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Virus Hit to Sweden's Economy Seen Among Least Bad in Europe – BNN

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(Bloomberg) —

Data this week could confirm how Sweden’s contentious decision to avoid a full lockdown at the start of the coronavirus pandemic has spared its economy from the worst of the fallout.

On Wednesday, Sweden will publish a keenly anticipated flash indicator for second-quarter GDP, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a 7% contraction, according to median estimates.

While that would mark an unprecedented drop for the Nordic region’s biggest economy, it’s considerably less than the recent hits suffered in the U.S. and the 19-member euro area.

“The Swedish economy has not been unscathed, despite its light-touch lockdown, but we think that the quarterly drop in GDP in the second quarter is likely to have been about one-third of that seen in the euro-zone,“ said David Oxley, an economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.

But the strategy has also resulted in Sweden having one of the highest death rates in the world, at 56.4 per 100,000, and it’s unclear whether the economy will fare much better than in neighboring Denmark and Norway, which initially imposed strict lockdowns and have seen substantially lower fatalities.

“We do not know how the virus strategy will affect the economies in the long run,” said Nordea economist Torbjorn Isaksson in emailed comments. “Our Nordic neighbors locked down but may be able to open up and normalize faster.”

What economists are saying…

  • Nordea expects a “painful” drop in GDP by 8.5% q/q and 8% y/y in 2Q, in line with the Riksbank’s view
  • Swedbank foresees a 2Q GDP contraction of 7.5% q/q and 7.0% y/y, making it “the biggest GDP drop in memory”
  • SEB expects a GDP drop of 8.0% q/q and 7.7% y/y, saying that “GDP is most likely start to recover in 3Q, though strength of the upturn remains uncertain.”
  • Danske Bank economists see Swedish GDP falling 7.1% y/y and -6.3% q/q
  • Capital Economics expects GDP to drop 4% q/q and 3.7 y/y, which would be “about half as big as that of the Riksbank and other forecasters.” They also add that the economy has “still faced a deep crunch by normal standards.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Hungary extends loan moratorium as economy struggles to recover from pandemic – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST (Reuters) – Hungary will extend a moratorium on loan repayments for some households and companies until the middle of 2021, as its finance minister warned the economy could struggle to grow next year unless a coronavirus vaccine is found.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban introduced the moratorium for all companies and private borrowers in March as one of his government’s key measures to help reduce the economic fallout from the pandemic. It was due to expire at the end of the year.

In a video posted on his official Facebook page on Saturday, Orban said the moratorium would be extended by six months for families with children, the retired, unemployed and those in public works programmes.

The extension until the middle of 2021 will also apply to companies that have seen revenues drop by at least 25%.

Orban also said loan contracts for all households and companies agreed before the pandemic could not be terminated for six months.

The moves come as the government prepares to announce more steps to try to revive growth, after the economy plunged more than expected in the second quarter and prospects for a recovery next year have worsened.

The weak economic outlook could represent the biggest threat to nationalist Orban’s decade-long rule as he prepares to face parliamentary elections in the first half of 2022.

Finance minister Mihaly Varga said in an interview published earlier on Saturday that if a coronavirus vaccine was not available by the middle of 2021 the economy might struggle to grow next year, based on a pessimistic scenario.

Under an optimistic scenario, the economy could grow by 4-5% if a vaccine was available in the second quarter, he told newspaper Magyar Nemzet.

A third scenario was for a protracted recovery with 3%-4% growth, also conditional on a vaccine being available, he added.

Hungary’s economy is expected to shrink by 5%-6% this year.

Varga said the government was working on new stimulus measures that could include targeted tax cuts for crisis-hit sectors.

After a spike in new cases in recent weeks, Hungary reported 809 new coronavirus infections on Saturday, bringing the total to 16,920, with 675 deaths.

(Reporting by Krisztina Than; Editing by David Clarke and Mark Potter)

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Hungary extends loan moratorium as economy struggles to recover from pandemic – The Guardian

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By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST (Reuters) – Hungary will extend a moratorium on loan repayments for some households and companies until the middle of 2021, as its finance minister warned the economy could struggle to grow next year unless a coronavirus vaccine is found.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban introduced the moratorium for all companies and private borrowers in March as one of his government’s key measures to help reduce the economic fallout from the pandemic. It was due to expire at the end of the year.

In a video posted on his official Facebook page on Saturday, Orban said the moratorium would be extended by six months for families with children, the retired, unemployed and those in public works programmes.

The extension until the middle of 2021 will also apply to companies that have seen revenues drop by at least 25%.

Orban also said loan contracts for all households and companies agreed before the pandemic could not be terminated for six months.

The moves come as the government prepares to announce more steps to try to revive growth, after the economy plunged more than expected in the second quarter and prospects for a recovery next year have worsened.

The weak economic outlook could represent the biggest threat to nationalist Orban’s decade-long rule as he prepares to face parliamentary elections in the first half of 2022.

Finance minister Mihaly Varga said in an interview published earlier on Saturday that if a coronavirus vaccine was not available by the middle of 2021 the economy might struggle to grow next year, based on a pessimistic scenario.

Under an optimistic scenario, the economy could grow by 4-5% if a vaccine was available in the second quarter, he told newspaper Magyar Nemzet.

A third scenario was for a protracted recovery with 3%-4% growth, also conditional on a vaccine being available, he added.

Hungary’s economy is expected to shrink by 5%-6% this year.

Varga said the government was working on new stimulus measures that could include targeted tax cuts for crisis-hit sectors.

After a spike in new cases in recent weeks, Hungary reported 809 new coronavirus infections on Saturday, bringing the total to 16,920, with 675 deaths.

(Reporting by Krisztina Than; Editing by David Clarke and Mark Potter)

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Why falling immigration isn't that bad for the economy during COVID-19 – Yahoo Canada Finance

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COVID-19 travel restrictions have put a big dent in immigration, widely seen as something the economy relies on, but the negative effects aren’t as bad as they might seem.

The latest government numbers show 13,645 fewer permanent residents came to Canada in July, down 63 per cent from the same month last year. April and June were similarly weak periods, making the likelihood of reaching the federal government’s target of 341,000 less likely.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="For a country like Canada with an aging population and relatively low population growth, immigration is needed to counter demographic headwinds. But the pandemic’s effects more generally, far outweigh the specific negative effects of lower immigration.” data-reactid=”18″>For a country like Canada with an aging population and relatively low population growth, immigration is needed to counter demographic headwinds. But the pandemic’s effects more generally, far outweigh the specific negative effects of lower immigration.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“I think we need to keep the incremental impact of new immigration on economic growth in perspective. Even at its maximum pace in recent years, it was adding roughly 1 per cent to population per year and roughly the same to the labour force.” BMO chief economist Doug Porter told Yahoo Finance Canada.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”19″>“I think we need to keep the incremental impact of new immigration on economic growth in perspective. Even at its maximum pace in recent years, it was adding roughly 1 per cent to population per year and roughly the same to the labour force.” BMO chief economist Doug Porter told Yahoo Finance Canada

“So, even a complete shutdown of immigration would (roughly) shave 1 percentage point from growth (or a bit less). Not small by any means, but that compares with what could be a 6 per cent drop in GDP (OECD said -5.8 per cent for this year, we are looking at -5.5 per cent).”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Around 1.1 million Canadians are still out of work, so immigrant workers aren’t exactly in high demand these days.” data-reactid=”21″>Around 1.1 million Canadians are still out of work, so immigrant workers aren’t exactly in high demand these days.

“Overall, given the realities of COVID and the now-soft demand for labour, the cool down in immigration by itself will not be particularly harmful — and certainly less so than it would have been say a year ago.” said Porter.

Long term effects without immigration

Pedro Antunes, the Conference Board of Canada’s chief economist, also thinks the effects are mitigated in the short-term but that doesn’t mean the economy will be totally unscathed.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“Some sectors will be affected because immigration drives consumer spending, demand for housing, and other services directly related to increased population,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada.” data-reactid=”25″>“Some sectors will be affected because immigration drives consumer spending, demand for housing, and other services directly related to increased population,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada.

However, he believes it’s more important to look at the long term repercussions of reduced immigration.

“Canada’s underlying capacity is dependent on private and public investment, adoption of technology and the number of workers (and the skills of those workers). We know from our prior research that without immigration, our labour force would be flat or declining (since exiting baby-boomers outnumber school leavers),” said Antunes.

“If immigration levels are reduced over a few years (we think 2020 and 2021 at least) the result is a long-lasting impact on our potential (or productive capacity).”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Jessy Bains is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter&nbsp;@jessysbains.” data-reactid=”29″>Jessy Bains is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jessysbains.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Android.” data-reactid=”30″>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.

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