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UFC 257 Aftermath: Dustin Poirier proves that pressure makes Diamonds – MMA Fighting
Heading into UFC 257, one of the pervasive questions surrounding the main event fight between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor was who had improved more since their first fight back in 2014.
Well, now we know. In the second round of the pay-per-view headliner on Saturday night, Poirier answered any such questions definitively, viciously knocking out McGregor with a series of punches against the fence.
McGregor has lost before – a lot, in fact, over the last few years. But this one felt different. Aside from the fact that this is McGregor’s most meme-able loss, it’s also his least explainable one. Nate Diaz? He had little time to prepare for a different stylistic matchup and he blew his gas tank. He then came back and won the rematch. Khabib Nurmagomedov? It’s Khabib. No one beats Khabib.
But Poirier? McGregor already had a knockout win over Poirier, and he was predicting a finish inside of 60 seconds. He spent much of the build up for this fight talking about how prepared he was and that this was the best version of himself. And he got knocked out in 8 minutes.
That’s not an accident. Poirier didn’t finish McGregor because he “had attributes” or because he is a bad stylistic matchup for him. He did it because for the last seven years, Poirier has been steadily improving. Because, in essence, Poirier took to heart the mantra of McGregor’s own team, “win or learn.”
In many ways, Saturday night was the culmination of that journey. McGregor is not just the biggest star in the sport, one who lifts others into the realm of wider public perception. For Poirier specifically, he was the archetypal villain, the man who handed Poirier his worst loss and forced him to reconsider his career in a fundamental way. After their first fight, Poirier moved up to lightweight and reinvented himself. He became a very good defensive fighter who boxed instead of brawled. He put together wins. In his own words, he became mentally stronger by learning to “stop caring about the noise”. He steadily kept improving. He won an interim title. He lost in his title shot. He bounced back with one of the best fights of the year. And then, finally, he conquered the man who set him down that path to begin with. It’s the plot of a Disney movie. The only thing missing was the championship, and that shouldn’t be far off.
Khabib Nurmagomedov is currently the UFC lightweight champion. But Poirier will not fight him next. No one will. Khabib retired after his win at UFC 254, and since then, he has made his thoughts on returning pretty clear: he’s not going to do it.
Now that the prospect of a pay-per-view shattering rematch between Khabib and McGregor is off the table (such that it ever was on the table in the first place), the UFC can move on to crowning a new champion, and Poirier will be one half of that fight. He certainly deserves it. Poirier now has wins over numbers 1, 4, 6, and 9 in the current UFC rankings (and the top-ranked featherweight). That’s more wins over ranked opponents than anyone in the division, other than Khabib.
If Poirier goes on to win the undisputed title and finally get “paid in full,” it would be the perfect conclusion to his career. There is literally not another person in MMA who would deserve it more. Poirier is universally respected by the MMA world, and the reason this fight even came about was Poirier and McGregor began publicly negotiating for a fight to benefit Poirier’s charity, The Good Fight Foundation. But even if Poirier loses in his next fight and never does end up capturing the undisputed UFC lightweight champion, that won’t take away from what he accomplished on Saturday night. He vanquished his demons and ascended to a rarified level of stardom. As the saying goes, pressure makes diamonds, and on Saturday night, none shown brighter than Dustin Poirier.
“Khabib reiterates he doesn’t want to fight any more – dude, I’m the champ. I’m not going to fight, some – and like I said, respect to Chandler – a new guy to the UFC who just beat a guy that’s coming off a loss that I just beat for the belt. That’s not exciting to me.” – Dustin Poirier on possibly fighting Michael Chandler for the UFC lightweight title.
“Just because he’s never had the opportunity. Gaethje just came out here and got beat, as I did. Not a knock on Gaethje, but he lost. I think Oliviera, probably, or let them fight to see who gets it.” – Dustin Poirier on why he thinks Charles Oliveira deserves the title shot.
“If he wants to have his disrespectful comments, come back and let’s go again, my man. I’m here for it. That’s fighting talk. If you’re coming back, come back. You try and do it. That’s that.” – Conor McGregor on Khabib.
“I did talk to Khabib. He said to me, ‘Dana, be honest with yourself. I’m so many levels above these guys. I beat these guys.’ I don’t know. I don’t know what he’s—it doesn’t sound very positive, so we’ll see.” – Dana White giving up that Khabib is ever going to fight again.
“I’m by no means a perfect man inside that octagon, but I promise you I can beat that man. I promise you I can beat Khabib, so I told him… I didn’t tell him personally, but I told him through the camera lens. You’ve earned every right to be able to sail off into the sunset and continue living your life and making your impact because you’ve done it thus far. But, man, if you ever do come back, there’s a man over here waiting for you from High Ridge, Missouri.” – Michael Chandler on Khabib.
Stock up
Dustin Poirier: For all the reasons listed above. Poirier not only got back his worst loss, he did so on the biggest platform of his career. Poirier is set to receive the Conor McGregor bump in a huge way, and maybe even the lightweight title to go along with it.
Michael Chandler: Chandler had doubters coming into the UFC. Many of them. He has substantially fewer now. Chandler ran through Dan Hooker in a way no one else really has an immediately put himself in the lightweight title conversation.
Marina Rodriguez: Rodriguez came into this fight having had two subpar performances against grapplers. Well, third time is the charm, I guess. Rodriguez still got taken down, but when she got up she made it count.
Julianna Peña: Five years ago, Peña seemed destined for a bantamweight title shot, but then she lost to Valentina Shevchenko and hasn’t been able to build any momentum since. Finishing former title challenger Sara McMann is a good start and puts her right back in the mix at 135.
Neutral
Joanne Calderwood: Calderwood was supposed to fight for the title last year until an injury to Shevchenko prevented it. Instead, “Jojo” took a fight against Jennifer Maia and lost. This win over Jessica Eye probably doesn’t get her back to a title shot, but it does at least keep her in the conversation.
Brad Tavares: Tavares continues to be one of the most consistent fighters in the middleweight division, racking up wins against all but the very best fighters in the world. Another workmanlike performance against Antonio Carlos Junior just affirms his place in the 185 ranks.
Stock down
Conor McGregor: For all the talk of “win or learn,” McGregor hasn’t been doing a lot of either lately. McGregor has not beaten an elite fighter since the Obama administration, and now the book appears to be out on how to fight him. “Notorious” needs to make some changes.
Dan Hooker: Hooker had a big opportunity to make a name for himself on Saturday, and instead, he got folded up like a lawn chair by a UFC debutant. On top of that, Hooker just looked bad in the fight. He seemed overly concerned about Chandler’s wrestling and presented very little in the way of offense before getting clobbered.
Sara McMann: McMann is a former Olympic silver medalist and widely-respected MMA fighter, but she has a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and she did so again on Saturday. A win might have gotten McMann a title shot. Instead, at 40 years old she can’t have much time left in the cage.
Khalil Rountree Jr.: Rountree was one of the biggest favorites on the card and ended up losing a decision to Marcin Prachnio. He’s now 1-3 in his last 4 and in danger of being cut from the UFC.
Nik Lentz winning Eric Colón’s scorecard is not a great look. But at this point, it’s expected that there will be at least one weird decision happening on any given UFC card. Much more troubling, though, is the continued decline of Herb Dean. For many years, Dean was one of the best referees in the sport, but those years are pretty far removed at this point. Lately, he has been plagued by indecision or poor decisions with his choices in stopping fights (and last weekend stood idly by as Max Holloway may have taken years off the life of Calvin Kattar) and that problem reared its ugly head again on Saturday.
In the main card opener, Marina Rodriguez dropped Amanda Ribas with a right hand that had Ribas in all sorts of trouble. Rodriguez followed her to the floor and started rifling punches into Ribas who was holding onto a leg in desperation. Dean hovered by the two, preparing for his moment to jump in. He then appeared to do so, but changed his mind while stepping in. The result was that Rodriguez felt Dean make contact with her and walked away triumphantly, only for Ribas to stand up and for Dean to tell them to keep fighting. Rodriguez obliged and then cracked Ribas with a few more shots before Dean stepped in to waive things off.
There are two things here that make this so bad. First, is that Dean basically changed his mind about a stoppage. Had Ribas recovered and then gone on to win the fight, Rodriguez would have a very strong case that Dean negatively impacted the outcome of the fight, which is a core responsibility of the referee – to remain neutral. Secondly, he should have stopped the fight! Ribas was conscious, but clearly done, and instead of protecting her from taking more unnecessary punishment, Dean created a situation where Ribas stood back up and got lit up again. Overall, it was a terrible performance by Dean, and we’re lucky he didn’t do something similar in the main event.
Dustin Poirier vs. Charles Oliveira: Poirier deserves to fight for the title, and Oliveira is the man most deserving of the next one. This should be straightforward.
Conor McGregor vs. Rafael dos Anjos: The Nate Diaz trilogy is what everyone is thinking and probably what will actually happen next, but the RDA fight makes more sense. McGregor wants to stay active and he wants to remain in the lightweight title hunt, and with RDA once again a going concern at 155, there is plenty of backstory here to build on.
Michael Chandler vs. Justin Gaethje: For years this was the dream non-UFC fight and now it can happen in the octagon, with a title shot on the line. A no-brainer.
Dan Hooker vs. Tony Ferguson: There will be violence.
Joanne Calderwood vs. Lauren Murphy: Both women need another win to put a stamp on their title claims, and with things trending toward Jessica Andrade getting the next crack at Valentina Shechenko, this seems like the only true option.
Makhmud Muradov vs. Brad Tavares: No need to overcomplicate this. Muradov is on a 14-fight win streak and deserves a crack at the middleweight elite. That is practically Tavares’ job at this point.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Claudia Gadelha: It would be nice to give Rodriguez a break from people who are going to try and take her down but the strawweight division is not very accommodating in that regard. Gadelha would be a huge scalp for Rodriguez and put her on the path to true contention.
Julianna Peña vs. Raquel Pennington: It’s kind of surprising these two haven’t fought already. Both women are coming off wins, so now is the time.
Movsar Evloev vs. Shane Burgos. Burgos was supposed to fight at UFC 257, but an injury to his opponent forced him off the card. If Evloev is prepared to make a quick turnaround, this would be a good introduction for him to the top-15 of the division.
Before each season, I predict who will win the Stanley Cup. I predict who they will defeat for the Stanley Cup.
Both the champion and the runner up from those preseason predictions for 2023-24 qualified for the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. Rather than hedge or waver against that prognostication, I actually see a path for both of them in this tournament. Call it delusional, call it stubborn, call it hubris — I’m sticking with them.
Here is how the Stanley Cup playoffs will play out, from the opening round through the last game of the Final. I apologize in advance for spoiling the next two months for you, as obviously all of this is going to happen exactly to script and none of these picks will be incorrect.
Please enjoy the best postseason tournament in all of sports, no matter how it actually plays out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
The Battle of Florida has been lopsided in the postseason, with the Lightning winning both previous meetings in 2021 and 2022, winning eight out of 10 games between the teams. But those were different Lightning teams.
This Lightning team is more top-heavy than ever: There’s a 29-point gap between the team’s fifth and sixth leading scorers. They don’t have injured defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, a key to their blue line. They haven’t had the same Andrei Vasilevskiy they’ve relied on for years to carry them. He missed two months with injury and posted a minus-10.84 goals saved above expected.
If Vasy is Vasy again, there’s always a chance that Tampa Bay’s collection of stars — MVP candidate Nikita Kucherov, defenseman Victor Hedman, center Brayden Point and forward Steven Stamkos — can control a seven-game series. But I think this is where that diminished supporting cast gets exposed.
Sure, the Panthers are a bit top-heavy, too. But they’re deeper down the lineup and significantly better defensively (first in goal-against average) than Tampa Bay (21st).
Winner: Panthers eliminate Lightning in five.
This is going to go one of two ways. The Leafs could skate out for Game 1, see the Spoked-B across the ice, think about the three first-round seven-game series wins the Bruins have against them in the last 11 years, and crumble. Or this series becomes like the one back in 2018, when the Washington Capitals finally overcame their own postseason tormentors, the Pittsburgh Penguins, and that momentum carried them all the way to their first Stanley Cup win in franchise history.
The goaltending matchup is going to get the most attention here, and rightfully so. The Bruins have it; the Leafs might not. The real intrigue is Boston finding a way to stop Toronto’s offense, which was second in the NHL this season (3.63 goals per game).
If they load up with Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm in an attempt to stop Auston Matthews (69 goals), that’s asking a lot from the other pairings against the Leafs’ other lines. While Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha have done a more than admirable job in the middle this season, it’s in the postseason where not having Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci anymore is finally going to be felt.
So, in summary, it’s the latter: The Leafs exorcize their demons, and away they go.
Winner: Maple Leafs eliminate Bruins in six games (because if it goes seven, they’re in trouble).
The only reasons we’re even humoring the Capitals here: Goalie Charlie Lindgren was fifth in the league in goals saved above expected (12.97) and won four of five games down the stretch; and Washington has had an uncanny habit of subverting expectations, making the playoffs after an aggressive bit of selling at the trade deadline.
Yes, the Rangers carry the hex of the Presidents’ Trophy: There have been 37 previous winners for having the league’s best record. Eight of them won the Stanley Cup. Eight of them didn’t make it out of the first round.
But losing to the Capitals — who don’t have the matchup advantages to exploit the Rangers’ shortcomings — would be quite the upset.
Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson have seen that movie before: The Caps won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2010 and then were goalied out of the playoffs by Jaroslav Halak and the Canadiens. That’s the kind of scenario they’d need here — although let’s not sleep on the elite defensive play first-year coach Spencer Carbery has squeezed out of this group.
Winner: Rangers eliminate the Capitals in five.
The Hurricanes won this matchup in six games last season. But those were boring and predictable Lane Lambert Islanders, two terms that could never apply to new coach Patrick Roy. His Islanders generate more scoring chances and prevent fewer form opponents than under Lambert. Roy’s team has been on a heater to end the season, too, winning eight of nine games and giving up two or fewer goals in six of them.
The Islanders are rolling with Semyon Varlamov to start, but it won’t be long before we see Ilya Sorokin.
Of course, Carolina’s a different team, too. Jake Guentzel took their top line from “good” to “preposterously good”: Carolina had an expected goals share of 61% when he was on the ice. (Evgeny Kuznetsov has had less of an impact so far.)
Home-ice swings this thing to the Canes, but the Islanders won’t go quietly. Unfortunately for New York, they don’t get any benefit for overtime losses in the playoffs.
Winner: Hurricanes eliminate the Islanders in five.
EASTERN CONFERENCE SECOND ROUND
Last season, the Panthers rode the momentum of their incredible seven-game stunner over the Bruins to knock out the Leafs in the second round. I think the opposite happens here, with Toronto getting the “we beat Boston!” wind in their sails against Florida.
Every series is an education. The lesson the Leafs must learn during the first round is how to grind out chances in the playoffs against a superior defensive opponent. If Boston is the test to that end, Florida is the final exam. They’re the gold standard in limiting their opponents’ scoring chances and finished as the NHL’s best defense team this season.
The Leafs got down 3-0 in their series against the Cats last season. This whole thing probably swings on whether Toronto can take home-ice advantage away on the road — and if they’ve found a goalie that can keep Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk off the board.
Winner: Maple Leafs in six.
Rangers fans have pointed out once or twice or 3,000 times that the Blueshirts are 5-2-0 against the Hurricanes in the last two regular seasons, as a refutation of my claims that the Hurricanes match up particularly well against them.
But I don’t think that’s a sufficient counterargument against the Hurricanes being the type of team that can exploit the Rangers’ deficiencies at even strength — documented here in a deep dive on them before the playoffs — and hang with them offensively, having finished just 0.01 goals per game behind them this season.
The Rangers’ greatest advantage against any opponent, their power play, was already limited by playoff officiating. But the Hurricanes were the best penalty killing team in the league this season, having limited the Rangers to one goal in 10 power plays during their season series. If anything, special teams is a wash: The Canes were actually slightly better on the PP than the Rangers this season (26.9% to 26.4%) while the Rangers were third on the kill.
While the Rangers have the advantage in goal, I don’t think it’ll be enough to swing the series.
Winner: Hurricanes in six.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
The last time the Maple Leafs were in the conference final, Devils coach Travis Green was their 10th leading scorer and Tie Domi, father of current Leafs winger Max Domi, led them with 157 penalty minutes. Oh, and the Carolina Hurricanes dumped them in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. The fifth leading scorer on that team? Current Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour. Time is a flat circle.
It’s hard to even conceive what the frenzy in Toronto might look like if they made the penultimate round of the playoffs for the first time since 2002, but we’re going to find out. The Hurricanes are going to be an incredibly difficult out based on the way they play, their overall depth and the kind of shutdown options they have at forward and on the blue line. For Toronto to win, they’re going to have to find a few heroes that aren’t in the Core Four to score a big goal at a critical time. That’s how playoff legends are made.
If the Leafs are going to play for the Stanley Cup as I’ve predicted, it’s going to be in a series that looks a lot like the one the Panthers had against Carolina: Tightly played one-bounce games in which the Maple Leafs find a way while the Hurricanes are still searching for that one goal to tip the series.
Winner: Maple Leafs in six.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
It’s possible that the defending Stanley Cup champions’ playoff fate might have been sealed by the Anaheim Ducks. In Game 82 of the regular season, the Ducks defeated the Knights in Las Vegas, which combined with the Los Angeles Kings‘ overtime win over the Chicago Blackhawks gave L.A. the third seed in the Pacific. Instead of facing the Edmonton Oilers, who they solved last season in the semifinals, the Knights drew the Stars, who they defeated in the conference final in a series that featured three overtime games.
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but Vegas’ success here comes down to players that were too injured to appear at the end of the regular season returning to their lineup for the playoffs — and if their goaltending answers the bell. In the former case, it’s getting forwards Mark Stone and William Carrier back in; in the latter, it’s whether Logan Thompson is ready to make a mark in the postseason. He could see more action here than 2023 playoff hero Adin Hill, despite not having appeared in the playoffs yet.
The Knights added Tomas Hertl, Anthony Mantha and Noah Hanifin at the trade deadline. They’re going to be a very, very difficult team to eliminate. But even with those additions, they don’t have the depth that Dallas does, at least up front. The Stars have shown they can match Vegas bludgeon-for-bludgeon. But I think they win here because of the reemergence of goaltender Jake Oettinger‘s elite game at the right time, with a dash of revenge for last season’s loss.
Fun fact: Dallas Coach Peter DeBoer has either coached against or coached for the Golden Knights in all of Vegas’ trips to the playoffs.
Winner: Stars win in six games over the Golden Knights.
This is the pick with the highest degree of difficulty. This is either going to be one of the most epic battles of the playoffs, or we’re completely wrong about the Jets, and they’re going to get flattened under a Nathan MacKinnon steamroller.
On paper, this is a classic confrontation: The Jets tied the Panthers for the fewest goals against per game in the NHL this season (2.41). The Avalanche finished with the league’s best offense (3.68). It’s MacKinnon’s goals vs. Connor Hellebuyck‘s saves, and may the best MVP candidate win.
The Jets have had an uptick in quality in the last couple of weeks, looking like the analytics darling that snuck up on the Central. Meanwhile, there’s something slightly off about this Avalanche team. Maybe it’s Cale Makar not being quite as dominant this season, or the middling even-strength team defense. There’s no mystery when it comes to their goaltending, as Alexandar Georgiev was substandard in the regular season after getting outplayed in last postseason.
It’s hard to imagine the Avalanche going out in the first round in consecutive seasons, especially when MacKinnon is playing well enough to will his team to victory on his own. But I like the Jets’ defense, I love their home-ice advantage, and I think they advance.
Winner: Jets in seven games over the Avalanche.
Even more than the Battle of Florida over the East, this series has the highest chance for a potential upset.
The Predators finally unlocked themselves offensively around midseason. For the final 25 games, they were first in expected goals and controlled 57% of the expected goals in that span, according to Stathletes. Only the Dallas Stars were better.
Where Vancouver is clearly superior is on the defensive end, where coach Rick Tocchet transformed this group into one of the league’s stingiest teams, ranking in the top five in expected goals against all season. Goalie Thatcher Demko was the backbone for all of it, and he might have skated away with this first Vezina Trophy this season had it not been for Hellebuyck getting the lion’s share of the credit for the Jets’ season.
Whether Juuse Saros can equal that performance might be where the series tips, and he’s quietly rounded into form in the last few weeks of the season. He hasn’t played in the postseason since 2021, but he’s got some incredibly good playoff numbers on his resumé.
I don’t like the lack of secondary scoring for the Canucks as the season’s gone on. I don’t like where their power play is. I don’t like the fact that the weight of the series is on them to win it, as they take on a team with frankly nothing to lose — and a couple of guys in Roman Josi and Ryan O’Reilly whom I’d trust to win.
I would feel a lot better about this if coach Andrew Brunette would schedule and then cancel a trip to see U2 before Game 1 of the series, but I’m still calling it.
Winner: Predators eliminate the Canucks in seven.
I have a theory about the new Taylor Swift double album.
It was created during The Eras Tour. With so much routine — the rehearsals, the setlist, etc. — she still had a creative energy that needed to manifest. But crafting lyrics and creating a whole new sonic landscape, those are two different muscles, and her muscles were exhausted with the Eras Tour prep. So she writes songs for the new album with incredible lyrics, but she uses a familiar soundscape created with trusted producers, resembling both “Midnights” and the “1989” vault tracks. Sometimes, to guarantee success, you just go with what you know.
The Edmonton Oilers have all the pressure in the playoffs on them. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are seeking their first Stanley Cup wins, having rededicated themselves and the team to that effort after last season’s loss to Vegas. Stathletes has them with the best statistical chance of winning the Cup (12.5%). It’s a lot to handle.
The good news is that, like Swift, they can go with what they know: Beating the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Kings have a good mix of veteran players, young standouts and however we’d describe Pierre-Luc Dubois these days. They’ve succeeded under Jim Hiller in the standings after he replaced Todd McLellan at the All-Star break, but their underlying numbers reveal a team that doesn’t defend as well, and is one of the playoffs’ most meager offensive teams. While their traditional stats look good, the Kings’ goaltending battery might be one of the few in the playoffs where the Oilers have the edge.
Edmonton defeated the Kings in seven games two years ago and six last season. They’ll beat them again this postseason. Los Angeles knows it all too well.
Winner: Oilers eliminate the Kings in five games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE SECOND ROUND
The “Rick Bowness seeks his revenge against Dallas” series.
“Bones” led the Stars to the Stanley Cup Final in the COVID bubble playoffs as an interim coach, missed the playoffs the following season and then lost in the first round. They replaced him with DeBoer, and the oldest head coach in the NHL moved on to Winnipeg. Now 69 years old, Bowness leads the Jets into what could be a taxing, grinding series against his old team.
Besides being filled to the brim with veteran players seeking their first Stanley Cup rings, the series also features an awesome goaltending duel between Oettinger and Hellebuyck, two goalies that are in the conversation for Team USA Olympic starter in 2026.
This series will not set scoring records, but it won’t lack for drama, either.
Winner: Stars in seven.
The Oilers get the road cleared of the Pacific Division champs thanks to the Predators’ upset of the Canucks. Brunette’s team skates like the wind and has some players that could make life challenging for McDavid and Draisaitl.
But this is a spot where the Edmonton supporting cast makes a difference in the series, as Nashville’s upstart postseason run ends in the conference semifinals.
Winner: Oilers in five.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Along with this bracket, the picks and prognostications from ESPN’s hockey fam will be available soon. I imagine you’ll find more than a few of them have thrown their support behind the Dallas Stars as the Western Conference champions as well as the Stanley Cup.
Logic would dictate that might happen. Dallas has unmatched depth at forward, some terrific defenders who can handle McDavid and Draisaitl, and that chef’s kiss recipe of savvy veterans (Joe Pavelski, Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin) combined with in-their-prime standouts (Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz) and impactful young players (Wyatt Johnston). Oh, and also Jake Oettinger.
Look, there isn’t some secret analytics case I’m going to make here for the Oilers, or some fatal flaw I can point to on the Stars. Dallas is demonstrably the best team in the West. If Edmonton is going to prove my prediction correct, it’s going to be on McDavid and Draisaitl to do what they’ve managed to do in the past, which is drag the Oilers by the scruff of their necks into the next round.
Winner: Oilers in six.
STANLEY CUP FINAL
The Toronto Maple Leafs try to win the first Stanley Cup since 1967, and all that’s standing in their way is the best player in the world — if he is in fact the best player in the world, as Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews have the Gretzky vs. Mario final we never got to see.
Meanwhile, all of Canada picks sides as hockey’s answer to the Dallas Cowboys (when it comes to overexposure and divisiveness) seeks to finally plan the parade. How does someone in Calgary even attempt to figure out whom to root for here?
Now that’s a narrative for the Final.
In the end, we have to go with the Oilers. Home ice matters, and they earned it by finishing two points ahead of the Leafs in the standings. Edmonton will be bruised and battered after the Western Conference playoffs, but will have enough to cross the finish line.
Why the Oilers? My first thought is that a team with two generational talents on the same roster is going to figure out how to win the whole thing at some point: Like Mario and Jagr, Sakic and Forsberg, Crosby and Malkin all did.
But the reason the Oilers made it this far, why they’re going to win the Cup: They’ve reached a point of utter disgust over falling short in the playoffs.
MacKinnon had to get there before the Avalanche won. McDavid and Draisaitl got there last season.
At the NHL Players Media Tour, I asked Draisaitl whether he has reached that MacKinnon moment.
“I certainly have those moments,” he said. “We’ve been at it for a while now. We’ve had some competitive, good teams over the last couple years. And it feels like we’re really close and we’re right there. I’m ready to win. I want to win.”
Win they will, for the first time since 1990. In Game 6. On the road in Toronto. Because if the Leafs are going out, it’d have to be like that.
Winner: Oilers in six over the Maple Leafs.
Can’t make it to one of the Vancouver Canucks playoff games in Nashville? Have no fear.
The Canucks have unveiled plans for a road game viewing party, set to be held at Rogers Arena.
The first “Away Game Viewing Party” will be on April 26, for Game 3 of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The tickets are going for $15 apiece, with the proceeds going to the Canucks for Kids Fund.
Sunday’s event is scheduled to begin at 4:30 p.m.
“Watch the game on one of the biggest and brightest videoboards in the NHL, be entertained throughout the experience, and receive special Rogers Value Menu food and beverage offerings thanks to Rogers,” the team said.
‘All together. All in’
This is all part of the Canucks’ “All together. All in” campaign, which the team says will bring “playoff pride … to life across the city.”
“This tagline expresses the unity between the team and our fans—bringing us together to cheer, believe, and strive for greatness in the playoffs,” the Canucks said in a statement Friday. “You can expect to see this rallying cry in the arena and around the city, on posters, billboards, buses, and beyond, spreading playoff excitement and electricity across the Lower Mainland.”
As part of playoff plans, the Canucks say fans can expect a “revitalized and refreshed Toyota Party on the Plaza” before every home game, with live programming, music, FIN, alumni, a beer garden, ball hockey rinks, and more.
Located outside Rogers Arena, the team says the party on the plaza is free, with no tickets required.
“Programming will begin two and a half hours before the game and end immediately after puck drop. Please note that Pat Quinn Way will be closed on gamedays to allow us to create a larger Toyota Party on the Plaza experience,” the Canucks explained.
Fans of the team are excited as the Canucks inch closer to their first playoff game at home in nearly a decade.
“I think the chances are great,” one fan of the team told CityNews. “We’ve done really well all season, lots of momentum going into the playoffs.”
“It kind of feels like the 2010 Olympics again, where everyone is really looking forward to what’s ahead,” another fan said.
Vancouver last made the playoffs in 2020 and got to the second round, but that was during the pandemic and none of the games were at home. For those looking to catch a home playoff game in person, tickets were still available as of Friday, with the cheapest going for around $300.
With files from Monika Gul.
The Canucks open their playoff stint on Sunday against the Predators at Rogers Arena on Sunday at 7 p.m.
Listen to CityNews 1130 for sports every :15 and :45 past the hour. You can also catch every Canucks game on Sportsnet 650.
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NHL Playoffs 2024: Picks for every first-round series, predicting the Stanley Cup winner – CBS Sports
It’s officially time for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs to begin.
The New York Rangers secured the Presidents’ Trophy with the best record throughout the 2023-24 regular season. When the dust settled on the 2023-24 regular season, the Rangers finished with a 55-23-4 record (114 points) as they just edged out the Dallas Stars for the crown.
In the opening round, the lower-seeded wild card team faces off against the division winner with the best record. The other wild card team takes on the other division winner. The second and third-place teams from the divisions battle it out in the other playoff matchups. In the opening two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, home-ice advantage is given to the higher seed, which means that they had the better regular season record.
With the playoffs here, our NHL experts revealed their first-round predictions along with their Stanley Cup picks.
Western Conference
(1) Stars vs. (WC2) Golden Knights
Chris: This truly pains me to pick against the defending Stanley Cup champions, but it’s such a tough matchup. The Stars are one of the most dominant offenses throughout the NHL as they averaged 3.59 goals (third in the league) during the regular season. The scoring depth is astounding with Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston lighting the lamp on a consistent basis. Adding Chris Tanev to stabilize the blue line was a massive addition at the trade deadline. My only question mark lies in the crease for Dallas. We’ve seen goaltender Jake Oettinger thrive in the past, but it’s been an up-and-down campaign for the former first-round pick. Entering the postseason, Oettinger has tallied a 5-1-0 record, a 1.67 goals-against-average, and a .941 save percentage over his last six starts, so perhaps he has turned the corner. The Golden Knights will give the Stars everything they can handle after adding Tomas Hertl to a loaded group of centers at the trade deadline. Captain Mark Stone could also return at some point in this series, but the Stars are too well-rounded to go against. Pick — Stars beat Golden Knights 4-3
Austin: This matchup could easily be a conference final, which it was last year, but instead we get to see it in the first round. The Stars worked all season to earn the top seed in the Western Conference, and their reward is a date with the defending Stanley Cup champs and the team that eliminated them from the 2023 postseason. This is a heavyweight battle, and it looks like the Golden Knights are getting healthy at the right time once again. Mark Stone has started practicing after missing extended time with a lacerated spleen, and he joins a loaded lineup that has added the likes of Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl since last year’s Stanley Cup run. Of course, this Dallas lineup also looks different from the one that fell to Vegas last summer. The signing of Matt Duchene has provided some extra pop to the Stars’ forward group, and Chris Tanev only solidifies the team’s blue line. As intimidating as the Golden Knights look on paper, the Stars are just as scary, and they have been the better team this season. Dallas gets its revenge in a hard-fought series. Pick — Stars beat Golden Knights 4-2
(2) Jets vs. (3) Avalanche
Chris: This might be the toughest series to predict out of the eight in the opening round. The Avalanche really faded over the last month of the regular season as they dropped seven of their last 11 games. As a result, Colorado was out of the race for the Central Division crown, and even lost out on home-ice advantage in this series. Still, Nathan MacKinnon just produced a Hart Trophy-caliber season, and this is still a well-rounded group that put the puck in the net more than any other team on a nightly basis (3.68 goals-per-game). It certainly won’t be an easy road in this series with likely Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in between the pipes for the Jets. My biggest issue with the Jets is that I’m not sure if they have enough of a scoring punch to keep up with the Avalanche. This is going to be a very entertaining series, but I’ll go with the team that’s been there before. Pick — Avalanche beat Jets 4-2
Austin: Much like the above series, this is a brutal first-round matchup for both sides. The Jets and Avalanche both had great regular seasons, and one will be going home early. The tough part is figuring out which team that will be. The Avalanche are led by Nathan MacKinnon, who just tallied 140 points and seems to be playing a different game than everyone else right now. Add Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar and Devon Toews into that mix, and Colorado has the edge at the top of the lineup. The issue for the Avs is that the goaltending situation is on shaky ground heading into the playoffs. Alexandar Georgiev has struggled, and Justus Annunen has about as much NHL experience as me. The Jets don’t have that issue in net. Connor Hellebuyck will likely win the Vezina Trophy, and he gives his team a massive advantage at that position. On top of that, Winnipeg has some solid depth that only got better with the additions of Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli ahead of the trade deadline. If the Jets’ shutdown line consisting of Adam Lowry between Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton can make life difficult on the Avs’ top players, this series will go in Winnipeg’s favor. Pick — Jets beat Avalanche 4-3
(1) Canucks vs. (WC1) Predators
Chris: The Canucks have come a long way in a calendar year, to say the least. Since bringing in Rick Tocchet, the Canucks have been a juggernaut, and are a very deep team. Vancouver did get goaltender Thatcher Demko back in the lineup over the regular season’s final week after missing time with a knee injury. Having Demko back in the crease is massive, and really makes life that much more difficult for the Predators. It’s been a very successful season for the Predators, but the Canucks are just too loaded from an offensive perspective. Pick — Canucks beat Predators 4-1
Austin: These two teams are fascinatingly similar. Overachieving rosters? Check. Norris Trophy candidates? Check. Jack Adams Award candidates? Check. Elite Swedish forward at the top of the lineup? Check. Goaltender capable of stealing a series? Check. That’s why this series might be closer than the standings would indicate. With Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and J.T. Miller leading the way, the Canucks have more than enough offensive firepower to advance. That said, no team generated expected goals at a higher rate than the Predators down the stretch. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, and Ryan O’Reilly were driving that bus, but all four lines were chipping in on offense. This series might ultimately be decided by which goalie blinks first. Juuse Saros and Thatcher Demko are two of the best in the business, and they can erase a lot of mistakes. Given the way they played down the stretch, as well as the wealth of playoff experience on the roster, I think the Predators pull off the upset against a highly skilled Canucks team. Pick — Predators beat Canucks 4-3
(2) Oilers vs. (3) Kings
Chris: The Kings nearly ended up facing the Stars, but were able to come back and defeat the Blackhawks in Game 82 to earn this matchup against the Oilers. While the Stars are a juggernaut, the Oilers are certainly no slouch. After dealing with a lower-body injury late in the regular season, Connor McDavid returned to the ice and even made some history in the process. The biggest question mark when it comes to Edmonton’s postseason chances has always lied in between the pipes. However, Stuart Skinner played extremely well over the final two months of the regular season. As long as that continues to be the case, I just think that the Oilers have too much firepower for the Kings to handle. Los Angeles is a middle-of-the-pack scoring team, and I believe that McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and company will be a buzzsaw that the Kings aren’t ready for. Pick — Oilers beat Kings 4-1
Austin: It’s Groundhog Day all over again. In each of the last two years, the Oilers have eliminated the Kings in the first round. Is the third time the charm for Los Angeles? We’re about to find out. As is usually the case, the Oilers boast an explosive offense with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl capable of putting a touchdown on the scoreboard at a moment’s notice. They’re joined by now 50-goal-scorer Zach Hyman, who has dominated the netfront all season. The good news for the Kings is that they seem uniquely positioned to combat the high-powered Oilers. Los Angeles is content to drag the game into the mud, and it remains an elite defensive squad. The big problem for the Kings is that not even the 2002-03 New Jersey Devils could completely shut down McDavid and Co. They will get their chances and their goals. When Edmonton does light the lamp, who can Los Angeles rely on to answer the bell? Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe are talented players, but the Kings might lack the horses to keep up with the Oilers in this one. Pick — Oilers beat Kings 4-1
Eastern Conference
(1) Rangers vs. (WC2) Capitals
Chris: The Rangers’ postseason hopes were dashed early on during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but they certainly rebounded with a stellar 2024 regular season. Artemi Panarin had a sensational year in which he tallied his first career 100-point season with 120 points (49 goals & 71 assists). Panarin has been underwhelming at times throughout his playoff career, so the Rangers will definitely need Panarin to lead the way throughout the postseason from an offensive standpoint. Meanwhile, the Capitals drug themselves across the finish line to qualify for the postseason, but it’s hard to imagine the Capitals giving the Rangers a run for their money. As long as Igor Shesterkin has a solid performance in net, the Rangers should roll. Pick — Rangers beat Capitals 4-1
Austin: Anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but this matchup is really pushing the boundaries of “anything.” These Capitals and their minus-37 goal differential might be the worst team to make the playoffs in my lifetime. Beating any other team in this playoff field would be a tall task for them, but knocking off the President’s Trophy winners seems especially far-fetched. The Rangers have some filthy offensive weapons with Artemi Panarin coming off a 120-point season, and he is surrounded by Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere. Simply put, the Caps don’t have a fraction of that offense. As fun as it will be to see Alex Ovechkin in the playoffs once again, that’s not enough for Washington to pull off the upset. If Charlie Lindgren can keep his awe-inspiring play between the pipes going, the Capitals might have a puncher’s chance. The kicker there is that the Rangers have the 2022 Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin, in the crease. I’d be surprised if this becomes a long series. Pick — Rangers beat Capitals 4-0
(2) Hurricanes vs. (3) Islanders
Chris: The Hurricanes have added quite a bit of talent over the last calendar year, and look primed for a deep Stanley Cup run. Jake Guentzel has been tremendous since coming over from the Penguins at the trade deadline. Skating with a line alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis has really elevated Guentzel’s game to another level. The Hurricanes also are one of the few teams in the playoff field that have the luxury of two top-tier netminders in Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. Andersen will presumably be the starter for Game 1, but even if he struggles, head coach Rod Brind’Amour can turn to Kochetkov, who played extremely well when Anderson was out of the lineup earlier this season. Pick — Hurricanes beat Islanders 4-1
Austin: In one corner, the Hurricanes are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender that only upgraded as the season progressed. In the other corner is an underwhelming Islanders team that needed a crazy late-season push just to get here. Carolina has been trying to get over the postseason hump for a few years now, and this seems like the year to do it. The Canes’ defense is still borderline impenetrable, and Frederik Andersen returned late in the regular season and looked like a goaltender ready to dominate the postseason. The only question about the Hurricanes was their finishing talent, and that was addressed with the trade deadline acquisitions of Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov. The Islanders, on the other hand, were a bit of a mess throughout the season. They made a coaching change, going from Lane Lambert to Patrick Roy, and their defensive numbers did take a notable step forward with Roy behind the bench. On top of that, the Islanders goaltending duo of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov might be the best in the playoffs. The narrow path to victory for New York is clear. Play lockdown defense and have the goalie stand on his head. It could happen, but I’m not betting on it. Pick — Hurricanes beat Islanders 4-1
(1) Panthers vs. (WC1) Lightning
Chris: The battle for bragging rights in the Sunshine State is arguably one of the more intriguing series of the first round. The Panthers looked like arguably the top team in the East entering the final month of the season, but they did have caught a slide entering the final two weeks. However, Florida did enough down the stretch to edge out Boston for the Atlantic Division crown. On the other hand, the Lightning are proven playoff contenders that are paced by NHL points leader Nikita Kucherov. Obviously, having a goaltender that is battle-tested like Andrei Vasilevskiy is a huge plus, but I just think that the Panthers are a talented enough team to solve Vasilevskiy to win what could be a lengthy series. Pick — Panthers beat Lightning 4-3
Austin: The Battle of Florida always delivers, and for the first time in recent memory, I think the Panthers have the clear upper hand. After their incredible run to the Stanley Cup Final last year, the Panthers have been among the NHL’s very best in 2023-24. Whether it’s generating scoring chances or suppressing scoring chances, Florida has been excellent at five-on-five. The same cannot be said for the Lightning, a team that was slightly underwater with its expected goals share. Despite that clear edge in favor of the Panthers, it’s not hard to imagine the Bolts springing the upset. Tampa has a championship pedigree, a dominant power play, and one of the best goalies on this rotating rock. That can be a recipe for success in the playoffs. It also helps that Nikita Kucherov just dropped 44 goals and 100 assists on the rest of the league. All that said, the Panthers found out what it takes to go on a deep postseason run last year. Players like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Reinhart won’t be intimidated by the rings on the other side. The Panthers finally get the electric monkey off their back. Pick — Panthers beat Lightning 4-2
(2) Bruins vs. (3) Maple Leafs
Chris: Perhaps I’ll regret this, but I’m siding with the Maple Leafs in this series. Toronto is absolutely loaded at the top, and Auston Matthews has been a proven playoff producer in each of the last two seasons. Yes, it’s noteworthy that the Bruins won all four matchups during the regular season, but the Bruins limped into the postseason and should be facing the Lightning rather than the Maple Leafs. One of the biggest storylines in this series could be the talent drop-off after David Pastrnak. Sure, Pastrnak tallied 110 points on the season, but they didn’t have anyone else that even touched the 70-point mark. If the Maple Leafs defense can do enough to limit Pastrnak’s opportunities, this could be a series that Toronto can steal. Pick — Maple Leafs beat Bruins 4-3
Austin: As Maple Leafs fans know all too well, this matchup has always gone the Bruins’ way in recent history. If Toronto is going to get over this hurdle, it has to find a way to consistently beat one of the best defensive teams and one of the best goaltending duos in the game today. Letting Auston Matthews shoot the puck early and often might be a good start in that regard. Matthews scored 69 goals in the regular season, and the Leafs’ star power doesn’t end there with William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares rounding out the “Core Four.” Of course, that core hasn’t done much against the Bruins, a team that keeps plugging along despite key offseason losses. Even after losing Patrice Bergeron, Boston was able to remain atop the NHL due to David Pastrnak being a stone cold killer, superb team defense, and rock-solid goaltending. All that said, the Bruins have looked more vulnerable than usual this year, with their five-on-five play sagging a bit. If the Maple Leafs can seize the opportunity, they’ll exorcise this New England demon in dramatic fashion. Pick — Maple Leafs beat Bruins 4-3
Stanley Cup winner
Chris: I’ve always been a proponent of sticking with my preseason Stanley Cup pick barring something catastrophic happening with that team. The Hurricanes were my pick at the start of the 2023-24 season, and I see no reason not to ride the wave. When the trade deadline rolled around, the Hurricanes did something that they traditionally shy away from — making a splash. Carolina acquired star winger Jake Guentzel and forward Evgeny Kuznetsov to bolster a forward group that was already quite talented. Guentzel has been sensational since arriving in Raleigh, and makes this team all the more dangerous. The likes of the Rangers, Panthers, and Bruins are certainly worthy foes, but it’s worth noting that the Hurricanes were nipping at the Rangers’ heels down the stretch after not having goaltender Frederik Anderson for the majority of the year. From a Western Conference standpoint, the Stars are definitely capable of making a deep run if they can get past the scrappy Golden Knights in the opening round. These would certainly be the two best teams in my book, but I trust the goaltending and scoring depth of the Hurricanes way more in a series. Pick — Hurricanes beat Stars 4-3
Austin: The Stanley Cup Playoffs are often a war of attrition, and the Stars have a unique combination of high-end talent and depth. The forward group is littered with big names like Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn. The blue line, led by shutdown expert Miro Heiskanen and budding star Thomas Harly, only got better when Dallas snagged Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames last month. The Stars’ only clear flaw for most of the season was in goal, with Jake Oettinger struggling. Well, in the closing weeks of the regular season, Oettinger finally looked like himself again and is red hot heading into the postseason. Now you’d need the Hubble telescope to find an issue with this team. There is a non-zero chance Dallas has to go through the Golden Knights, Oilers and Avalanche just to reach the Stanley Cup Final. That’s an arduous path, but no team is better positioned to navigate it than the Stars. On the other side of the bracket, the Hurricanes’ upgrades pay off, and they finally get over the hump to reach the Final. Unfortunately for them, they run into a loaded and battle-tested Stars lineup. Pick — Stars beat Hurricanes 4-2
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