Owning a home remains the largest single investment for most Canadians. So it’s not surprising that fear over an economy turned upside down literally hits home for so many.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently warned the pandemic and resulting lockdown of the economy could drive the country’s average home prices down by between nine per cent and 18 per cent, as job loss and uncertainty force many Canadians to the sidelines. The federal housing agency expects the housing sector will not return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.
Most of the concern centres on oil-producing regions hit hard by the crash in crude prices. Housing analysts also point out vulnerability in big cities; especially the booming Vancouver and Toronto condo markets.
That’s potential bad news for speculators or those who just bought a home in a vulnerable region and want to sell in the next three years. For most long-term homeowners who can maintain a sufficient source of income, the best and safest investment remains the roof over their head.
According to the CMHC, average Canadian house values have increased by over five per cent annually over 25-year periods going back to the Second World War. That includes the 2008 global financial meltdown when predictions for a housing market collapse never materialized.
Many homeowners have already benefited from the pre-pandemic housing boom, and for new homeowners, any decline over the next three years can easily be absorbed once the market gets back on track.
For potential homeowners, the next three years could finally open an affordable window to the residential real estate market. One of the biggest pre-pandemic risks in the housing market was the threat of higher mortgage rates, but massive government spending and the resulting drag on economic growth mean that borrowing rates will likely remain low for a long time.
While a home should never be the only investment in a retirement portfolio, it’s unique from other investments in terms of risk. A short-term theoretical drop in the value of a home is not the same as a drop in the value of a stock or something like bitcoin. In most cases, homes are bought and sold far less frequently, which decreases the risk of making a price decline a real loss and allows time for it to recover.
What really sets a home apart from any other investment is its intrinsic value. A home is considered real estate. That means it is a real, tangible, asset and will always have a significant basic value. Other equity investments have intrinsic values, but they can be difficult to measure consistently in relation to their price. Bitcoin, for example, has no intrinsic value because it is backed by nothing. The only value in bitcoin, and many other equities that trade on public exchanges, is a belief by investors that it has the intrinsic value reflected in its trading price.
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The intrinsic value of a home comes in part from the fact that it is the only investment you can actually live in. It’s an asset you can rest your head in it at the end of the day no matter what value the market places on it. In addition to the potential for it to go up in value over time, a home pays a sort of dividend equal to the cost of rent if you didn’t own a home. A home can also generate income by renting out all or part of it.
Home ownership also allows average investors to build equity by borrowing at a low interest rate in the form of a mortgage by using the property as collateral. Over time, that equity can be used to borrow at a low interest rate through a home equity line of credit (HELOC).
Perhaps the biggest and hardest measure of the intrinsic value of a home to quantify comes from its newfound role as sanctuary during a global pandemic. The value of a home in a time when social distancing could become the norm for years to come is immeasurable. Being cooped up with the people closest to your heart can be frustrating at times but can offer rewards well beyond its market value.
Although the economy has been turned upside down there will always be an economy as long as there is demand for something. Investment trends may come and go but the desire to own a home will always drive demand.
Payback Time is a weekly column by personal finance columnist Dale Jackson about how to prepare your finances for retirement. Have a question you want answered? Email dalejackson.paybacktime@gmail.com.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
