‘Tis the time for massive volumes of numbers detailing the particulars of consumers’ responses to gift buying. This year, that also incorporates uncertainty, inflation, and supply chain issues. So far, the results aren’t crushing by any means for retailers and the overall economy (which, let’s remember, is about 68% consumer spending). But they’re not that exciting, either.
A warning: the data is provided by companies that offer systems and information for retail supply chain or marketing management. Figure that colors the presentations and assumptions.
First up, Sensormatic Solutions, part of Johnson Controls
JCI
, which itself is big in technologies for buildings, energy, retail, and some other sectors. Its preliminary data on in-store shopping on Black Friday suggested a 47.5% increase over 2020, which sounds good until you remember that during a tough time in the pandemic, many people weren’t all that excited about being in crowds.
Sensormatic also has data comparing 2021 to 2019, the previous “normal” year. Shopper visits were down 28.3% from then. Visits to stores on Thanksgiving Day were down 90.4% from 2019. Which doesn’t seem necessarily a bad thing. But, even if no one in the business is saying, this is likely freaking out many in retail who have been looking to regular patterns for the holidays.
Adobe
ADBE
tracks online shopping and had expected spending on Thanksgiving Day to be between $5.1 billion and $5.4 billion, with the final coming in at the low end. Similarly, Black Friday, during which people spent $8.9 billion, was also at the low end of the predicted range and, interestingly, slightly lower than in 2020.
Both numbers are well up over 2019, with Black Friday hitting $7.4 billion and Thanksgiving Day, $4.2 billion.
A couple of possibilities speak to both the economy and many, though clearly not all, consumers worried about being in crowds, especially with news of the Covid omicron variant. An obvious one is to factor inflation into the analysis.
Costs have been rising, so is there any wonder that results might come in on the low side of estimates, especially when the practice of forecasting is to create an informational circus that the more comfortable can chew over? Using dollars as the measure, the numbers now mean smaller amounts of consumption than once might have happened. With the official measure of inflation, the consumer price index, running 6.9% since October 2020, maybe the number is more analogous to $5.1 billion less than 6.9%, or $4.74 billion. Then add another 1.2% of inflation in 2020, so a total now of 8.1%. That makes the $5.1 billion more like $4.68 billion, so much closer to 2019, with much of the growth due to inflation and not organic expansion.
Another possibility is that many people are still hurting financially from the pandemic crash. The worlds of finance and media often focus on medians or averages. If they seem to be in acceptable shape, then the prognosis is a strong economy.
Except, averages are usually top weighted, meaning that the fortunes of the financially fortunate at the apex of the socioeconomic mountain are so large that they pull the results up. Describe the economy by the average and you almost always automatically put lipstick on a rogue swine. Use the median instead and too easily people forget that half of the population does worse and half better.
Statistics can be powerful and useful, but still limited if people don’t pay attention to the distribution—the picture of how fortune, and the machinations of humankind, allot outcomes, good and not, among everyone.
Millions struggle with meeting rents that rise far faster than their incomes. At the end of September, consumers paid 10.5% more than the year before to obtain meat, poultry, fish, and eggs. It is expensive to just live for a large portion of the country.
Tracking of spending at the holidays ignores that issue. Granted, business affects jobs which have an impact on everyone. But public fascination is another distraction from what a broader view of the economy would provide. And that says quite a bit about where we are, fiscally and morally.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
