a high enough fertility rate to sustain their population size by the end of the century.

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The rate of the decline is uneven, with some developing nations seeing a baby boom.

The shift could have far-reaching social and economic impacts.

Enormous population growth since the industrial revolution has put enormous pressure on the planet’s limited resources.

So, how does the drop in births affect the economy?

And regulators in the United States and the European Union crack down on tech monopolies.

The gender gap in tech narrows.

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