Anyone worried about interest rates, economic growth and jobs numbers is bracing for a busy and consequential week. Canadians will be hit by a tsunami of economic data over the next 10 days.
The latest inflation numbers, data on how much stuff Canada’s economy is cranking out and a key reading on the mood of consumers won’t just tell us how the economy has performed through the first half of the year, they’ll set policy decisions that will dictate how the rest of the year will unfold.
“I would say it’s very important,” said RBC economist Carrie Freestone.
Freestone said she believes the Bank of Canada will probably raise rates when it meets on July 12, but that this week’s data should tell us all we need to know about the bank’s decision.
“We think they’re gonna go 25 (basis points). They could have to hike higher if we’re in a situation where expectations are not tamed,” she told CBC News.
The Bank of Canada has been aggressively raising interest rates in an attempt to rein in inflation. The theory is that as rates rise, consumers are squeezed by higher debt payments.
With more money going toward servicing their debt, Canadians have less of it to spend anywhere else. That tends to slow down the economy and bring down prices — which is exactly what the Bank of Canada is trying to accomplish with rate hikes in the first place: bring down inflation.
The problem is through most of this year, economic data have come in hotter than expected.
Gross domestic product, the total value of all goods and services produced by the country’s economy, grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023. Canadian employers have added more than 230,000 jobs so far this year.
Retail sales are up — but not because people are buying more
Retail sales numbers from Statistics Canada show increases in all sectors but furniture, appliances and electronics. Analysts say it is due to higher prices rather than people making more purchases, which has them forecasting another interest rate hike in July.
And just last week, retail sales figures showed Canadian consumers were still spending at rates that just don’t show an economy that is slowing.
“In some ways it feels like in the Road Runner when Wile E. Coyote runs off a cliff and he just hasn’t looked down yet,” said Randall Bartlett, the senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins Group.
“Households are getting more and more squeezed, but they’re continuing to behave in a way that doesn’t necessarily reflect that reality of higher borrowing costs and higher inflation,” said Bartlett.
And that’s why this week’s data are so important.
Prices continue to rise, but slower
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say year over year inflation numbers will show a sharp deceleration in price growth. Inflation peaked last summer at 8.1 per cent. Prices continue to rise, but at a steadily slower pace.
This week, economists expect some solid progress in the fight to rein in inflation. RBC’s forecast shows headline inflation likely fell to 3.6 per cent.
“It’s a huge drop,” said RBC’s Claire Fan. “But a lot of that decline can be explained away by lower energy prices.”
Last May, gas prices were climbing inexorably toward a peak above $2 per litre. Compare that to gasoline prices in May of this year, where they hovered between $1.50 and $1.60.
Gas prices are down 36 per cent from this time last year. (Robert Short/CBC)
Fan says that drop will help consumers weather higher prices. But she says the Bank of Canada is looking for a sustained drop in a measure of inflation that economists call the core rate because it strips out volatile things like gasoline and food, which tend to move up and down a lot.
She says the central bank will be watching GDP numbers closely as well.
Her forecast shows economic growth in April will come in flat. But Fan says that month saw a strike by the Public Service Alliance of Canada. If you strip out the economic impact of that, she says the economy expanded once again in April.
Most economists assume a rate hike is coming
Data on GDP and inflation give folks like Fan and others some hard numbers to gauge how the economy is doing, but two releases from the central bank also set to come out this week should paint a picture of how Canadian businesses and consumers are feeling.
The Business Outlook Survey tells us how businesses feel about the state of the economy today and how they expect to adjust hiring and investments over the course of the rest of the year. Similarly, the Survey of Consumer Expectations provides a glimpse into how households are managing inflation, higher borrowing costs and whether they intend to slow down consumer spending.
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Right now, most economists assume the Bank of Canada has another interest rate increase up its sleeve. The bank has repeatedly said the perils of high inflation are a threat to everyone and risk upending financial stability. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has said he needs to see economic growth slow further as evidence of the kind of progress the bank is looking for.
Fan, for one, said she thinks it will take considerable changes to the forecast for the bank to back away from another increase in interest rates.
“It would likely take substantial downside surprises in data releases (i.e., lower inflation and / or GDP data) to prevent another hike at the next meeting in July,” she wrote in a note to clients.
But if there’s been one constant in these three and a half years or so, it’s that every time economists say they have a handle on what’s going to happen next, the data come in as a surprise.
Montreal Alouettes wide receiver Tyson Philpot has announced he will be out for the rest of the CFL season.
The Delta, B.C., native posted the news on his Instagram page Thursday.
“To Be Continued. Shoutout my team, the fans of the CFL and the whole city of Montreal! I can’t wait to be back healthy and write this next chapter in 2025,” the statement read.
Philpot, 24, injured his foot in a 33-23 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Aug. 10 and was placed on the six-game injured list the next week.
The six-foot-one, 195-pound receiver had 58 receptions, 779 yards and five touchdowns in nine games for the league-leading Alouettes in his third season.
Philpot scored the game-winning touchdown in Montreal’s Grey Cup win last season to punctuate a six-reception, 63-yard performance.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained a concussion for the third time in his NFL career, leaving his team’s game Thursday night against Buffalo after running into defensive back Damar Hamlin and hitting the back of his head against the turf.
Tagovailoa remained down for about two minutes before getting to his feet and walking to the sideline after the play in the third quarter. He made his way to the tunnel not long afterward, looking into the stands before smiling and departing toward the locker room.
The Dolphins needed almost no time before announcing it was a concussion. The team said he had two during the 2022 season, and Tagovailoa was diagnosed with another concussion when he was a college player at Alabama.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Tagovailoa would get “proper procedural evaluation” and “appropriate care” on Friday.
“The furthest thing from my mind is, ‘What is the timeline?’ We just need to evaluate and just worry about my teammate, like the rest of the guys are,” McDaniel said. “We’ll get more information tomorrow and take it day by day from here.”
Some players saw Tagovailoa in the locker room after the game and said they were encouraged. Tagovailoa spoke with some players and then went home after the game, McDaniel said.
“I have a lot of love for Tua, built a great relationship with him,” said quarterback Skylar Thompson, who replaced Tagovailoa after the injury. “You care about the person more than the player and everybody in the organization would say the same thing. Just really praying for Tua and hopefully everything will come out all right.”
Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212 million extension before this season — a deal that makes him one of the highest-paid players in the NFL — and was the NFL’s leading passer in Week 1 this season. Tagovailoa left with the Dolphins trailing 31-10, and that was the final score.
“If you know Tua outside of football, you can’t help but feel for him,” Bills quarterback Josh Allen said on Amazon following the game. “He’s a great football player but he’s an even greater human being. He’s one of the best humans on the planet. I’ve got a lot of love for him and I’m just praying for him and his family, hoping everything’s OK. But it’s tough, man. This game of football that we play, it’s got its highs and it’s got its lows — and this is one of the lows.”
Tagovailoa’s college years and first three NFL seasons were marred by injury, though he positioned himself for a big pay bump with an injury-free and productive 2023 as he led the Dolphins into the playoffs. He threw for 29 touchdowns and a league-best 4,624 yards last year.
When, or if, he can come back this season is anyone’s guess. Tagovailoa said in April 2023 that the concussions he had in the 2022 season left him contemplating his playing future. “I think I considered it for a time,” he said then, when asked if he considered stepping away from the game to protect himself.
McDaniel said it’s not his place to say if Tagovailoa should return to football. “He’ll be evaluated and we’ll have conversations and progress as appropriate,” McDaniel said.
Tagovailoa was hurt Thursday on a fourth-down keeper with about 4:30 left in the third. He went straight ahead into Hamlin and did not slide, leading with his right shoulder instead.
Hamlin was the player who suffered a cardiac arrest after making a tackle during a Monday night game in January 2023 at Cincinnati, causing the NFL to suspend a pivotal game that quickly lost significance in the aftermath of a scary scene that unfolded in front of a national television audience.
Tagovailoa wound up on his back, both his hands in the air and Bills players immediately pointed at him as if to suggest there was an injury. Dolphins center Aaron Brewer quickly did the same, waving to the sideline.
Tagovailoa appeared to be making a fist with his right hand as he lay on the ground. It was movement consistent with something that is referred to as the “fencing response,” which can be common after a traumatic brain injury.
Tagovailoa eventually got to his feet. McDaniel grabbed the side of his quarterback’s head and gave him a kiss on the cheek as Tagovailoa departed. Thompson came into the game to take Tagovailoa’s spot.
“I love Tua on and off the football field,” Bills edge Von Miller said. “I’m a huge fan of him. I can empathize and sympathize with him because I’ve been there. I wish him the best.”
Tagovailoa’s history with concussions — and how he has since worked to avoid them — is a huge part of the story of his career, and now comes to the forefront once again.
He had at least two concussions during the 2022 season. He was hurt in a Week 3 game against Buffalo and cleared concussion protocol, though he appeared disoriented on that play but returned to the game.
The NFL later changed its concussion protocol to mandate that if a player shows possible concussion symptoms — including a lack of balance or stability — he must sit out the rest of the game.
Less than a week later, in a Thursday night game at Cincinnati, Tagovailoa was concussed on a scary hit that briefly knocked him unconscious and led to him being taken off the field on a stretcher.
His second known concussion of that season came in a December game against Green Bay, and he didn’t play for the rest of the 2022 season. After that, Tagovailoa began studying ways where he may be able to fall more safely and protect himself against further injury — including studying jiu-jitsu.
“I’m not worried about anything that’s out of my hands,” McDaniel said. “I’m just worried about the human being.”
NEW YORK (AP) — When her husband turns on the television to hear news about the upcoming presidential election, that’s often a signal for Lori Johnson Malveaux to leave the room.
It can get to be too much. Often, she’ll go to a TV in another room to watch a movie on the Hallmark Channel or BET. She craves something comforting and entertaining. And in that, she has company.
While about half of Americans say they are following political news “extremely” or “very” closely, about 6 in 10 say they need to limit how much information they consume about the government and politics to avoid feeling overloaded or fatigued, according to a new survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts.
Make no mistake: Malveaux plans to vote. She always does. “I just get to the point where I don’t want to hear the rhetoric,” she said.
The 54-year-old Democrat said she’s most bothered when she hears people on the news telling her that something she saw with her own eyes — like the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol — didn’t really happen.
“I feel like I’m being gaslit. That’s the way to put it,” she said.
Sometimes it feels like ‘a bombardment’
Caleb Pack, 23, a Republican from Ardmore, Oklahoma, who works in IT, tries to keep informed through the news feeds on his phone, which is stocked with a variety of sources, including CNN, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press.
Yet sometimes, Pack says, it seems like a bombardment.
“It’s good to know what’s going on, but both sides are pulling a little bit extreme,” he said. “It just feels like it’s a conversation piece everywhere, and it’s hard to escape it.”
Media fatigue isn’t a new phenomenon. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in late 2019 found roughly two in three Americans felt worn out by the amount of news there is, about the same as in a poll taken in early 2018. During the 2016 presidential campaign, about 6 in 10 people felt overloaded by campaign news.
But it can be particularly acute with news related to politics. The AP-NORC/USAFacts poll found that half of Americans feel a need to limit their consumption of information related to crime or overseas conflicts, while only about 4 in 10 are limiting news about the economy and jobs.
It’s easy to understand, with television outlets like CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC full of political talk and a wide array of political news online, sometimes complicated by disinformation.
“There’s a glut of information,” said Richard Coffin, director of research and advocacy for USAFacts, “and people are having a hard time figuring out what is true or not.”
Women are more likely to feel they need to limit media
In the AP-NORC poll, about 6 in 10 men said they follow news about elections and politics at least “very” closely, compared to about half of women. For all types of news, not just politics, women are more likely than men to report the need to limit their media consumption, the survey found.
White adults are also more likely than Black or Hispanic adults to say they need to limit media consumption on politics, the poll found.
Kaleb Aravzo, 19, a Democrat, gets a baseline of news by listening to National Public Radio in the morning at home in Logan, Utah. Too much politics, particularly when he’s on social media sites like TikTok and Instagram, can trigger anxiety and depression.
“If it pops up on my page when I’m on social media,” he said, “I’ll just scroll past it.”
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Sanders reported from Washington. David Bauder writes about media for the AP. Follow him at http://x.com/dbauder.
The AP poll of 1,019 adults was conducted July 29-August 8, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
