Economy

Tump, debt build up will make coronavirus worse for global economy – Business Insider – Business Insider

Published

5 years ago

February 29, 2020

Harry Miller

The impact of coronavirus will be worsened by the fact that the world is holding a record amount of debt right now.
In the US, American households have $1.5 trillion more in debt than they held the last time debt levels peaked in 2008.
With these conditions an economic shock can do a lot of damage, as people and businesses don’t have the cash flow to make debt payments.
The markets know all this, so Donald Trump can freak out all he wants. It’s not going to stop a sell off.
This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
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There is never a good time for a global pandemic, but this moment is especially bad. And that is because the world is more in debt than it has ever been.

According to a report from the International Institute of Finance the global debt-to-GDP ratio hit 322% in the third quarter of 2019. In developed markets debt hit 383% of GDP. This includes everything from household debt to corporate and sovereign debt.

“Spurred by low interest rates and loose financial conditions, we estimate that total global debt will exceed $257 trillion in [the first quarter of] 2020, driven mainly by non-financial sector debt (now approaching $200 trillion),” said the report.

In these conditions an economic shock can do a lot of damage. Think of it like going into fire season after weeks of drought. Debt itself won’t be the problem, but if there is a significant slowdown debt will exacerbate that problem. It doesn’t matter how low interest rates are if businesses and individuals simply don’t have the cash flow to make debt payments.

So lowering interest rates — which is what policymakers have been doing in the face of any kind of slow down since the financial crisis — may not be that helpful if things really go south.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump — who has called himself the “king of debt” — seems most interested in keeping confidence up so the stock market doesn’t fall. This is cosmetic. His administration crippled America’s ability to respond to pandemics a while ago, so it’s clear his interest has never been in solving problems like the one coronavirus poses — he just wants everything to seem fine. Debt will make all of that more difficult.

Down for a count

Americans households are $14.5 trillion worth of debt, according to data compiled by the New York Federal Reserve. That’s about $1.5 trillion more than we were holding the last time household debt peaked in 2008. The biggest chunk of this debt is held in mortgages, then student loans, then auto loans followed by credit cards.

That means that if a significant economic slowdown does come, and people are forced to work less or not at all, they’ll have trouble paying down the debt they owe. We already know that coronavirus is causing massive supply chain disruptions. Manufacturing jobs, especially, depend on factories having every part they need to build what they build. Those parts come from all over the world, especially China. And in China, especially hard hit provinces like Guangdong and Hubei.

If factories can’t open, employees will likely see their hours cut back. For Americans living paycheck to paycheck that could mean the difference between making and missing debt payments. Enough of this kind of household financial strain could slow the entire economy, especially since consumer spending is its brightest spot right now.

“The American consumer really is the firewall between an expanding economy and a recession,” Mark Zandi said, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics told Reuters.

Corporate America has the same problem. In its Financial Stability Report last May the New York Fed noted that “growth in business debt has outpaced GDP for the past 10 years, with the most rapid growth in debt over recent years concentrated among the riskiest firms.”

And Goldman Sachs is predicting that in a worse case scenario corporate earnings — the thing that keeps these debt levels manageable — could actually contract in 2020 due to the coronavirus.

To be clear, there are a wide range of opinions out there about what coronavirus’ impact will be. While the market basically ignored it until this week, there are some economists — even former Fed Chair Janet Yellen — who say it could take the US and the world to the brink of recession.

But even if the spread of the coronavirus is slowed in the next few weeks, there will be parts of the economy that won’t snap back as quickly as others. What’s worse, in a lot of cases these are parts of the economy that were already hurting.

For example, while Trump has credited himself for a renaissance in American manufacturing, the reality is that there has been no such thing during his presidency. For the entire second half of 2019 the Institute of Supply Management, which tracks manufacturing activity, calculated that the sector was contracting. It just barely managed to swing back to growth in January, but the coronavirus’ spread will likely end all that.

According to Deutche Bank, 20% of US inputs are imported from China. Manufacturing businesses are especially dependent on these inputs as part of their supply chains. Once these supply chains are broken, they can take some time to recover.

The auto industry serves as a good example. Back in 2011 when Japan was hit by the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami the industry’s domestic output fell 60% and took seven to eight months to recover, according to Capital Economics. The rest of the country’s economy bounced back much faster.

In January about 986,000 Americans were employed in motor vehicle parts manufacturing in some way shape or form, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If auto supply chains are broken and factories close for a time, they could see their hours cut back significantly. That, in turn, would make it harder for workers and businesses to pay down their debt pile.

King of debt, king of denial

None of this seems to be concerning the president of the United States, at least not directly. In fact until this week he’s basically been in a state of denial. According to the Washington Post, Trump didn’t want to say much about the coronavirus for fear that it would harm his chances of making another trade deal with China.

Instead of preparing for a crisis he’s been worrying about the stock market. In an effort to keep investor confidence up he’s resorted to his normal nonsense, calling media reporting on the coronavirus “fake news” while his minions on right wing fringe sites bully Dr. Nancy Messonnier, a Center of Disease Control official handling the coronavirus response.

He’s also sent his administration out to tell people to look past the coronavirus. In a CNBC interview this week Economic adviser Larry Kudlow buy stocks.

“The virus story is not going to last forever,” he said. “And that’s why I like the World Health Organization saying, let’s not overreact. To me, if you are an investor out there and you have a long-term point of view I would suggest very seriously taking a look at a market, a stock market that is a lot cheaper than it was a week or two ago. The long-term investor.”

None of this will work, and stocks will continue to stocks slide. For reference, the Dow Jones industrial average is down another 9.5% since Kudlow told Americans to “buy the dip.”

Even if the administration could show some semblance of competence (which it hasn’t) that may only calm things down temporarily. The bad news of coronavirus’ ravages on the economy is only beginning. The market is aware that corporate earnings are going to get hit in a meaningful way going forward, and it knows what everyone’s balance sheet looks like too.

This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author(s).

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

Published

3 days ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

Published

3 days ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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